Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The US-euro comparison is very important. But jumping on it and saying it must be fiscal policy is bad economics 8/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

That's huge. What explains it? Could be European reliance on job retention schemes rather than unemployment insurance. Could be that European work conditions for low-paid workers were better to begin with 7/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Most striking — and a point that hasn't gotten nearly enough attention: no European Great Resignation. Labor force participation back to prepandemic levels 6/ https://t.co/YhrPMLZM71 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Chart 5/ https://t.co/MwLkSu4pd2 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Beyond that, BIS estimates that bottleneck effects bigger here than in Europe. Maybe US cost-cutting more intense, smaller margins for error? 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The BIS estimates that bottleneck effects have added more to US than euro area inflation. Not clear why; some arguments that the prepandemic US economy was run with more extreme cost-cutting and smaller margins 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Europe came in to this with lower inflation than we did — ECB was less successful at achieving a 2% target. This baseline effect accounts for part of the difference 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

What the data actually show is that the US, which has done more fiscal stimulus than Europe, also has higher inflation. More careful people than Rattner have cited this as evidence that fiscal did it. But with only 2 data points, need to observe that other things are going on 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

As Arin says, Rattner committed chartcrime here. But there's a larger issue 1/ https://t.co/rizTYMOdb3 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @nytopinion: Sometimes you want to keep the punch bowl available. @PaulKrugman on how the thinking on interest rates has evolved. http… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Build Back Better is as American as apple pie https://t.co/YWYw3eE7vp — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @arindube: I usually wouldn't comment on a N=8 scatterplot, but this particular example turns out to be very useful pedagogically, illus… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

For reference: America pioneered universal education https://t.co/D0cez9Ygeg — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Responses to this are pretty wild. Folks, FRED isn't "The Fed". It's an (invaluable) database maintained by one of the regional Feds; its blog is meant to provide interesting notes on a variety of topics using that database. But these days everything is political ... — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I didn't know that Atlanta permits *loaded guns* in *the airport*. Not inside security, so I guess it's mostly OK to transfer there. But wow https://t.co/YkfIi9qAq3 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And this is with SALT — not a good thing, but doesn't change the broader picture 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The two parties are not the same 1/ https://t.co/PHZiWKe7h6 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Do we want to slow the whole economy because bottlenecks are causing some prices to rise? https://t.co/zyeliGRjFk — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

"Build Back Better passed the House yesterday, but Americans aren't feeling any benefits" (tomorrow's headlines, probably) — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

With Kevin McCarthy blaming Biden for labor shortages, a question: have any of the people who blamed enhanced unemployment benefits for labor shortage conceded that they were wrong? https://t.co/OcGSPV77ya — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Gotta keep the servant class from getting uppity — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Add in negative real interest rates and the investment aspects of BBB — yes, helping children is a highly productive investment — and this is an extremely responsible bill 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

For some perspective: 2/ https://t.co/blqoGtJK4v — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Seeing some news stories leading with "CBO says BBB will raise deficit" then acknowledging that it's bc CBO is probably underestimating revenue gains from a stronger IRS. Which is true but kind of misses the bigger point: $160 billion is tiny 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Supply chains gradually getting unkinked 4/ https://t.co/UXGeCDnEKi — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So basically CBO says BBB is AOK. Paid for within margin of error — not that pay-fors are important when real interest rates are negative and you're investing in the future. Fiscal "responsibility" is no reason to vote against this. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Given the way these things typically work, I wouldn't be surprised if we hit peak inflation panic just as actual inflation is fading away 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Big retailers seem to be doing fine on inventory for the holidays 2/ https://t.co/K1x25Dtu3X — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Need to guard against wishful thinking, but there do seem to be straws in the wind suggesting that supply-chain issues are getting less serious. Here's the Baltic Dry Index of shipping costs 1/ https://t.co/usekeyXVHd — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Basically, however, don't panic. This isn't 1973, when Nixon's political business cycle interacted with the oil shock to produce stagflation. It's a much more excusable and manageable problem 15/ — PolitiTweet.org