Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Cleveland Fed similar 9/ https://t.co/KlDE358ggz — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Others telling similar story. St. Louis Fed uses inflation swaps to conclude that markets expect inflation to fade fast 8/ https://t.co/cYw5Zjuf6M — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Oh, forgot to mention that there was also a brief scare over breakevens, but it went away 7/ https://t.co/5bhn02yVdC — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Here's 1 and 5 year expected inflation in 1980, from Michigan survey, and in 2022 from both that survey and bond market breakevens 6/ https://t.co/cEiziTGzIx — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

At this point every measure I'm aware of suggests that the public expects inflation to be high in the near future, but then fade away. Big contrast with 1980, when Volcker was bringing on the pain 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So there was a big fuss when the long-standing Michigan Survey seemed to show a jump in 5-10 inflation expectations — Powell cited it in justifying the latest Fed hike. But it was a false alarm. Most of the bump has been revised away. 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And getting entrenched inflation down probably requires a sustained period of above-normal unemployment. So we want to know if inflation is entrenched in expectations — something we try to judge not by 1-year expectations (which are mainly gas prices) but by medium term 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Why do we care about expected inflation (as opposed to actual, current inflation)? Because it's central to stories about stagflation. In a world in which everyone expects 10% inflation, prices will tend to rise by 10% a year even if overall supply and demand are in balance 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Given the crisis of American democracy, it seems almost wrong to write about inflation expectations. And the economy may be less central to the midterms than seemed likely just a week ago. But life and macroeconomics go on, and there have been some important developments 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @stlouisfed: Though U.S. inflation has been unexpectedly high, inflation swap data indicate that longer-term inflation expectations have… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So not only can it happen here; it *has* happened here. The difference is that this time a similar movement may soon control the federal govt; it already controls the Court. 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The seamless melding of conspiracy theorizing and financial grift — the new KKK was as much multi-level-marketing scam as political movement. And so on. And for a while the KKK controlled several states 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The closest parallel I can find — and it's a stunningly close parallel in a number of ways — is the rise of the KKK in the 1920s, which was a new movement, not the post-Civil War terrorist org. It was all there: nativism, anti-intellectualism, hatred of "elites" ... 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

WW1, hyperinflation, Depression don't justify what happened, but to help explain it. But the GOP went mad at a time of peace and prosperity. Are there any other examples of that happening? Well, yes 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Which raises the question of how that can have happened. I don't think it's at all unfair to call much of the GOP fascist (certainly a lot fairer than the R insistence that Ds are Marxists). But classical fascism, if u can call it that, arose after national catastrophes 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

When did you first realize that the GOP was becoming an extremist, anti-democratic cult? For me it was way back in the 90s; people forget how many Rs refused to accept Clinton as legitimate and the proliferation of conspiracy theories 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @EdwardGLuce: Worth stressing that at every juncture over last 20 years the America “alarmists” have been right. Downplaying the enormit… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

This week we learned major details about an all-out GOP attempt to overturn a lost election and a GOP court essentially banned both abortion (yes, a national ban is coming) and gun control. So are the midterms really going to be about gas prices? — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And whaddya know, this bump just got mostly revised away 3/ https://t.co/i03dDEuzg2 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And I suggested that people not freak out about the one number which maybe, possibly, suggested an upward break in these expectations: 2/ https://t.co/b862ey45ls — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Well, in today's column I argued against the view that inflation expectations were getting unanchored and would require a Volcker-style depression to get things back under control 1/ https://t.co/zFDlTIFxzr — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @nytopinion: “Inflation is a real problem, and tighten the Fed must,” @paulkrugman writes. “But it will be tragic if the Fed listens to… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

You know whose gun control laws the Supreme Court just ruled unconstitutional? Just about every town in the Old West, Dodge City included https://t.co/mjWSFhlr7j — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

There was an incredible amount of vituperative commentary from center-left economists condemning any suggestion that price-gouging might be contributing to inflation. Certainly not the main cause. But research now indicates that it was *a* cause https://t.co/8ValUjjBww — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And of course the belief that savers deserve to be rewarded with a decent return — even if the world is awash with more savings than it knows what to do with 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

If you have a few spare hours, read the speech about money in Atlas Shrugged — the one Paul Ryan says told him all he needed to know about money to get a sense of this mindset 5/ https://t.co/i6PrCYHer9 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Part of it, I suspect, is like the old joke about the Germans — that they consider economics a branch of moral philosophy. There are always a number of people out there who just can't accept the idea of fiat money as a technocratic tool of economic management 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

To be honest, I kind of forgot that when writing this piece, thinking of it as straightforward analytical stuff and about as apolitical as I get. But there's something about money ... 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Say that the GOP has become a fascist party, and readers shrug. Say that low rates made sense after 2008, or quantitative easing wasn't inflationary, and the invective flies. Oh, and say something negative about cryptocurrency ... 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Reactions to yesterday's newsletter confirm something I've observed many times in the past: Nothing sets people off, inspires as much rage, as talking about monetary economics 1/ https://t.co/qsIKwdYw7i — PolitiTweet.org