Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Ignore the two-quarter rule. We might have a recession, but we aren't in one now https://t.co/48qpo9uoQL — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @LouisHarreau: 10 years ago: "within our mandate, within our mandate…” Happy Whatever-it-takes day to those who observe! 🇪🇺 https://t.c… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

If so, we may be closer than people think to getting underlying inflation back on target. In which case the main recession risk will come not from intractable inflation but from Fed overshoot. 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Dallas Fed survey, just out, suggests that it might. via Daily Shot 4/ https://t.co/nXT0oPv8Xu — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So Friday will be a bigger day with releases of the PCE deflator and employment cost index, especially the latter. Will it confirm average wage data suggesting a cooling labor market? 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

More about this in today's newsletter; but even aside from the 2-quarter rule being really bad, the main determinant of the economy's path forward will be how the Fed judges the inflation threat 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

It's a big data week, for those who care about these things. (The rest of you should ignore this thread.) GDP on Thursday, which may show a second quarter of negative growth. But I don't care much about this, bc 2q of negative growth does NOT mean a recession 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Joe Biden is a Marxist, New York is a burned-out hellhole, and other delusions that feed the Big Lie https://t.co/7Q15bGtVgX — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Does anyone really know why prices at the pump have come down this much, this fast? 2/ https://t.co/LAROcEMHvN — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Predictions are hard, especially about the future (as I should know) 1/ https://t.co/dGOrPTASEr — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

That's pretty amazing, since in my experience nobody goes there — it's too crowded. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Things nobody could have predicted unless they’d read any history ever — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And there's a lot of buzz these past few weeks about slowing price hikes even outside energy, that won't be in data that end in June. None of this says that more data aren't going to be helpful. But expect Friday to be frustrating 7/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Of course in some respects it will all be old news. Certainly headline numbers won't reflect the remarkable decline in gas prices 6/ https://t.co/urGiUisD9h — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So what if (probably) the PCE looks a lot less grim than the CPI. but (maybe) the ECI doesn't match the declining trend in wage growth. What will we think about inflationary pressure? 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

ECI is supposed to be a more robust measure of wage growth than simple hourly wages — which it was during the craziness of pandemic layoffs. But lately it has seemed a bit erratic relative to the simple wage data 5/ https://t.co/NDJLGY1KD9 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But lately the divergence between the two has exploded 4/ https://t.co/u0DIuQyvMk — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Which is why medium-term market expectations for the CPI are basically consistent with the Fed's 2 percent target for the PCE 3/ https://t.co/WiL6ByMQEd — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The thing is, we already have other data covering the same period that try to measure the same things. But lately different measures have been telling different stories. Most dramatic: PCE deflator normally runs a bit below the consumer price index 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

On the wonkish side: two important data releases Friday — the employment cost index and personal consumption data, including the PCE price deflator. My prediction: we're going to end the week feeling confused 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

We're basically deep into witch trials, blood libel territory. Lately I've been getting a rash of mail declaring the battle for Ukraine a "Jewish war." If you don't think that's a widespread view on the right, you're deluding yourself 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I'd say that rural America is out of touch, the way urban elites are always accused of being, but it surely runs deeper than that. Someone who believes that anarchist mobs torched every blue city probably wouldn't change his mind if you gave him a guided tour 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But none of that matters. I'd like to see a systematic survey, but I'm pretty sure that tens of millions of people in America believe that Black Lives Matter turned Manhattan into a smoking ruin. 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And the whole thing about "unsafe cities" is decades out of date. Despite a rise in murders during the pandemic — which took place in both rural and urban areas — New York, in particular, is one of the safest places in America 3/ https://t.co/XWXjfzFEbq — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Domestic terrorism from the left is normally a minor issue — especially lethal attacks. Of 30 deaths from domestic terrorism last year, 28 were right-wing 2/ https://t.co/KbmHaSz46x — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I really shouldn't keep being surprised by these things, but here you have a whole political movement based on nothing, or less than nothing 1/ https://t.co/nhgragZPaw — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @BillKristol: Orban is scheduled to be the opening speaker at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) on August 4 in Dallas.… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Finally, when you're behind for the midterms — which Dems are, despite some improvement — taking risks is good. If the bet goes bad, well, u were probably going to lose anyway. If it works, it might push u over the top. Carpe diem and all that 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Second, if gas prices go up, Republicans will hammer on it whatever Dems do now. By contrast, if Ds don't point out the good news, who will? Counting on the media to spend a lot of time on falling gas doesn't sound like a safe bet 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

First, while you can find analysts predicting a huge spike later this year, that's not what markets (future prices) expect. Of course the markets could be wrong, but from some of the news coverage you'd think that a highly contrarian view was the base case 2/ https://t.co/UsKIOciA7P — PolitiTweet.org