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Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
Nobody could have predicted that someone who wrote "Dow 36,000" in the 90s and denied there was a housing bubble in the 2000s would get Covid-19 wrong https://t.co/7UFoOYbM7Y https://t.co/OIhuHDMG3B — PolitiTweet.org
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
Gah. Forgot to include the link in the 1st tweet 3/ https://t.co/TftKQ2qAon — PolitiTweet.org
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
Wrong forecasts happen to everyone. If you keep being wrong in the same direction, you need to rethink your model! 2/ — PolitiTweet.org
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
The way the Trump admin's favored model keeps predicting a rapid decline in cases that doesn't happen reminds me of monetary projections after 2010, when the Fed kept predicting a normalization of interest rates that kept not happening 1/ — PolitiTweet.org
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
So we really are looking at a labor market as bad as most of the GD, surpassed only by the very worst years 2/ — PolitiTweet.org
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
Perspective on where we are now: consensus is for 16% unemployment in April, probably higher later. How does that compare with estimates for the 1930s that correspond with modern concepts (from Hist Stats of US Millennial Edition)? 1/ https://t.co/efnGRYp0uF — PolitiTweet.org
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
Instead, it was all about the emergence and then containment of a potential financial crisis, as documented in this excellent St. Louis Fed resource 3/ https://t.co/wPlVDx20r7 https://t.co/FzsTrcYra7 — PolitiTweet.org
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
The crash and partial recovery of stocks this year had little to do with the economic news, which has pretty much gotten steadily worse; no, stock investors aren't betting on a V-shaped recovery 2/ https://t.co/f4WQgN65dw — PolitiTweet.org
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
A bit more about markets versus the real economy. I'm a bit disappointed that so many people — including financial reporters! — still assume that the stock market is telling us something about real economic prospects 1/ https://t.co/ORihE5ix6n — PolitiTweet.org
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
Gonna be doing a virtual 92nd St. Y talk. Hoping to help sustain the institution! https://t.co/Q7Z54gkToa — PolitiTweet.org
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
Actually over other people’s dead bodies - literally https://t.co/iGbmHG7yXK — PolitiTweet.org
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
Krugman: U.S. almost surely headed for Depression-era unemployment https://t.co/VCsl6b7LQ4 — PolitiTweet.org
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
RT @nytopinion: . @PaulKrugman responded to readers commenting on his column "Crashing Economy, Rising Stocks: What’s Going On?" Read their… — PolitiTweet.org
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
Again, I'm doing a series of video presentations about the current state of affairs; the first (which is free) is "When workers can't work," released this AM. You can register here https://t.co/svcuYWKriz — PolitiTweet.org
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
Two lessons here. First, the Fed saved the world economy from total disaster (again). Second, the stock rebound is not a sign that everything will soon be OK. It's not telling us that the economy is great, but rather that investment opportunities other than stocks are lousy 8/ — PolitiTweet.org
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
But the Fed rode to the rescue, with massive asset purchases that contained the losses. The incipient financial crisis faded away, while low interest rates continued to give stocks a boost 7/ https://t.co/32TG3ID2Mz — PolitiTweet.org
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
The best story for that, I think, is the old Shleifer-Vishny 1997 point: even though some corporate debt was clearly undervalued, big losses depleted the capital of firms that would normally bid up the price of that debt 6/ https://t.co/7gp6YZ1lV6 — PolitiTweet.org
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
So what was that March plunge about? For a little while we were on the edge of a major financial crisis. Some companies will very likely go under bc of Covid-19, and there was financial contagion to the rest of the corporate bond market 5/ https://t.co/Gcibh4wjtY — PolitiTweet.org
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
So imagine a company you expect to have fairly steady profits over the long term. The price of that stock should move like bond prices — that is, it should be way up. Even given adverse impacts of the virus, fairly strong stock prices not really a surprise 4/ — PolitiTweet.org
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
The first key point is that interest rates have plunged. Here's the rate on 30-year Treasuries, which has fallen almost in half this year. This corresponds to a rise in price: if you bought a $1000 bond late last year, it would be worth around $1800 now 3/ https://t.co/Nn2q9smFVp — PolitiTweet.org
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
The stock market plunged briefly in March, but rebounded strongly in April, to levels comparable to late fall. There hasn't been any comparable swing in economic news, which just keeps getting worse. So what's going on? 2/ https://t.co/tdfqHhrVom — PolitiTweet.org
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
Today's column was about something people ask me about a lot — the disconnect between terrible economic news and a rebound in stocks. Largely to clarify my own thoughts, here's a thread on financial markets in 2020 so far 1/ https://t.co/YMIcli3RzE — PolitiTweet.org
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
And just off camera, someone with no interest in economics https://t.co/Jc4HG52iOI — PolitiTweet.org
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
Going on Morning Joe in a few minutes — PolitiTweet.org
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
For those who didn't see last night's tweet, I'm doing a series of economics videos about the state we're in. The first, which is free, titled "When workers can't work," will be available starting at 8 AM Eastern today. You can register at the link below. https://t.co/svcuYWKriz — PolitiTweet.org
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
RT @nytopinion: Imagine where we’d be now if the Fed had responded to a looming financial crisis the way the Trump administration responded… — PolitiTweet.org
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
RT @nytopinion: "The market’s resilience does, in fact, make some sense despite the terrible economic news," says https://t.co/l7ypQN9A3N b… — PolitiTweet.org
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
Here's a two-minute sample. If you sign up, you can watch the first full video for free any time after 8 AM EST Friday. Much more to come in future videos about these, um, interesting times 2/ https://t.co/WYf1h2I1HR — PolitiTweet.org
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
May 1st is May Day, when much of the world celebrates workers. But what happens when workers can't work? That's the subject of the first video from a new subscription service, https://t.co/JQwk0JsnpH, where I'll be chatting informally and answering question. 1/ — PolitiTweet.org
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
So resilience of stocks not as much of an anomaly as people may think — but also not a good omen for the economy. It mostly says that there are no good investments out there, so stocks are attractive even in a pandemic 5/ — PolitiTweet.org