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Showing page 15 of 354.
Max Fisher @Max_Fisher
RT @ewong: Pure horror: Russian soldiers are deliberately killing Ukrainian civilians trying to flee. A mother & 2 children were killed and… — PolitiTweet.org
Max Fisher @Max_Fisher
If you’ll forgive the meta commentary, one way you can differentiate serous experts like @KofmanMichael from hot takers is that the former is willing, even eager, to acknowledge when developments are surprising or unclear — as they often are. — PolitiTweet.org
Michael Kofman @KofmanMichael
@shashj Important questions. I'm just as mystified, but less willing to offer conclusions. Everything about this op… https://t.co/a56ChQuZIu
Max Fisher @Max_Fisher
@dylanmatt Given that an NFZ would mean destroying air defenses within Russia, which would also have the unintended effect of looking exactly like the start of a decapitation assault on Moscow, odds of nuclear escalation plausibly north of 50%, potentially by a lot — PolitiTweet.org
Max Fisher @Max_Fisher
RT @John_Hudson: Drone footage shows extensive damage to Borodyanka, a Ukrainian town 30 miles northwest of Kyiv https://t.co/PsPDp2FL9a ht… — PolitiTweet.org
Max Fisher @Max_Fisher
RT @marceldirsus: Since I've seen a lot of people say that there'd never be anything like this for people from outside Europe: Germany is f… — PolitiTweet.org
Max Fisher @Max_Fisher
@cd_hooks @Noahpinion @MikeRTrice @AthertonKD 👆 — PolitiTweet.org
Max Fisher @Max_Fisher
RT @scharap: We’ve arrived at a stage when avoiding escalation to a Russia-NATO conflict is going to take luck or effort. Existing guardrai… — PolitiTweet.org
Max Fisher @Max_Fisher
https://t.co/OrDXAVx3dp — PolitiTweet.org
Max Fisher @Max_Fisher
"You just can't have this kind of war," President Eisenhower said in 1957, rejecting calls from hawks in the DoD and media to consider fighting a limited nuclear conflict with the Soviets. "There aren't enough bulldozers to scrape the bodies off the streets." — PolitiTweet.org
Clint Watts @selectedwisdom
Putin knows stop the West throw ‘nuclear’ into discussion & we’ll come to a stop, but the world should not be held… https://t.co/GPv4VE…
Max Fisher @Max_Fisher
RT @EmmaMAshford: Not the politest way to say this, but: the unipolar moment broke brains by convincing folks US military power could do an… — PolitiTweet.org
Max Fisher @Max_Fisher
Global wheat prices already up 8.5% just today. We’re on the cusp of something whose extent we’re only beginning to grasp and whose effects will likely echo for years or decades. — PolitiTweet.org
Max Fisher @Max_Fisher
One wonders if this had something to do with Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling, to erase any Western temptation to land cruise missiles on the war-crimes-in-waiting traffic jam outside Kyiv — PolitiTweet.org
Shashank Joshi @shashj
Russia may be botching its invasion so far, but plenty of mass en route. The Russian convoy which “stretches over n… https://t.co/Ofqa9fcBGH
Max Fisher @Max_Fisher
RT @CNN: Russian billionaires Mikhail Fridman and Oleg Deripaska have broken ranks with the Kremlin and called for an end to Russia's war i… — PolitiTweet.org
Max Fisher @Max_Fisher
RT @edwardfishman: (5) This is a sanctions action without precedent. As a result, the specific consequences aren't easy to predict with a h… — PolitiTweet.org
Max Fisher @Max_Fisher
RT @ggatehouse: Putin’s genius over the past two decades has been to turn himself into the structural institution through which power is ex… — PolitiTweet.org
Max Fisher @Max_Fisher
RT @EvansRyan202: Reports of the death of the international order were greatly exaggerated — PolitiTweet.org
Max Fisher @Max_Fisher
RT @RALee85: It is clear many soldiers don't know what the goal of this war is, so they don't know how to respond to civilians or what sort… — PolitiTweet.org
Max Fisher @Max_Fisher
Months of preparation and the supposed world grandmaster in information warfare came up with an easily falsified instagram spoof — PolitiTweet.org
Tim Mak @timkmak
Mayor of Kyiv: "today [Russia] created a clone of my Instagram... Russian internet media was sharing information qu… https://t.co/dYZZukezEk
Max Fisher @Max_Fisher
RT @shashj: Kharkiv. “An advance guard column…had come within 450m of the city’s statue to a Ukrainian national hero and poet, Taras Schevc… — PolitiTweet.org
Max Fisher @Max_Fisher
For more, see this very smart @russianforces thread on what Putin's nuclear announcement means on a technical level. It's not a step toward premeditated nuclear war. https://t.co/NniwSBrcgU — PolitiTweet.org
Pavel Podvig @russianforces
What is this "special mode of combat duty of the deterrence forces"? Hard to tell with certainty, but most likely i… https://t.co/1Y7qrPnuog
Max Fisher @Max_Fisher
So what does all this mean? Putin is not insane; he is not going to deliberately start a nuclear war. Rather, the main risk is a freak accident or miscalculation that sets either side hurtling toward last-ditch "defensive" strikes in error — very unlikely, but not impossible. — PolitiTweet.org
Max Fisher @Max_Fisher
Total nuclear annihilation was avoided in 1983 only because a Soviet air defense officer, Stanislav Petrov, refused to transmit his early warning to Moscow for fear that his equipment might be faulty. It was, and Petrov averted a total nuclear war by lucky guesswork. — PolitiTweet.org
Max Fisher @Max_Fisher
False launch detections have happened. In 1983, amid a moment of high US-Soviet tensions, a Soviet early warning station detected massive American missile launches. Moscow had feared exactly such a decapitation strike, seemingly now minutes from landing. — PolitiTweet.org
Max Fisher @Max_Fisher
Technological advances mean that both sides can now land devastating nuclear strikes within minutes. This forces extremely short response times: if Moscow believes it's detected a launch, it might have only 15 mins to decide whether to retaliate before its forces are obliterated. — PolitiTweet.org
Max Fisher @Max_Fisher
The second major scenario for unintended nuclear escalation is if one side believes that the other is about to, or has already, launched a full nuclear strike. This is both the less likely and more concerning possibility. — PolitiTweet.org
Max Fisher @Max_Fisher
This is why careful signaling by Western govts is so important. The West is rapidly building up its deterrence forces in NATO countries bordering Russia/Belarus. It's not too far from those borders to Moscow, so clarity of intentions is a matter of global life-and-death. — PolitiTweet.org
Max Fisher @Max_Fisher
NATO has no desire to topple the Kremlin by force (nuclear deterrent, etc) so Moscow would only believe this was coming if it misread some surprise or accidental escalation – say, a skirmish across the Belarus-Poland border – as cover for, or the start of, an attack on Moscow. — PolitiTweet.org
Max Fisher @Max_Fisher
The first is that Moscow believes it is about to face an overwhelming conventional attack from NATO that will decapitate the Russian govt and can only be repelled through nuclear strikes. — PolitiTweet.org
Max Fisher @Max_Fisher
With Putin's nuclear escalation today, the odds of nuclear conflict remain very small but are rising slightly. The greatest risk isn't a premeditated nuclear attack, which both sides know would be catastrophic. Rather, there are two scenarios for a possible nuclear exchange. — PolitiTweet.org
Max Fisher @Max_Fisher
RT @Max_Fisher: The odds of an unintended or accidental escalation to NATO-Russia conflict, perhaps nuclear, are not high, but they’re not… — PolitiTweet.org
