Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

That said, remember that expanded benefits expire July 31, state and local governments are in desperate straits, and while US markets have been stabilized, emerging markets and the euro area are still very much at risk 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The question now becomes how fast we can recover, which is what I'm mainly working on now. What I argued yesterday was that the main thing constraining recovery won't be debt overhangs and the other things that hurt after 2009, but epidemiology 3/ https://t.co/4LxtfRQW1T — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

What this says is that the feared second-round effects — slumping demand bc of loss of incomes, financial crisis — have been contained thanks to things like expanded unemployment benefits and massive Fed intervention 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Very preliminary, but it looks as if we may have hit bottom on the Covid-19 slump, at least for now 1/ https://t.co/TunjkcX4No — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But anyway, we're witnessing a lethal abdication of responsibility whose consequences will be quickly apparent. It's truly awesome to watch 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Why take that risk? Partly they may be high on their own supply, no longer able to conceive that there is an objective reality that might be politically inconvenient. Partly I think it's because they know in their hearts that they can't actually do the job of governing 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

In other words, the GOP has in effect decided to ignore the science at the clear risk of being held accountable in the near future both for killing thousands and for wrecking the economy, because that's what a premature opening would do 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But what's going on now seems to involve a new level of *political* recklessness. Climate change takes place over decades; inflation truthers paid no political or personal price for being wrong again and again. But if the virus erupts, it will happen quickly 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

At one level this shouldn't be surprising. It's the same script the party has followed on climate change, and the virus truthers are a lot like the inflation truthers who insisted that we had runaway inflation under Obama 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Where we are now: it seems clear that the GOP's political arm has effectively decided to give up on trying to control Covid and reopen the economy; the propaganda arm (Fox and worse) is going all in for conspiracy theorizing and virus trutherism 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @JustinWolfers: Enough with the how to guides. https://t.co/yKLjM3eR1u — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @nytopinion: "Trump’s search for an easy way out, his lack of patience for the hard work of containing a pandemic, may be precisely what… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

If we have a depression, it will be because Trump and those around him are quitters who won't stay the course https://t.co/4LxtfS8wTr — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I did All Things Considered over the weekend. Listen here https://t.co/GjRlH04xBN — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

What the hell? That was a great, prescient book that made a huge impression on me, and I suspect many people would like to revisit it — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @brianbeutler: Bloomberg pretends to believe Republicans when they pretend to believe that the U.S. deficit is becoming problematic. htt… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I'll be doing a virtual talk at the 92nd St. Y on pandemic economics tomorrow https://t.co/Q7Z54gkToa — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Some political irony here: Trump/GOP demands for early opening and refusal to extend relief may be what prolongs the slump, so that people are still miserable in November 13/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Second, while structural problems didn't bring on the slump, slump may create problems that extend its shadow — eg state fiscal crises, widespread household and business bankruptcies etc 12/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Two big caveats: First, recovery depends on dramatic decline in social distancing, which depends on virus/fear of virus. If premature opening leads to extended plateau or 2nd wave, slump can go on and on 11/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I ran that chart back to 2008 in order to show that markets can be wrong. In early stages of recovery from 2008 crisis markets effectively bet on a V-shaped recovery that never arrived. Making the same mistake in reverse now? 10/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The market doesn't seem to agree! Never mind stocks: medium-term interest rates suggest that the market expects policy rates to be near zero for a long time 9/ https://t.co/ejt3fDlfzJ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So where does the Covid-19 slump fit? Despite myself, I'm (very) guardedly optimistic. The virus is arguably more like the shock of temporarily high interest rates than like an overhang of excess household debt. So fairly fast recovery seems possible 8/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I think we understand the difference. Slumps like 1979-82 brought on by the Fed raising rates to squeeze down inflation; as soon as it relented demand sprang back. Later slumps were Minsky moments, when the private sector realized it had overreached. Much harder to restart 7/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Past 6 recessions show two very different kinds of recovery — rapid surges after pre-1990, extended "jobless recovery" in later cycles 6/ https://t.co/STOwvGItEC — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Reasonably certain that we will have something like a Nike swoosh — recovery much slower than initial descent, but q is how fast. 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

First of all, maybe a good idea to stop talking about whether there will be a V-shaped recovery, bc unclear what that means. Growth in 1934-6 was very fast, but not nearly enough to bring tolerable unemployment 4/ https://t.co/JEthQJCgYP — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But how long does this go on? Short answer is nobody knows. Long answer, I think, is that it depends hugely on the course of the pandemic — which may seem like a "well, duh" proposition but a bit more to it than that 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

True unemployment probably ~20%. If so, worse than all but the worst 2 years of the Great Depression, according to estimates that try to apply modern concepts to available historical data 2/ https://t.co/sZ06xl2yAW — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Friday's employment report was devastating — and reality almost surely worse. The BLS itself says that the unemployment number was probably understated 1/ https://t.co/qAA4NeiC3C https://t.co/pIF1YYuXSt — PolitiTweet.org