Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And as I look at the data, I'm starting to believe that the modest job gains may well have been real, not an artifact of the models. I was already on record saying that predictions of a huge job loss didn't look right 2/ https://t.co/v6KvqREFWx — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Getting a lot of outraged pushback over even allowing the possibility of something amiss at BLS. I was just covering myself, because so many weird things have happened lately. But I apologize for any suggestion that a highly professional agency might have been corrupted. 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And, right on cue, a disastrous response from the usual hacks 5/ https://t.co/ziy6yGBRDS — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Important to remember, however, that this is what the economy looks like with massive income support that in turn helped sustain spending. If that support expires on schedule, things may quickly get much worse 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

FWIW, after spending some time looking at the tables, I'm actually feeling less inclined to think that the models were off. The job gains were in sectors where you would expect them from a slight relaxation of social distancing 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Again, I consider it very unlikely — like at least 99.9 percent unlikely — that there was any hanky-panky. And the numbers actually kind of make sense. But we are living in strange times, in which assertions about what Trump and co. can't/won't do have often come to grief. 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I agree that it's very, very unlikely. It's just that so many unthinkable things have happened lately that I don't feel confident in anything. But agree that the BLS is a bastion of integrity. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

About 2/3 of the reported jobs gain came from restaurants (+1.4 million) and dentists (+245K). This actually kind of makes sense given relaxed social distancing. https://t.co/RKqluCWuTL — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Whatever happened, these numbers should make you more, not less, pessimistic about the economic outlook. Why? Because they will reinforce the White House inclination to do nothing and let emergency aid expire 4/ https://t.co/yoo3F6TAo0 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

This being the Trump era, you can't completely discount the possibility that they've gotten to the BLS, but it's much more likely that the models used to produce these numbers — they aren't really raw data — have gone haywire in a time of pandemic 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I've been through a number of episodes over the years in which official numbers tell a story at odds with what more informal evidence suggests; often it turns out that there was something quirky (NOT fraudulent) about the official numbers. 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Well, the BLS reports a GAIN in jobs and a FALL in unemployment, which almost nobody saw coming. Maybe it's true, and the BLS is definitely doing its best, but you do have to wonder what's going on. 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

We're a better nation than we were in 1970 — but our democracy is on the edge https://t.co/9K485K5d36 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I still think it's the MAGAbunker — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @ericuman: The U.S. Park Police union just said those Australian journalists in Lafayette Park were "in the middle of violent protesters… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I just couldn't do an economics column for tomorrow. But you can watch my video briefing, "The glums of August: what happens when emergency aid expires?" https://t.co/v4kgwZbjuz — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

New briefing up: "The Glums of August". Emergency relief has contained the economic damage from Covid-19, but what… https://t.co/PpaNLPYMrm — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @digby56: The full audio of Trump explaining the bunker "inspection" is simply hilarious. He's like the five-year-old caught with chocol… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Lots of polling suggesting that Trump's law-and-order shtick is backfiring. But remember, Fox news viewers don't see Trump cowering in the MAGAbunker, then emerging to order peaceful protesters gassed. They see a heroic leader protecting them from antifa hordes — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Leveling off at Depression-era unemployment is not a policy success — especially since enhanced unemployment benefits set to expire July 31 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT WE'RE OUT OF THE WOODS. True unemployment probably near 25% 3/ https://t.co/gs5pnh9iiR https://t.co/zzfsqbbs36 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

New York Fed weekly economic indicator 2/ https://t.co/bd8NP3dE4d — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Things are getting worse more slowly. I don't know why economists were surprised. I though it was clear from a number of indicators that the decline has pretty much leveled off 1/ https://t.co/aMn9s1tZnM — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Every time you think you know how disastrous the response has been ... https://t.co/WR9Ahpf4TG — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

More about Sweden 4/ https://t.co/R67DbqhWxh — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Who says that Republicans don't believe in industrial policy? The Trump team wants to subsidize activities that spread Covid-19 https://t.co/9wE4VJnzKa https://t.co/F6FK09Mngx — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But in economic terms, not so much 3/ https://t.co/TlrLSdlGCL — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Also, the Swedish approach of accepting more deaths to keep the economy humming — which a lot of Wall Street types are urging us to adopt — is succeeding on the death side 2/ https://t.co/iT7n9g61cM — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Eurostat data on unemployment are out. It's now official: the US unemployment surge is unique 1/ https://t.co/boGd8PcmXc https://t.co/5YSYBbjnPu — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Indeed. One could write a book about that ... oh, wait — PolitiTweet.org