Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @nytimes: In Opinion @PaulKrugman writes, "There’s a sense in which the whole world has a Germany problem, but it’s up to the Germans t… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So monetary policy is actually much looser than the administration assumed when making its rosy forecasts. This doesn't mean that the Fed was right to raise rates, but it does mean that blaming the Fed for the failure of the tax cut is rewriting history 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Yep: their forecast, which called for 3+ percent growth as far as the eye can see, was predicated on the assumption that short-term rates would be 2.7% — they're actually under 2 — and long-term rates 3.2% — they're actually less than half that 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Given the way Trump is lashing out against the Federal Reserve, I thought it might be interesting to look at the White House's own monetary projections from a year ago 1/ https://t.co/daIIGxncb2 https://t.co/qjj1QJcuVt — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The point is that nothing — not the Bush financial crisis, not the Kansas disaster, not the disappointment of the Trump tax cut — ever leads him to change his faith in the miracle of tax cuts for the rich 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Kudlow, like his master, refuses to acknowledge or learn from mistakes. The quintessential Kudlowism involved Bill Clinton's tax hike: Kudlow predicted disaster. Then, when the economy boomed, he said it was a delayed effect of the 1981 (!) Reagan tax cut 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Predictions are hard, especially about the future. The question is what you do when you make a bad prediction (which everyone does sometimes). Do you admit the mistake, ask why you made it, and learn? 1/ https://t.co/0mkX0p6kIy — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I'm not worried. I'm absolutely confident that it will happen. How can it not? — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Is America ready for a politician who can admit mistakes and learn from experience? — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @AdamSerwer: An entire ideological cadre of rightwingers trained to invoke the history of the founding in service to their ideological g… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Do old white guys in diners feel rich? Because that's all that matters https://t.co/UjqaGcslH3 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @BCAppelbaum: Recapping this morning's messaging from the White House: The economy is doing great. There definitely won't be a recession… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Also, I missed this Hugh Hewitt piece, which is classic. It combines "weaponized Keynesianism" — gov spending creates jobs but only if it's on weapons — with an explicit demand that military procurement be used for partisan advantage. America first! 3/ https://t.co/2y17LbbMq8 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Already coming true 2/ https://t.co/qGvh9eAwgO — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

A few days ago, I made a prediction 1/ https://t.co/yB75muJK4X — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Fact check: false. He has an almost magical ability to make the public like things he attacks, like trade and immigration — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

that latter one was from Dec. 2007. Of course we all make bad predictions — but Kudlow is *always* wrong 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Counterpoint 2/ https://t.co/Cwb1AgHRz4 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Point 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Which is not to say that Germany is innocent. Its debt obsession is hugely destructive to Europe and to a significant extent to the world as a whole. But that's a different topic 10/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But if "Germany" includes BE + NL, it way *overpredicts* German surplus. This might be because Rotterdam and Antwerp are serving other destinations besides Germany ... Anyway, the point is that there's no sign of asymmetric market access — "unfair" policy — in US/Germany 9/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

This would imply German exports to US / German imports from US = (German total exports/German total imports) * (US total imports/ US total exports). This falls a bit short if applied to Germany alone 8/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

My version is something like German exports to US = German share of world exports * Total US imports * distance factor; and similarly US exports to Germany = US share of world exports * Total German imports * distance factor 7/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I've been working with a gravity-type model; if someone can relate this to something more formal, say, Eaton-Kortum, please do! 6/ https://t.co/YlG67s0pvq — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

If you look at the US trade imbalance with GE+BE+NL, it's actually surprisingly small: US imports only 1.18 times exports, which is well short of our overall imbalance with the world. Which is especially surprising bc GE+BE+NL run a surplus with world at large 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

What's that about? Pretty sure it's the role of Antwerp and Rotterdam as ports of entry for U.S. goods being transshipped elsewhere in Europe, including Germany. Something about the characteristics of the goods seems to mean US stuff goes via Antwerp, German via Hamburg 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

When you look at China/US, it's important to include Hong Kong. When you look at Germany/US, it's even more important to include Belgium and the Netherlands — both countries with which US runs trade *surpluses* 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

One factor might be Germany's bilateral surplus — it exports more than twice as much to America as it imports. But why? I'm having another nerdy moment here, like the one on China 2/ https://t.co/TAINqcjo8p — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

In case you were wondering whether recent market developments have induced any rethinking of the proposition that trade wars are good and easy to win, Trump sounds ready to launch another front against Europe 1/ https://t.co/h5WfKl9Qvk — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Here's the picture. It omits housing, which has tended to be even more important in driving ups and downs 2/ https://t.co/GhpO1qQZVm — PolitiTweet.org