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Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@rbdoeker Evidence suggests that VPs don't matter much in electoral terms. The only real exceptions are klunkers like Palin. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@brianros1 @madebyhistory @EKamarck @smgillon Perfect example: Obama in 2008 needed Biden's foreign policy experience as Senate committee chair. Biden in 2020 does not seemingly need this kind of expertise, despite his comfort level with Susan Rice. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
I've been convinced by the political science data analysis: Political VP picks (or any VP pick) don't move the needle for long in a presidential race. Most examples of VP's that affected the votes are negative like Palin. Best Biden can do is to make a serious pick and hope. — PolitiTweet.org
Ronald Brownstein @RonBrownstein
Another account documenting the ominously bad judgment swirling around Biden's VP thinking: the conclusion "he will… https://t.co/siuFy8M3gT
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@brianros1 @madebyhistory @EKamarck @smgillon I'm a huge Mondale fan. But I think his model became unfairly discredited partly because of Carter's defeat and partly because even Mondale himself didn't follow it in picking his own running mate. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@brianros1 @madebyhistory Agree. But Mondale was an anomaly given the choices of Bush (runner-up to nomination), Ferraro (make history), Quayle (lightweight) and Bentsen (old regional balancing) in the 1980s. I'm with @EKamarck in her new book that the real VP transition was Gore. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
My radical position on Biden's VP: He can pick whoever he wants to help him govern. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
How about calling it "The Best We Could Do Championship"? — PolitiTweet.org
Niels Lesniewski @nielslesniewski
One serious recommendation for MLB: They should call the 2020 championship something other than the World Series in the record books.
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
Given the currently papered over ideological divisions in the Democratic Party and the scores of people with presidential ambitions (both female and male), I would predict that Biden's VP would not have anything like an automatic or even an easy road to the nomination in 2024. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@ElizKaye @JRubinBlogger @JoeBiden If Biden is elected, the 2024 Democratic presidential race would start in February 2021. There's a lot to be said for a VP who would only be a major 2024 contender if she performed very well in office. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@charlesmurray @IsaacDovere What I'm saying is that the electoral effect of Bass as VP candidate would not be large. But there are obviously other questions as well. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@JuliaManhattan @CharlesPPierce Daley may well have been a bigger factor than LBJ in 1960. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@JuliaManhattan I somewhat skeptical that a Black VP will have that big an effect on African American turnout in FL or elsewhere. And, similarly, I wonder how many Cubans, who might vote Democratic, care that much about the Venceremos Brigade, nearly 50 years later. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@CharlesPPierce @JuliaManhattan Urban myth. There is no polling or other data to show that LBJ carried Texas for JFK in 1960. (It's in my piece in passing). LBJ's effect on voting counting in Texas may have been different. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@JuliaManhattan Embarrassing when you misspell the name of your publication: @newrepublic. My VP article is here: https://t.co/0QRc0O2hrD — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@JuliaManhattan I've just written a piece for @newrepublci about how political science research shows that almost all VP candidates don't make a difference in November. (Palin who cost McCain votes was a rare exception). So I'm not sure that I fully buy the pluses or minuses with Bass in FL. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
Fascinating @IsaacDovere piece on Karen Bass and the Venceremos Brigade. She argues, rather persuasively, that her many trips to Cuba in the 1970s and after show "that she didn’t lead her life focused on building a résumé or trying to rise in politics." https://t.co/hOD5xNJqmD — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
"Trump’s campaign has temporarily paused its television advertising with less than 100 days to go before the election, a move that comes amid a broader shake-up in his faltering bid for a second term." What's the new message? "Give Me a Mulligan"? https://t.co/XXE3vs3APB — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@pareene "The Mouse That Roared." — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@Bencjacobs It's right after, the passage depicting God's wrath for anyone daring to start the 10th inning with runners already on base. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@jay_jaffe No, its Feh! — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@laura_lrnzo You deserve a major job in engineering for that one. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
I'm still laughing over Trump's oft-repeated comic riff that Mexico would pay for the Wall. Or that it would be see-through and solar-powered. — PolitiTweet.org
Elizabeth Drew @ElizabethDrewOH
@JohnJHarwood Yes, it must be that Trump’s call to delay the election was a joke because it’s so funny and @realDonaldTrump is such a card.
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@Profepps It's the Trump Derangement Syndrome. I get so distracted by shiny objects (canceling the election, letting a pandemic devastate the country) that I lose sight of the devilishly clever Trump scheme to enhance the value of his failing downtown DC hotel with a new FBI building. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@UlrickKristens1 @lwood8417 @jwgop I'm certainly not belittling the Danes or Denmark. In fact, I was in Copenhagen for a delightful week in late December 2019 back when Americans were allowed into Europe. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
I'm certainly not saying that Trump's comments about postponing the election should be ignored. Hell, I tweeted about them. — PolitiTweet.org
Clyde Haberman @ClydeHaberman
@MrWalterShapiro I don’t disagree the postpone-the-election tweet is his attempt at distraction. But no president i… https://t.co/QYVPX7mvGe
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@MilliganSusan Great minds. I built my piece around the Devine and Kopko’s book. You interviewed Devine. And yet this morning in the Times I read speculation that Val Demmings would help Biden carry Florida. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
Having suggested postponing the election as a diversion from the economy and the sad death of Herman Cain, I worry that Trump will nuke Denmark for refusing to sell Greenland as his next distraction from reality. — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
TV news and online stories are filled with vaporous speculation about the political effects of Biden's VP pick. But if you look at political science research and history, the evidence is shaky or non-existent. Even LBJ winning Texas for JFK in 1960 is an urban myth. — PolitiTweet.org
The New Republic @newrepublic
Most of what you think you know about the politics of picking a VP is probably wrong, writes @MrWalterShapiro. https://t.co/Jg4yRwNy2K
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
"[Val] Demings, 63, spent 27 years in one of the most violent police departments of its size in the United States. She repeatedly defended fellow officers, dating at least to 1999." Two tough sentences for a top VP contender. https://t.co/T5KHWya5VX — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
@GreggJLevine Selig never put a ghost runner on second base. — PolitiTweet.org
