Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Imagine a company whose profits you didn't expect to be significantly hurt by Covid-19; you'd expect a similar rise in its share price. So even companies that will be hit could see gains simply bc of low rates 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

One example, which just happened to be easily accessible: iShares long term Treasury ETF. It's up about 30% since last fall 3/ https://t.co/ShBtA75vAq — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

When you buy a stock, you're buying a claim on a stream of future profits, which is something like buying a bond. In fact, bond ETFs literally are an indirect way of buying bonds — and they're way up 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Tomorrow's col will be about the disconnect between stocks and the real economy, mainly making a point I'm surprised more people aren't emphasizing: interest rates have plunged, making stocks more attractive 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So yes, it's horrific, which you already knew. And already probably worse than CBO projections! Sorry, but this was an itch I needed to scratch 9/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And continued claims are up by 16M, which is surely an underestimate. So true rise in unemployment somewhere in between. Split the difference and it's 24M, which is 15% of the labor force, implying an unemployment rate of something like 18% 8/ https://t.co/ZMOXPSXlpU — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

On the other hand, if we look at *continued* claims — people actually getting benefits — the relationship goes the other way, with UI understating true unemployment 7/ https://t.co/vJWQNlaJjy — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I've been talking to people about this, and one answer may be that people apply multiple times after being rejected or failing to get an answer. Not sure about whether that's right. But some reason to doubt the 30 M job loss figure 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The NY Fed blog found similar results for NOLA after Katrina: around twice as many claims as job losses 5/ https://t.co/VEdaomp1QI — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

For example, here's annual sums of initial claims and measured unemployment over the course of the Great Recession. In 2008-2009 there were around 18 M "excess" claims, but "only" around 8 M rise in unemployment 4/ https://t.co/Guy7abEoqY — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But if you look at the historical record, initial claims seem to overstate, not understate, job loss in slumps — and that's even if you discount the normal churn that causes several hundred thousand a week even in good times 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So, we've had an amazing 30 million initial claims over a very short period. Plus, state offices that process these claims are both overwhelmed and in many cases designed to reject people. So it's natural to assume that true job loss >30M 2/ https://t.co/gnFfu9FRgP — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I'm a bit behind on economic data, partly because we know it's terrible and also know that the very short-term data that are we have so far are very imperfect. But I thought it might be worth some wonkish notes on unemployment claims 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @nytopinion: On Thursday at 11 am ET, columnist @PaulKrugman will (virtually) join @andrewrsorkin and @m_delamerced of @dealbook to disc… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

This is another example of the food chain issue: groceries different from what people cook at home — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

@jbouie Indeed. Very few people realize how quickly the economy rebounded during FDR's first term; by modern concepts, unemployment in 1936 was down to around 9 percent https://t.co/PwB5F2cfqY — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Not totally obvious from the headline, but actually bad news. Germany has loosened a little — and R0, the number of people each infectee infects in turn, has gone from 0.7 back up to 1. Bodes ill for restart efforts everywhere https://t.co/E5VFmiqmvk — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The headlines will all be about the triumphs of Glorious Leader, because the free press will be dead. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Beware the damage done by fake deficit hawks https://t.co/99uF1tRy33 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Whoops. Forgot to link data source: https://t.co/h8Uy5do3y4 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

We'll see. But not too surprising if a few months from now FL and TX are screaming for an aid package. 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Look at the big four. CA and NY get most of their revenue from income taxes, which may hold up fairly well: high-income workers less likely to be laid off, often able to work from home. FL and TX have no income tax, dependent on sales taxes, which must be plummeting 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

As states exchange insults over who subsidizes who (yes, blue states subsidize red states), some people I've been talking to are suggesting that red states may face a worse fiscal crisis than blue this time around, bc of their different revenue bases 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Schrodinger's dictator — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And Jennifer Rubin is saying pretty much the same thing 2/ https://t.co/wouo8VEKI1 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I guess I'm not the only one who thinks this; Trump has abruptly abandoned his self-promotional news conferences 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Great Depression 2.0 here we come — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Disaster relief is not going well https://t.co/fYEcS05Wfd — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Blood on his hands, or actually his mouth https://t.co/agMHL5jY75 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Right now CBO is projecting deficits for 2020 close to WWII levels as a share of GDP — and long-term interest rates are close to a record low. The best way to think about all of this is that it's about finding excuses not to help Those People and to punish blue states 3/ — PolitiTweet.org