Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Gonna keep making this point: At this point, gas isn't expensive by historical standards. Adjusting for average wages, it's high relative to the late 2010s, when money-losing fracking was all the rage. But it's normal in longer perspective https://t.co/HI2kPa5k7t — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I miss the banana dispute! Edition after edition of Krugman/Obstfeld it gave us an excuse to make bad jokes: “At the time of writing, efforts to resolve the banana split had proved fruitless “ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @drvolts: The climate-denial movement reaches its inevitable intellectual nadir: attacking weather people for reporting high temperature… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But both market pricing and consumer surveys say that didn't happen; the Fed moved soon enough that expectations remained anchored. So where was the terrible policy sin? 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So on path A we experienced higher inflation, but also had more employment and output. Why is that such a terrible thing? The story — the one the Fed fears — is that inflation becomes entrenched in expectations, and takes years of BELOW normal employment to reverse 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Stylized picture of paths the US economy might have followed after, say, January 2021. It could have converged smoothly to potential (path B); in fact, it clearly overshot and is now on its way back down (path A) 4/ https://t.co/Td56recrSY — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But while this was an intellectual and predictive error, which I shared in, I remain puzzled by the certainty that it was a costly policy error. 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

You can see this in the pace of wage increase, which hasn't accelerated nearly as much as headline inflation but clearly indicates an economy that needs cooling off (which the Fed is doing) 2/ https://t.co/xJY3vzZ8ES — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So, leaving the 2-quarter crazies aside, I have a real question about the economic debate. Take it as given that large fiscal stimulus and Fed complacency allowed the U.S. economy to get overheated 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

They want their Biden Recession (TM) now now now, never mind the >2 million jobs created while this recession was supposedly happening. And the reactions to anyone who doesn't agree are a mixture of hysteria and obscenity 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The thing is, if you want to argue that Biden policies exacerbated inflation, you can make a reasonable case. If you want to argue that this makes a future slump inevitable, I don't agree but I see how you could say it. But these aren't good enough for the right 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Apparently a revision war on Wikipedia over the meaning of "recession". As I've been saying, the backlash over "2 quarters of negative growth don't define a recession" is the worst I've seen 1/ https://t.co/LfjEMSXps3 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @nytopinion: “Employment is, in fact, a human relationship, and this makes a difference even in a market economy,” writes @PaulKrugman.… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Well, ECI not good — seems to show accelerating wage growth, in contrast to the average wage numbers. Not the final word — ECI has been sort of erratic lately — but a strike against inflation optimists https://t.co/o0DiifXgV9 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Forget the stupid 2-quarter recession stuff. Here's what's really important https://t.co/k6eIjlr9Dx — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I suspect that the fact that this isn’t truly debatable makes it worse. People who thought they had a perfect gotcha end up feeling humiliated and get even angrier 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The previous peak was back in the Bush years, against anyone saying we were being deceived into war. This is worse 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The backlash against saying “2 negative quarters isn’t the definition of a recession” - a simple statement of fact - is the worst I’ve seen. And I’ve seen a lot 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Tricky comparison. Labor force growth much higher then bc Boomers still entering work and female lfp still rising — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Many news reports saying we've entered a "technical recession" — which doesn't exist. Here's GS: "the official definition of recession is a judgmental mix of levels and rates-of-change across several variables, most of which continued to expand in the first half of the year" — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Agreed. Jokes aside, what matters isn't how we got here, it's the fact that we did. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The first casualty in war is truth; but economic statistics are somewhere down the line. Same, apparently, for pandemic 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Here's the blog post 3/ https://t.co/GIJtHw64CK — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Then as now, an economy struggling to make a big transition — then from a war economy, now from a Covid economy 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Maybe worth noting that when the CEA looked for historical parallels to current inflation, they found that the best match was 1946-48 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Does the Manchin family own a business that makes money treating whiplash? — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @bencasselman: Given all the discussion this week, I thought it'd be interesting to look back at the one example we have of a two-quarte… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @bencasselman: Pretty direct answer from Powell just now: “I do not think the U.S. is currently in a recession.” He cites the strength o… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Safe prediction: tomorrow morning will be ugly. If GDP is negative, there will be a firestorm of demands that Biden/NBER declare a recession, and claims that they're moving goalposts if they don't. (They won't be.) If it's positive, expect many claims about cooked books. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The Fed's actions and words today were sublimely boring, and I mean that in the best way. No surprise on policy, no future commitments that will hinder its ability to "adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate." The next meeting may be more interesting. — PolitiTweet.org