Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Gibson's novel, and presumably the TV show, involve struggling working-class Americans from the near future dealing with strange sort-of time travel conspiracies. It's great. But I suddenly noticed that the protagonists are rural and, probably, white 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But it suddenly occurred to me that there's an overlap with today's newsletter 2/ https://t.co/Bf61YfBmZu — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So, I've been working hard this week, and am about to quietly quit for at least the rest of tonight. Nerving myself up to watch "The Peripheral", hoping that the Westworld team does justice to William Gibson 1/ https://t.co/Z2Pw8YaB65 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Grievance based on perceptions — mostly untrue https://t.co/Bf61YfkjXu — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @nytopinion: “It’s hard to think of a worse metric for judging a president and his party than” gas prices, @paulkrugman writes, “a price… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Am I the only person who sees this picture and keeps looking for a dog wearing a hat? https://t.co/VmYyvtZSz4 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But of course if you point that out rural voters will just see that as another example of elite disdain. It's really a no-win situation 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

You can see this by looking at states' federal balance of payments — what they receive versus what they pay. Huge inflows to the most rural states 2/ https://t.co/o1Gvy3FZJp — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

What's depressing about this is that in reality rural America is heavily subsidized by urban America 1/https://t.co/SNKAKJu7KX — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I think the lettuce is gonna win https://t.co/BWoYZhPXae via @YouTube — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @TBPInvictus: A pleasure to meet @Claudia_Sahm IRL last night, ahead of tonight's panel with @paulkrugman. Thanks to other dinner guests… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

More on this: 10/ https://t.co/igJpFHdq5P — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Alas, "My opponent doesn't understand energy economics" probably not a good campaign line. So gas prices, insanely, may have a decisive effect. Sigh 9/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And of course in 2020 gas was further depressed bc the whole world economy was still crippled by Covid. So the whole "under Trump gas was $2!" thing relies on voter ignorance 8/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

What happened in 2014? The fracking boom — which was, it turned out, a bubble, with massive losses underwritten by lenders who overestimated the returns. Not reasonable to expect gas as cheap as during that era 7/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Third, gas is actually relatively affordable by historical standards. One metric I like: cost of 10 gallons divided by average hourly wage, i.e. how many hours of work it takes to buy 10 gallons. This measure lower now than it was for almost the whole period before 2014 6/ https://t.co/TDbiAiOrjx — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Is market power an issue? I wouldn't rule it out on principle; I still remember the California electricity crisis of 2000-1. But not what I'm hearing now 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Second, smaller fluctuations can be driven by technical issues at refineries; refinery outages appear to be mostly responsible for the recent uptick in prices, and prices are coming down as these problems are getting resolved 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Three things to know. First, the biggest determinant of gas prices is crude prices, which are set on world markets, not by US policy 3/ https://t.co/xg8IuAfn2A — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Control of Congress, and maybe the future of democracy, may well depend on the extent to which the uptick in gas prices that began in September is reversed by Election Day (prices now falling fast in some regions) 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

One of the most depressing things about US political economy is the salience of gas prices, which for the most part have nothing to do with policy. $5 gas earlier this year seemingly made a red wave inevitable; Democratic recovery was driven by Roe but also by falling gas 1/ https://t.co/dxi4l8ObWp — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But I'd argue that there's a lot of economic contraction still in the pipeline. I'd hope the Fed is paying attention 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

What this means, I think, is that the impact of soaring interest rates on the economy, which works largely through housing, is still mostly ahead of us. We'll know more when we get advance estimates of residential investment in 3rd quarter GDP 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

From the always valuable Bill McBride: Housing starts falling fast, but # of houses under construction hitting a record — because of lags, probably exacerbated by supply-chain issues 1/ https://t.co/IWMsaSXLuV — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @JanetGornick: Tonight! 6:30pm. In-person or streamed. Inflation? Recession? Excess demand? Clogged supply chains? The Fed - too much,… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I hope this is true. If so, not that much shelter inflation in the pipeline. But either way, current rent inflation appears to be back to pre pandemic rates — NTRR actually falling, altho prob a blip — so the BLS number isn't an indication of overheating — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

If you think that these lagged effects will in practice lead to further Fed tightening, well, I hope they're smarter than that 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

If you think the lagged effects of past rent increases, which don't reflect current overheating, are a reason for the Fed to tighten, you've misunderstood the principle, the reason we estimate core in the first place 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But what if, as seems likely, core inflation stays high for a while because shelter is mostly continuing leases, so it reflects what was going on in rental markets many months ago — but not what's happening now? 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

If you want to know the cost of living, you just want the CPI. Core tries to answer different question: is the economy running too hot? The standard measure excludes food and energy prices because they're volatile and often driven by shocks that don't relate to this question 2/ — PolitiTweet.org