Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

There were a few exceptions: Japan's navy never recovered from the loss of 4 carriers at Midway. And battles that severed critical supply lines — like the U.S. capture of the Marianas — were decisive. But metrics like ground gained or even casualties inflicted aren't useful 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

O'Brien's illuminating book "How the war was won" has a great opening sentence: "There were no decisive battles in World War II." What he means is that given the huge war production of the combatants, even huge losses in individual battles could be replaced in a few weeks 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

For example, I keep reading that Severodonetsk/Lyshychansk are "strategically important." But why? It's hard to see why control of those two ruined cities materially affects either side's ability to continue the war 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

This is an amazing observation. Obviously not my area of expertise, but I've been trying to understand the two sides' strategies here; and I don't think much of the news reporting gets at the real issues 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @nytopinion: “The U.S. economy’s growth is clearly slowing, and the downturn could easily be sharp enough to be considered a recession,… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Can they at least rename it "Go f_k yourself Island"? — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And whaddya know. Even the unimportant details in the Hutchinson testimony, the ones the usual suspects were trying to use to discredit her — with help from some mainstream media appear to have been true https://t.co/lybLKn6PIA — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Disagree. The Godfather always kept his promises, and was as loyal to his henchmen as they were to him — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Once again, no reason to assume that the markets are right. But the question is whether inflation is getting entrenched in expectations (the trench has lost its anchor?) And the answer from every data source is no — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Undoing Roe is awful. Kneecapping environmental regulation is existential. This Supreme Court has just come down on the side of civilizational collapse. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

To say what I always say, usually to no avail, not saying that the market is right. Only that there is no sign of persistent inflation getting entrenched in expectations 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The 1Y5Y rate is market-based expectations for the 5 years starting 1 year from now. It's currently 2.32% — basically the Fed's target, given spread btw PCE and CPI. Basically the market now expects inflation to be ... transitory 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Aha. I've been arguing for a while that in addition to the usual measures of inflation expectations, we should be looking at what people expect in the medium term beyond 1 year. This site does just that 1/ https://t.co/QkOIRUiP9Z https://t.co/jdxMe4Oa96 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And of course none of this had anything to do with policy ... 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

A lot of this had to do with the fracking boom, which kept prices low for a while but was eventually revealed as an unsustainable bubble. So in a way drivers spent the late 2010s being subsidized by naive investors 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

What I take from this is that prices at the pump aren't *that* high in historical perspective. But they were unusually low from around 2015 on, and especially during the pandemic 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Thinking about gasoline prices, which are looming so large politically. The blue line is the real price; the red line the most recent price from Gasbuddy 1/ https://t.co/vyr1rCHhWQ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But not to worry. Unnamed Republicans are telling journalists, off the record, that they're privately appalled https://t.co/3ec6sIhpc6 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Self-indulgent tweet: Some of us spent 20 years being told to calm down about GOP radicalization, that it's not that bad, that we were being "shrill" and alarmist. Happened to me this very morning. You might think that todays' revelations would end all that. But probably not — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Not, it turns out, the optimal day to write about long-run economic growth. Still, you should buy Brad DeLong's deeply enlightening book https://t.co/0da4i4k1o6 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The rational move for Republicans now would be to say "We're shocked, shocked to find sedition going on in this party" and throw Trump to the wolves. Given bothsidesing media, they might well get away with it. But it's a near certainty that almost none of them will — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The Golf Course Putsch? — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Also, to the two or three people who might actually read today's newsletter (on long run growth), thank you. Even I'm finding it hard to think about anything else 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Live view of smoking guns from today's testimony 1/ https://t.co/6ejGfN7hwm — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

We'll need to watch this, and maybe discount what the surveys — as opposed to financial markets, where people are putting money on the line — say. Key point: the Fed should not slam the brakes because of phantom inflation fears 15/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

If partisan ads get more people to tell pollsters that they expect permanent high inflation, will this translate into actual wage and price increases? That is, will it affect perceptions that inform economic decisions, as opposed to those that might affect voting? Doubtful 14/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But even if ads do raise what consumers *say* about expected inflation, will it have any real economic significance? There's already a striking disconnect between what people say about the state of the economy and what they say about their own finances 13/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I'm a bit skeptical, because consumers are already so barraged it's hard to know whether the ads will make a difference. CNN has become the Inflation News Network; and what do you think people see on Fox? 12/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Now, Goldman Sachs is making a curious argument (no link): That inflation expectations will rise because of "the coming barrage of political advertisements highlighting high inflation ahead of the midterm elections" 11/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Crucial: not claiming that consumers or markets have special information. The question isn't whether they're right; it's whether inflation has gotten entrenched. All the evidence says no 10/ — PolitiTweet.org