Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @Brad_Setser: Krugman has identified four reasons for China's persistent bilateral surplus with the U.S.: "Hong Kong, macroeconomics, v… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

If we were living in a paranoid fantasy universe, I would be very suspicious about the Epstein suicide, even about whether it was really suicide. And you know what? The Epstein case itself shows that we *are* kind of living in a paranoid fantasy universe — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

@Brad_Setser Someone with more time and patience should try to do the full accounting, but I think the US-China bilateral can mainly be explained by "natural causes"; doesn't have much to do with either country's trade policy 7/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

@Brad_Setser Lastly, China imports a lot of oil, which means other things equal needs to run a surplus on everythin… https://t.co/A6qlar5Qaa — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

@Brad_Setser Now add China's role as "great assembler", with value-added in exports really coming from elsewhere; famous case of iPhone. Much less true than it used to be, but still means that Chinese surplus is partly optical illusion 5/ https://t.co/EItNaT1Q92 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

@Brad_Setser Adding HK reduces the export imbalance to "only" 3.5 to 1. Now macro: the US runs overall trade deficit, with imports 1.5 times exports. China runs overall surplus, with imports only 0.8 exports. On some sort of gravity-ish story, this suggests ratio "should" be around 2 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

@Brad_Setser Hong Kong: effectively part of the Chinese economy, and the US runs a large surplus - $37 b in exports, only $6 b in imports. Basically a lot of US goods appear to enter China via HK (something similar in Europe, where US exports to Germany go via Belgium/NL) 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

@Brad_Setser So last year US goods imports from China were $539.5 billion, US goods exports $120.3 billion. That's 4.5 to 1. Why so much asymmetry? I think 4 reasons: Hong Kong, macroeconomics, value-added, and oil 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

OK, I'm having a very nerdy moment. Trying to understand why US-China bilateral trade imbalance is so large. NOT because it's important, but just because it's kind of a puzzle; I guess it's my inner @Brad_Setser 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Is this really such a new result? I thought I learned many years ago that the reason peasants in the Caucasus and all that lived so long wasn't the yogurt, but their inability to count https://t.co/KIls2AONa7 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

It's probably the uncertainty created by Trump's trade war. Great work all around 2/ https://t.co/UQmLomaEoG — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So business is slashing investment despite having received a huge cut in corporate taxes 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

It's not even hypothetical. "Replacement theory" says that nonwhite immigration is a Jewish conspiracy. https://t.co/kTvXhytgq1 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Billionaires who back Trump, knowing what he is, because he cuts their taxes aren't just greedy. They're also fools, especially if they're Jewish (as Wikipedia says Ross is) You have to be totally ignorant of history not to know that we're always next https://t.co/JNc0cI781O — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

You can't understand Trump's trade policy without accepting the deep ignorance it's based on https://t.co/FNlszpCeWe — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @nytopinion: .@PaulKrugman says the Chinese have been trying to send Trump a message: “We can ruin your farmers and crash your stock mar… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Maybe I missed it, but how many econo-tweeters have noticed that Trump both bemoans the strong dollar and celebrates the capital inflows that keep it strong? https://t.co/NktskKVaJS — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Google is very good if you want to find facts — you always want to check, but it generally gets you to the right information quickly. The conservative complaint is basically that facts have a liberal bias https://t.co/mFbgyQ4izB — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

It's not just the protectionism, it's the capriciousness https://t.co/UQmLomaEoG — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Some sectors and regions will be hit hard, but Xi doesn't need to win the electoral college. Trump's confidence that he can "win" a trade war basically rests on ignorance and innumeracy 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

China has shown itself very capable of providing fiscal and monetary stimulus when it wants, even if there are some troubling long-run consequences. So it can easily — easily — offset the negative demand effect of Trump's trade war 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Worth keeping some numbers in mind. Chinese exports to the US ~ 4% of GDP. Because they contain a lot of imported content, value-added in these exports not much more than 2% of Chinese GDP. 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So Trump does think China is just like Mexico, and can be bullied into concessions 1/ https://t.co/nk6tIHbGVw — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @alanbeattie: There’s a reason the US hasn’t called China a currency manipulator since the 1990s. It carries almost no sanction and thus… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @menzie_chinn: I don't usually write this... but *WTF*. China clearly does not conform to the criteria listed by Treasury. The destructi… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Fact check: false. You can claim anything — the moon is made a green cheese, Donald Trump is a kind gentleman. Credibly is another question. Also, (a) is off by an order of magnitude. Roughly, Trump has imposed 20% new tariffs on average, yuan down by only about 2%. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @SoumayaKeynes: A thought, which is that Trump seems to think that the Chinese are paying the tariffs because the yuan has depreciated.… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Elite academics do their fields a favor by dying young, opening up space for new ideas. But is the death part necessary? Is developing a second career, say as a pundit, good enough? Asking for a friend. https://t.co/rgGwPW4Qqo — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @davidmwessel: Question: Did Mnuchin agree to label China a "currency manipulator" to divert Trump from (a more consequential) order to… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The trade beatings will continue until morale improves https://t.co/RrLWGuQ3FJ — PolitiTweet.org