Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The latest Nobel was for the exploitation of natural experiments, which has been hugely informative, but can't be used on all questions 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The thing about economic research is that there's no one good way to do it. There are different styles, different methodologies, all of which have their virtues when used well, and which can complement each other 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Indeed, I think that 98 paper may be the best thing I've done. And it offers an occasion to maunder on a bit about doing economics 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I mean, I have to like this thread and the paper ... 2/ https://t.co/Df5gxYKpWH — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Scott Sumner has an interesting thread about his recent paper on the "Princeton school" of macroeconomics, which includes among others yours truly and a guy named Bernanke (what ever happened to him?) 1/ https://t.co/7EkQsKtHnO — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Vaccine mandates could unclog the supply chain — by making it possible for people to spend more money on services, less on goods https://t.co/lr83U3UYIf — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @nytimes: In Opinion “I’d like to hope that Manchin is sincere — that he actually believes that he’s protecting his state’s interests,”… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

At this point fossil fuels loom much larger in WV's imagination than they do in the state's real economy 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And it's not clear why WV residents should care about returns to fracking capital, which presumably accrue mainly to wealthy out-of-state investors. When it comes to wages, fracked oil and gas are de minimis 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

What about fracking? It's pretty big business — but it's very capital-intensive, and employs remarkably few people. Here are shares of state GDP and compensation in 2019 4/ https://t.co/uUyejWe5mD — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So King Coal had been dethroned a generation ago. It's fallen even further since, but the big decline is far in the past 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Joe Manchin began his political career in the state legislature in 1982; at that point coal was responsible for 16 percent of payrolls. But it plunged in the years that followed, thanks to strip-mined coal in Wyoming and automation 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

A bit more on fossil fuels and West Virginia. The thing that always strikes me is that the state stopped being a coal-fueled economy a *long* time ago. Here's the share of coal mining in total compensation (a better measure than share of GDP, as I'll explain) 1/ https://t.co/46yhCwmUoV — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

That's not a condemnation: WV has to a large extent been stranded by changes in economic geography. But the state's true interest lies in strengthening the safety net now and searching for a better future — not trying to hold on to an unrecoverable past 7/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

In any case, the larger point is that coal is a shrinking and doomed sector. Right now, WV's economy is largely supported by federal transfers, with de facto aid of about 17% of the state's GDP 6/ https://t.co/o1Gvy3ooRR — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

To be fair, some of that value-added may represent activity outside direct mining employment. But given the obvious attempt to blow up the numbers via power generation, caution is advised 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The study also claims that indirect employment from contractors etc is bigger than employment in mining itself. I'm skeptical; BEA data on 2019 WV GDP don't show a lot of value-added outside the industry proper 4/ https://t.co/b1VnHJ7hQS — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

First of all, the study counts coal-fired electricity generation as part of the coal industry. But think about it: if we phased out coal, WV would still be generating power, just from other energy sources. Including this sector indicates an attempt to inflate the numbers 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Tooze's numbers rely a lot on a study I cited for direct coal employment; but a lot of the rest of that study is, well, dubious 2/ https://t.co/QIXuPYVNqm — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

As always, Adam Tooze's latest, this time on coal and the West Virginia economy, is interesting and thought-provoking. But also, unusually, a bit credulous 1/ https://t.co/xe92PpW1Jv — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Future historians — if there are any future historians, that is, if civilization doesn't collapse — will be astonished that we let the planet burn for the sake of an industry that employs less than 3 percent of workers even in West Virginia https://t.co/Rg5Fk0tQpe — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Good point: we have problems, but the most dire predictions haven't come true. And those who made those predictions are admitting it — not. https://t.co/wSO2CnCtAB — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Acknowledging ignorance is strength https://t.co/nQ3VCG0Jdu — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

My head talking to Christiane Amanpour https://t.co/0vTtnN7U7s — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So we have to tell stories — there's no number that will settle the debate. And we should be aware that our preferred story could easily be wrong, and make policy accordingly — topic of today's newsletter, coming out shortly 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Now they say different things, which is awkward. But even if some had clearly behaved better in the past, not clear whether that would apply looking forward, because the shocks we're experiencing are so different from anything previous 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Yep. In the past there wasn't much to choose between different measures — but they all tended to say the same thing 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

What I've been saying — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

America is a rich country that treats its workers astonishingly badly — and they're insisting on a better deal https://t.co/Z2dXrOo8hR — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So, doing my first in-person event since early 2020 https://t.co/Q7Z54gkToa — PolitiTweet.org