Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I think we're starting to see that happening. The trade war is just one ingredient. There's also a decline in housing permits, maybe reflecting the bursting of a mini-bubble in real estate; European weakness, maybe home-grown, spilling over to the US ... 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Last year I suggested that the next slump would be a smorgasbord recession — no one big thing like a bursting housing bubble, but several middle-sized things 1/ https://t.co/Bwf9ZfUIgB — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Amazing how many people have spent time trying to project some rationality onto Trump trade policy. What looks like raw ignorance and prejudice is, in fact, raw ignorance and prejudice — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So we're left, as I said, with markets basically begging the government to do some investment, but this plea falling on deaf ears 7/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Another is that Trump and co just can't bring themselves to advocate anything that doesn't include scams on behalf of their cronies; so their vague suggestions for infrastructure always look more like stealth privatization than public investment 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

One is that Mitch McConnell and his wing of the party oppose any kind of government program, no matter how much good it might do — actually especially oppose programs that might work, and make people think better of government 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But why isn't the obvious thing happening? If Trump proposed a serious infrastructure plan, Dems would have a hard time saying no even though it would help him politically. But no such plan has been or will be offered, for a couple of reasons 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But not going to happen. One of my better takes early on was that the Trump infrastructure thing was never going to happen; sure enough, "infrastructure week" became a punchline, and now isn't even that 3/ https://t.co/alnlqhyMBf — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

These low, low rates are telling us several things: (a) private investment demand is really weak despite tax cuts (b) recession risks are pretty high (c) infrastructure! I mean, with borrowing virtually free, why not fix all those falling-down bridges? 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

As I wrote in yesterday's newsletter (to which you should subscribe!), amateurs talk about stocks, but professionals study bond markets. As of this morning the bond market is basically begging governments to borrow: the US 10-year real rate just 0.02 percent 1/ https://t.co/e44SX8Rvu7 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But this was obviously a defensive move to avoid price hikes before Christmas, not a change in Trump's world view or improvement in his decision-making. So why respond so strongly? 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The best going explanation of the tariffs/market link was that markets took tariff announcements as indications of broader decision process; to be blunt, how crazy Trump is. Hard-line announcements suggested more radicalism to come, softer announcements more rationality 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

There's been a lot of speculation about why the stock market reacts so strongly to trade policy news — way out of proportion to the direct economic impacts of Trump tariffs. Today's surge after Trump's decision to delay some tariffs deepens the mystery 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Notice the uncertainty. You don’t want to invest in a business that depends on imports, bc they might face tariffs. But u don’t want to invest in a biz that competes with imports, bc the tariffs might not happen — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Important background reading https://t.co/IYjoyNYbvU — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

No, if he loses it will be because he doesn't smile enough — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

News you can use. I sometimes run in the park (I'm 66 and fighting it), but check air quality first and use an indoor gym when it's bad. https://t.co/yxFHRozR8N — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I'm not saying that Kirchnerism was good — heterodoxy worked well for a while, but they didn't know when to stop. But now the Very Serious People have discredited themselves, yet again. A lot of credibility has once again been flushed down the drain 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

In normal times the Argentina story would be a very big deal. Macri's return to orthodoxy was supposed to mark the end of the heterodox/populist Kirchner era (actual populists, in this case). But orthodox policies are failing, bigly 1/ https://t.co/QT7liXAmvM — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Supporting an authoritarian because you think he'll cut your taxes means letting greed and ego override your judgment https://t.co/6CFs4ANKjV — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @nytopinion: "If you’re a billionaire supporting Trump not because of his racism but despite it, because you expect him to keep your tax… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

A correspondent writes to ask why Trump is pursuing a destructive trade war. "He must have smart advisers", the letter says. Ah, to be so innocent and oblivious. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Long-term bond yields — not stock prices — are the best indicator of confidence in future economic growth. They have really fallen off a cliff since late last year https://t.co/BhN0dLmBu0 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @paulwaldman1: I temporarily set aside my criticisms of Joe Biden to write this piece on why we should lay off him about the "gaffes": h… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Here's one measure we used a lot to track the 2000s bubble; it's not looking too good now. Low interest rates are a possible excuse, but still ... 2/ https://t.co/CbBtbcQrT1 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

An extra reason to be worried about the economy: we may have had a mini-housing bubble, which is now deflating despite very low interest rates 1/ https://t.co/8H9DF51aq3 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Spreading hate, by the numbers https://t.co/Thut7ABGwd — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Asymmetric polarization watch: some liberals wonder whether there's something fishy about Epstein's death; moderate liberals rush to warn against conspiracy theorizing. Meanwhile, Trump RTs claim that the Clintons did it, faces no visible conservative condemnation — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Yes, but. Vince Foster wasn't in federal custody and an obvious suicide risk. This calls for a credible investigation, with no possibility excluded. The motto here should be "distrust, but verify". — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @Brad_Setser: I am of course thrilled to learn that Paul Krugman (sometimes) has an inner Brad Setser! (If only I had an inner Paul… — PolitiTweet.org