Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The result is that sterling depreciation actually *improves* Britain's net international investment position (the same thing happens to the US). So a balance-sheet currency crisis story doesn't seem to make sense 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

That was the story for Asia in the 90s, the Argentine crisis 2001, part of the problem in Turkey now. But while the UK has a lot of external liabilities, they're overwhelmingly sterling-denominated; the UK also has external assets, largely direct investment 5/ https://t.co/VAdLtPZBPe — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Since the 1990s, most currency crises have involved balance sheet effects: a country (either public or private sector, or both) has large external liabilities in foreign currency. In that case depreciation worsens balance sheets, creating a self-reinforcing downward spiral 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But back to sterling. I'm supposed to know something about currency crises — I did invent the academic field! And as far as I know there are two ways a country with a floating exchange rate can have a currency crisis, neither of which seems to apply to the UK 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Just an aside: I can't be the only one who noticed the parallel between the declaration that a budget wasn't a budget, just a "fiscal event", and Putin's insistence that his war isn't a war, just a "special military operation". No moral equivalence, of course. But wow 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Thinking more about reactions to the Truss/Kwarteng not-a-budget released Friday. While I yield to nobody in my disdain for their embrace of zombie economics, I'm puzzled by all the talk about a looming sterling crisis 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But apparently Tolkien can be a breeding ground for future fascists, just like Ayn Rand 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Thinking about the old joke that teenagers get obsessed with either Atlas Shrugged or LOTR. One is an unrealistic fantasy that can leave you emotionally stunted for life; the other is about orcs 1/ https://t.co/kd3hEyNwmK — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Yes, I was thinking about the movie Enemies at the Gate — which, by the way, turned the female character, who was herself a sniper in the real-life story behind it, into a helpless civilian — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

My God, what's the plan? Human wave attacks, with only one rifle for every three men, figuring there will be enough for the (untrained) survivors? — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

More about the bad ideas behind the Truss debacle. Bear in mind that Britain is a land of floating-rate mortgages; the odds of a Labor government must now be quite high https://t.co/gUwZOXQPQR — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

David Malpass, the Trump-selected president of the World Bank, is now in trouble over climate change. I had forgotten what I once wrote about him, but still like it https://t.co/yHhojnh3mw https://t.co/QePXBJ4hQ9 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But Britain is now trading like a developing country, where perceived fiscal irresponsibility is undermining confidence in the value of its currency. It's actually kind of awesome — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

What's really amazing is that surging interest rates have been accompanied by a *plunge* in the pound. This is not supposed to happen in advanced countries: we expect deficit spending to drive up interest rates and make the currency *rise*, which is what happened under Reagan — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition — or the zombie economic apocalypse. The Truss government believes in the miraculous power of tax cuts? Really? At this late date? https://t.co/qq4EdXNK9H — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Seems relevant to current events ... 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

My maternal grandparents — who came from the Odesa area — immigrated to the US in 1914. According to family legend, they were well-to-do and were just visiting America, not planning to stay — but when WWI broke out, my grandfather knew that if he went back he'd be drafted 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @rbmyerson: On Sept 17, I will be in NYC to join @paulkrugman, @JohnEdHerbst, @Mylovanov, @brik_t, @jmurtazashvili, and many others at a… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

You know what really has led to a smaller labor force than we expected at this point? Reduced immigration 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Labor force participation down for >55 — but this is largely aging within this group. Being 69, or even 63, is different from being 56! 3/ https://t.co/QqdizYh4uE — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I mean, does this look as if prime age adults have exited the work force en masse? 2/ https://t.co/uwoTXAvLA5 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Yep. The Great Resignation appears to have been temporary. 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I get mail asking “how would you feel if New York was full of immigrants”. Also “how would you feel if foreigners were taking a lot of academic positions” — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Send lawyers, guns and money, but skip the lawyers https://t.co/qjhQh7Bwri — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Ukraine's economy is hurting — but less than you might have expected https://t.co/qjhQh7Bwri — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

This isn't a critique of Brad's work: It's an important and novel observation that the trends didn't really break until circa 1870. And maybe it's just hindsight that makes the squishier changes seem so important. But maybe not 11/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I guess my point is that I suspect that the intellectual and maybe social foundations for the big break were laid well before the big uptick in total factor productivity. 10/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Not just scientists, either. I'm kind of a Civil War buff, and it has always seemed to be that people like Grant and Lincoln were modern in a way you couldn't find in earlier eras. For that matter, did the ancient world have an Alexander Hamilton? 9/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But maybe the economic numbers don't tell the whole story? It seems to me that between 1600 and 1870 there was a revolution in how people thought — a rise in systematic thinkers from Newton to Darwin, including, yes, Malthus himself — that had no previous counterpart 8/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And there had been previous eras of significant economic growth — the Dutch Republic? The early Roman Empire? — that never achieved escape velocity. So maybe the real break didn't come until 1870. By the numbers, this looks right 7/ — PolitiTweet.org