Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

If I have a difference with Jason Furman here, it's about nuance not big picture14/ https://t.co/NCEi3fKv2y — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

That said, if the Great Resignation persists and/or if there start to be hints of expected inflation feeding into price-setting, the Fed may want to raise rates, and shouldn't set down markers that it definitely won't.13/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

This reminds me of people who argued for monetary tightening in 2008 because of a commodities boom; to caricature only slightly, it's the idea that the whole US economy should be limited by port capacity at LA 12/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The problem with this argument is that to the extent that this is about bottlenecks, you're basically saying that the whole economy should be held back by the most constrained sector 11/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Historical interpretation aside, what does this say about future policy (it's all about the Fed now)? Should the Fed tighten to bring inflation down? 10/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

These largely reflect not so much overall level of demand as its skew toward goods as opposed to services — which I don't think anyone saw coming 9/ https://t.co/h9p28kcNoo — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

If you believe the BIS, supply-chain issues and resulting bottlenecks are a much bigger factor 8/https://t.co/eIfBuLXa6o — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

In fact, labor market tightness seems to be only a modest contributor to overall inflation so far 7/ https://t.co/UQv58SCRxa — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So economy may be overheated given that. But everything we knew before said that this should have only a modest effect on short-term inflation 6/ https://t.co/zWsuhm9tWo — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

What's happened instead is that potential is lower than we would have expected, thanks to Great Resignation; employment still low but all signs say labor market very tight 5/ https://t.co/XphqWVw4n6 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But demand *hasn't* risen all that much: real domestic final spending up 3.8% in 2 years, roughly consistent with normal potential growth 4/ https://t.co/R8e2mfZL5k — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Olivier Blanchard offered an admirably clear exposition: stimulus would lead to a huge surge in demand above capacity 3/ https://t.co/5krd5MVum6 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The details of what's happened are very different from what they predicted early this year. 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Some further thoughts on inflation and what to do next. Inflation has of course come in much higher than Team Transitory predicted — the Fed was predicting only 2.4% PCE growth as late as March. So the inflation worriers have in a way been vindicated, but ... 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @TBPInvictus: Although I am not sure I am on board yet for Paul’s mea culpa, ask yourself how many commentators you ever see acknowledgi… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Arena — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Coming next, the Ponzi Securities Exchange Company Arenda — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Voters' views of the economy are skewed by partisanship — Rs think it's worse than March 2009. They also don't know which things are under a president's control. We have a problem https://t.co/ervbjqlbgJ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @charliebilello: US Retail Sales hit another all-time high while Consumer Sentiment is at its lowest level in 10 years. Watch what they… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But, but, I've been getting mail saying that I don't realize how empty shelves are because I'm an elite who never does his own shopping. (I read some of that mail while standing in line at Fairway.) https://t.co/2pk8ygD3Mh — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

More evidence that falling "consumer confidence" numbers are more of a political statement than a read on actual, you know, confidence — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

PSA: no columns this week bc working on a larger project. Newsletters as usual — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Keying off last week’s symposium — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Projects for Friday: 1. Read CBO on BBB 2. Watch 1st installment of Wheel of Time — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

My inbox is full of people trying to resurrect monetarism on the basis of one quarter of inflation. Sorry, but no 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The money multiplier was popularized by Milton Friedman; it was a key part of his apparatus for asserting that the Great Depression was a failure of Fed policy. Except ... the 30s were also a zero-rate era, in which the concept didn't make sense 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Indeed. The money multiplier is a useless guide in a near-zero rate environment, where banks typically have ample reserves. And we've been in that environment since 2008. But there's a funny thing about the concept's history 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Please — it's 1.6 percent! Huge difference! — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

It's actually amazing how much inflation is associated with a bulge in the prices of durable goods, which are most affected by the bottlenecks 2/ https://t.co/HijJJTufhw — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Really interesting BIS piece on the role of bottlenecks in current inflation; it's large, and according to their estimates accounts for most of the difference between US and euro area inflation 1/ https://t.co/eIfBuLXa6o — PolitiTweet.org