Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The question is how we should think about the century or so before 1870 when real wages were rising moderately despite a growing population. Brad argues that the pace of technological progress was still glacial by modern standards 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Only after 1870 do we see a huge improvement in working-class living standards 5/ https://t.co/Sr8Sg7noxO — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Fast forward to 1870, and real wages were no higher than they had been in the 15th century — but the population was much larger, so evidence of technological progress 4/ https://t.co/aBSPqbRnBI — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Up through 1600 the world was Malthusian pure and simple. Real wage in 2015 pounds versus population (inverted): just sliding up and down the curve with the rise and fall of plagues 3/ https://t.co/uYK5qbCzeB — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

As it happens, my friend FRED includes the Bank of England dataset with estimates of some UK variables going back to the Middle Ages. And it allows me to make a few pictures of real wages versus population 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

As they say in the Patrick O'Brian novels, I give you joy of your victory! A few FRED-based thoughts on one of Brad's big insights: that the world didn't really break out of the Malthusian trap until 1870 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

via @NYTOpinion https://t.co/jeva5GERYA — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

You might think that "core inflation is high" is a much weaker political talking point than "$5 a gallon", even though policy has much more to do with the former. But I don't know 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The concern is that core inflation remains high, so that the improvement in headline numbers will be, um, transitory. Serious issue for the Fed. But do voters care? Or if they do, is it only because of media coverage, even though their own experience is of cheaper gas etc? 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So, I have a question about the politics of inflation. I keep seeing pieces saying that inflation will be a big problem for Dems in November. But headline inflation has been low in recent months, gas prices still coming down 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @jonathanchait: Averting a railroad strike, like fending off a Russian invasion in Europe, is the kind of old-timey problem Biden seems… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Sometimes I feel as if the gods of economic data are just messing with our heads. I think the basic picture is still what it seemed to be before these reports: a too-hot economy but not one with an expectations-driven spiral. 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Indeed. Core PPI looks as if it's on a clearly downward trend. Friends who know the details say that the PCE index, which is partly based on PPI, is likely to look a lot better than CPI. Which is not to say that things are OK, just that they're confusing 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @nytopinion: .@PaulKrugman dissects the Misery Index, “a quick-and-dirty measure of the state of the economy.” https://t.co/8Eiksi3cDW — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So this core reading may be telling us about the past, not the future. Given this reading, the Fed will have no choice about continuing to hike, but it shouldn't greatly move your views about how long and how far the hikes will have to go 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

CPI shelter prices are set to rise for quite a while simply because they reflect trends in newly rented housing with a lag. That's not a critique; there are reasons for doing it the way BLS does. But private indicators suggest that the rent surge is leveling off 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The core inflation number is the one that has people worried. But as I've been saying, that's basically shelter. And these days it's a really problematic indicator of what's happening to underlying inflation. 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Well, I was getting ready to write about why we shouldn't make too much of the monthly CPI decline. Now need to write about not making too much of the monthly rise 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I wrote my paper "Target zones and exchange rate dynamics" on a desktop at the Kiel Institute for World Economics. It kept trying to be a paper on target YONES. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Why MAGA needs to believe in Russian power https://t.co/kFejxxYP58 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Inflation expectations falling fast. https://t.co/GQTuqwsG7G https://t.co/stW4SCw0hs — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Revisiting this clip. Obviously one of the all-time great bad calls. But I hadn't fully registered how crazy it is — Carlson declaring that Biden is supporting a hopeless cause because he wants to destroy America — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Inflation less food and energy is 40% shelter; median inflation basically is owners' equivalent rent. These measures respond with a lag to rental rates on new apartments. But if rents flattening, indicates core inflation — which drives Fed policy — on course to flatten too 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Apartment rents peaking? More important than people may realize for economic policy, because rents — market rents and imputed rents on owner-occupied housing — are key drivers of all measures of core inflation 1/ https://t.co/dlRMPgZBCe — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

PS: NYC murder rate in 2022 so far is 12% below 2021, although some less violent crimes are up 3/ https://t.co/YvbtMKM9mc — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Crime is indeed up since the pandemic, but it's up everywhere, including Republican-led locales with tough-on-crime politicians in charge 2/ https://t.co/DKiACTYrV1 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So Rs have stopped running on gas prices — which have little to do with Biden policy — and are now running on crime, which has nothing at all to do with Biden policy 1/ https://t.co/VmrFl4g6gb https://t.co/dI564abVNF — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @PhillipsPOBrien: The Russo Ukraine war as Dornbusch’s Law. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And then, suddenly, RU collapse around Kharkiv and maybe beyond. Still unclear whether this was brilliant grand strategy or opportunistic exploitation; we'll eventually learn more. But it really looks as if an RU army being pushed to the breaking point ... broke 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

To those of us who aren't Tucker Carlson, it seemed fairly obvious that the balance was swinging toward Ukraine: erosion of RU logistics, manpower and morale, growing Ukrainian striking power thanks to Western weapons. But very little movement on the ground 2/ — PolitiTweet.org