Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @jasonfurman: @paulkrugman Thanks for the gracious reply. And yes, median CPI is basically shelter. And shelter was unusually low until… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Fair point. Shelter inflation has broadened the story considerably. Labor supply issues look bigger than I thought they would. So we'll have to see. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @JayCShambaugh: There was a clear surge in prices in spring/early summer (blue line spike) that will keep 12 month inflation high until… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Three month core inflation. Why isn't everyone calling this a win for team transitory? https://t.co/KB9EawJLo1 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @nytopinion: Big money thought it was using G.O.P. extremists. But it was the other way around, writes @PaulKrugman. https://t.co/N5mXNJ… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I'd go with "clueless". Quitting sounds like a bad thing if you have no idea what these data mean. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So it's a highly relevant prize after all. And once again, richly deserved 13/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

When people like me say that progressives are the realists and "centrists" are living in the past, one reason is that modern empirical research fairly often undermines the free-market orthodoxy that dominated our political scene not long ago 12/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So although the work honored by this prize isn't at all political, it has political implications. (The truth tends to do that) 11/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I'd add that much our political world loves to emphasize incentives and all that, because hyping the potential incentive effects of taxes and benefits can help justify high inequality. Empirical evidence serves as a reality check against this bias 10/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

In other words, the field tends to suffer from 101ism, the urge to interpret the world in terms of what you learn in the first few chapters of the textbook. Empirical evidence, however, often finds that the complexity of the real world resists 101ism 9/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Why does the new methodology seem, more often than not, to support center-left policies? One reason is that conventional wisdom in economics tends to overstress incentive effects and market competition, bc that's what we understand 8/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Most recently, the ups and downs of expanded unemployment benefits, plus the decision of some but not all states to cut off these benefits early, lets us assess the impact of UI on employment — and such studies find little effect 7/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The now-large literature on aid to children exploits the natural experiments provided by the gradual rollout of food stamps, discontinuous increases in Medicaid, and so on to assess the benefits of such aid — and finds that they are huge 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Thus the Card-Krueger approach to the minimum wage, which exploits the natural experiments that take place when individual states hike their minimums, finds substantial income gains with little if any loss of jobs 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

it turns out that post-credibility-revolution (PCR?) research is highly relevant to debates on minimum wages, aid to children, and unemployment benefits. And in general this research supports more government intervention 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Since the prize was about methodology — not even about the facts as much as about how to determine those facts — you might think it wouldn't be relevant to current policy debates. However ... 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

This was a prize more for methods than for conclusions; the laureates were leaders in the "credibility revolution" in economics, the exploitation of natural experiments to sort out causation and the effects of policy 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

A few thoughts on today's economics Nobel, which was of course richly deserved (and it's truly tragic that Alan Krueger isn't able to share in it, as he surely would have) 1/ https://t.co/kQXyMVlc09 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @nytopinion: “Credibility is overrated as a factor that should be guiding policy,” @paulkrugman writes. “If we get substantive policies… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Doing what must be done won’t hurt the dollar https://t.co/LFk03v0dRm — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Now we can turn our attention to leading villains on tax evasion, like ... South Dakota 2/ https://t.co/z8en9Hoi6k — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

This big deal is a big deal. A major crackdown on tax avoidance, with havens like Ireland signing on 1/ https://t.co/zZincOkQEE — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And meanwhile ... https://t.co/147ZEfVqVw — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

It's not "most" — it's 80 percent! Between flirting with default and sabotaging vaccination, the GOP is objectively anti-business at this point https://t.co/kVw8YqoCYg — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @JustinWolfers: Also, all that talk of end UI being a big driver. It's a nothingburger. The real issue is -- and remains -- the virus.… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @JStein_WaPo: Upshot: Very few jobs added after millions of people cut off from unemployment benefits — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Entitlement society watch: per capita balance of payments (federal spending in a state minus revenue collected) https://t.co/o1Gvy3ooRR https://t.co/6eVRJOj2iH — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Most of the headlines are still very gloomy — but maybe time to be a bit contrarian? 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Indeed, if you look at consumer spending on durables we're most of the way back to the pre-pandemic trend 2/ https://t.co/nNKnm3Ug9x — PolitiTweet.org