Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Did I mention that I read a lot of history? 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The next day, as Union reinforcements arrived, Pickett's force was more or less annihilated at Five Forks; the epic Union pursuit of fleeing Confederates ended 8 days later with Lee's surrender at Appomattox. 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Happy Dinwiddie Court House day! On this day in 1865, as U.S. Grant moved to outflank Confederate trenches at Petersburg, Lee launched a counterattack led by none other than George Pickett. But the outnumbered Union vanguard held 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @TheStalwart: Nobody expects the Spanish yield curve inversion. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @nytopinion: “Vladimir Putin’s decision to raise food and fuel prices,” @PaulKrugman writes, “is already weighing on family budgets, pro… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @nytopinion: “These days not a month goes by without further revelations that a large part of America’s body politic, very much includin… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Seems pretty likely to me that the Fed will be hiking into a significant slowdown. To some extent that's OK — the economy is overheated and needs to cool down. But reason to move gradually 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And rising energy and food prices will hit consumer demand for other goods 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Fiscal policy is turning contractionary 4/ https://t.co/IPvtdjhyVn — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And as I keep arguing, the relevant expected rate of inflation isn't the 10-year rate — it's something like the 10 year 1 year forward, because near-term inflation due to oil and food isn't relevant to investment 3/ https://t.co/owU6FyiZx3 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But with all the talk about being behind the curve on inflation, I wonder whether people are now getting behind the curve on a likely slowdown in aggregate demand. The real interest rates that matter for investment are rising fast 2/ https://t.co/E2QwlfJwlc — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So, this really is a very tight labor market. Yesterday in New Jersey 1/ https://t.co/bng5kp4h5h — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I can't be the only one noticing that Putin's response to failure in Ukraine is extremely Trumpian. 1. Deny that anything has gone wrong 2. Insist that your own decisions have always been perfect 3. Whine about cancel culture Tough guys, both — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The question isn't whether Mr. Market is right. The point is that the bond market, like consumer surveys, is telling us that people expect a bad year (and so do I!) — not that longer-term expectations have gotten unanchored 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

At the right end, 1-year rates up to 1.5 and yields on index bonds coming due slightly over 1 year from now -4.1 => ~5.6 percent expected inflation over the next year. That jump in next-year expectations explains most of the rise in 5-year expectations 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

At the left end, in spring 2021 1-year rates were ~0 and yields on index bonds coming due in a year were -2.5 => ~2.5 percent expected inflation over the next year 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Most of the rise in 5-year expected inflation reflects a surge in expected inflation over the very near term, which investors don't expect to continue. A picture that needs some explaining 2/ https://t.co/pYoV61UpVM — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

People keep telling me about rising medium-term breakevens as evidence that inflation expectations are getting unanchored. But I do not think this picture means what they think it means 1/ https://t.co/3qcu7kuydB — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But the Fed is behind the curve! The Fed is behind the curve! — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Our current inflation looks very different from that of 1980, and should be much easier to cure https://t.co/jH9abGp3Q4 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

No idea whether Western intelligence has explicit indications of possible chemical etc. attacks. But the logic of desperate actions as Putin stares catastrophe in the face is worrisome 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RU military might still get its act together; but if that hasn't happened after a month, when will it ever happen? Scary thing: What if RU forces start to experience outright defeats — say, large-scale surrenders of cut-off units? 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Completely outside my lane, but the Ukraine war news seems both encouraging and scary. Encouraging because balance of forces clearly swinging in Ukraine's favor: massive influx of Western weapons and enthusiastic recruitment, versus RU attrition and demoralization 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So a relatively soft landing is still very much possible. The Fed's belief that it can happen without any uptick in unemployment is dubious. But if you're going to tell 70s scare stories, get the history right 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Nothing like that is happening now. Large wage increases for some workers, but it's just supply and demand, not expected future inflation. Medium-term inflation expectations mostly anchored — rising breakevens mainly reflect current oil shock 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Employers were locking in large, multi-year cost increases because everyone expected high inflation to continue indefinitely, so their competitors would be in the same position. That was why disinflation — which came as a big surprise — was so costly 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

People worrying about a return to 70s-type stagflation should look beyond the macro series and look at what wage- and price-setters were doing. From the Feb. 1980 Monthly Labor Review: 1/ https://t.co/MbEfK9sWLZ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

A recent remote talk to the Kyiv School of Economics. One of the moderators had to take refuge in his shower, because there were explosions in the distance https://t.co/wTCxD7y2Tk — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Coming up soon; I'll be keynoting https://t.co/0vwjMZyLQU — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @nytopinion: How and when did the world become dependent on wheat from parts of the former Soviet Union? @PaulKrugman looks at the trade… — PolitiTweet.org