Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Good piece by Neil Irwin. But one caveat: it's true that consumer spending is much bigger than business investment. But investment is much more volatile, and tends to drive the business cycle 1/ https://t.co/Wugjen8qyP — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Anyway, not a good parallel; among other things, Greenland kind of lacking in beaches. But worth noting, maybe 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

PS: I weigh a lot less these days than in that picture. 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I know about this bc of a personal connection. Also, it was a very special case: we actually bought it from the Danish government in exile, since DK was under German occupation 2/ https://t.co/UOruODYok8 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The Greenland thing is stupid, and suggests that Trump is losing (even more of) it. But I've been surprised not to see mentions of the U.S. Virgin Islands, which we in fact bought from Denmark in 1917 1/ https://t.co/sfMBueFqYr — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @Brad_Setser: Gonna pile on here. Germany made the euro area's 11-12 slump worse by doing its own (unnecessary) fiscal consolidation.… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I know that the German position is that everyone should be like them, and run big trade surpluses. Arithmetic has a well-known Keynesian bias 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Here's the German current account surplus as % of GDP. Notice that it didn't shrink AT ALL after the crisis, meaning that Germany was no help to struggling economies 2/ https://t.co/gJr6v69tpU — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Sorry, but the starting premise — that Germany helped troubled European economies power their way out of the slump — is all wrong. Spain, Greece etc. were forced to reduce their deficits, but Germany bore *none* of the corresponding adjustment 1/ https://t.co/Qc5CdLHUVB — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Nobody could have predicted https://t.co/gJbFuCrl1A — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I haven't seen people pointing this out, but we crossed another downward milestone this morning: the interest rate on inflation-protected 10-year bonds went negative. No excuse for obsessing over debt, and not building infrastructure https://t.co/7Nh6WPmxkg — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Hard to predict if a recession is coming — but easy to predict Trump team's response if it does: 1. It's fake news disseminated by the deep state 2. It's the Fed's fault 3. It's China's fault 4. It's Ilhan Omar's fault 5. Cut taxes on the rich! 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Worth remembering that a lot of figures in the GOP were in complete denial during the 2007-9 crisis — and those are the kind of people who make up Trump's brain trust, such as it is 2/ https://t.co/icV9eq8rep — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Live shot of Trump economic team preparing for possible downturn 1/ https://t.co/Dn8rV0Jh2Q — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Proposed title for the book about Trump's purchase of Greenland: Donald's Sense of Snow Jobs — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Barry Ritholtz is thinking along the same lines 2/ https://t.co/pjAHWRbMsI — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The smart money thinks Trumponomics is a flop 1/ https://t.co/OIOw1XmO15 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

A white state, obviously — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @GC_CUNY: “This is not like 2008,” but “there are a number of warning signs,” says Prof. @paulkrugman. Hear why https://t.co/evR7dqHcLe… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Funny thought: I wonder if Trump wishes he had reappointed Janet Yellen to the Fed (a reappointment she richly deserved — but he didn't think she was tall enough). She might have been more dovish; but even if not, she would be much easier to demonize as an Obama holdover. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @crampell: Real econ risk is if things go wrong, WH doesn't have a plan & doesn't have any competent personnel to come up with one. Trum… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

No contingency planning except to lean on the Fed (which probably couldn't come to the rescue in time for election anyway), and total inability to conceptualize the problem 2/ https://t.co/jUI3iTmp0f — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Objectively, the economic problems are nowhere near as serious as 2008, or even 2001. But we're being led by the gang that couldn't think straight 1/ https://t.co/8Fuclu1bjb — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I was recently on a nature tour, and the leader said that he avoids talking about the age of the geological formations we were seeing "because of religious people" — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Put it this way: one story is that we've been in secular stagnation all along, and the only thing that really changed was a temporary bout of irrational exuberance at the Fed 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

That now looks like a clear mistake — partly bc the Fed misjudged the labor market, partly bc it gave too much credence to stimulus from tax cut. But I think this story makes the yield curve inversion less ominous than it might otherwise seem 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

One small note of non-panic over bond yields: the 10-year has fallen in half, but it's still a bit higher than it was in much of 2016, when it didn't presage recession. The reason we have a yield curve inversion is that the Fed raised short-term rates 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @ForecasterEnten: Trump rarely gets above a -9 pt net approval rating (overall 44-45% approval) with voters, and this is, in voters' min… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @titonka: Once again: pushing the MANLY JOBS. Gender is woven into So. Much. Of President Trump’s rhetoric, and often, quite blatantly.… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

...the petering out of the tax cut; tensions in Asia, etc. etc. The inverted yield curve is NOT an independent cause, but rather a reflection of worries about all this. Still hard to see another 2008. But another 1990-91 looking q possible 3/ — PolitiTweet.org