Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So even if you think 2020-21 is going to be lousy, if you think Amazon will be making money in 2025— and your alternative is govt bonds that yield 1% less than inflation — buying Amazon isn't that strange 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

That is, how much should an expected dollar of FAANG profits 5 years from now be worth today? That depends on the returns on alternative assets — like, say, inflation-protected government bonds. And those returns are at record lows 4/ https://t.co/B2HM85FRLK — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

What affects this discounted value? The expected state of the economy over the next few quarters *shouldn't* matter much, as long as we're eventually going to recover. What should matter a lot, however, is the discount rate 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

In 2020, the stock market is dominated by a handful of tech giants that can expect to earn a steady stream of monopoly or quasi-monopoly rents for years to come. The value of these companies should depend on the discounted value of those streams2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

One really encouraging thing about the past few days is that nobody seems to care about the stock market hitting new highs. Good judgment! The stock market is not the economy. Still, is there a puzzle here? Less than you might imagine 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

With everything else going on, not sure how many people are tracking the fiscal cliff. But if I'm reading daily Treasury stmt right, so far this month the feds have paid out $29.5 b in UI, compared with $60.8 b for the same period last month. Huge hit to unemployed in progress — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Full disclosure: I worked college summers as a temporary letter-carrier. So I guess I'm biased, especially because everyone except dogs loves the mailman https://t.co/BfcgWjrzip — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

It’s not just about stealing an election, although that too https://t.co/byzWJ50X34 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @mattyglesias: Setting aside the prefunding issue. If you ran USPS like a business it would do what mobile phone and broadband compani… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Think of the Post Office as, among other things, the public option of mail delivery — keeping FedEx and UPS from abusing their oligopoly 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And if you ask why we can't just leave it to the private sector, there are multiple reasons — one of which is that abuse of private market power has historically been a huge issue 2/ https://t.co/5vy7FNFxUq — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Doing some homework on the history of the Post Office. The immediate concern is that Trump may be trying to steal the election by crippling the institution. But he's also trying to undermine an institution that has been crucial in nation-building 1/ https://t.co/9yht7csx5Y — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @TopherSpiro: Great band, support them if you can https://t.co/2TSxAtfOsV — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The new Eurostat numbers say that Sweden and Denmark have had identical economic performance: ~8% GDP decline over past year. So all Sweden got from its herd immunity strategy was a bunch of dead Swedes https://t.co/2HGCAX8TcP https://t.co/k9aN9DOZxA — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Pardon my early morning art work, but here's GA versus Portugal, which has roughly the same population; scales more or less matching 2/ https://t.co/kb3aOSHmCU — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Ya think? 1/ https://t.co/EBgtjnimRL — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Business econs I talk to think there will be a deal. But why? The Trump "plan" is totally unworkable, but will probably prevent any real deal for months. Again, why aren't we panicking? 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

My back of the envelope says consumer spending cuts ~ 3% of GDP coming, plus S&L govt cuts of ~1% of GDP. That's a negative demand shock of 4% of GDP, probably with a substantial multiplier. This is financial-crisis level stuff 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

From the CBO: Huge fiscal support for families in business last month, almost all of it disappearing 2/ https://t.co/L6FNUliHtl — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I don't understand why more people aren't freaking out about the fiscal cliff. State and local governments, with the prospect of aid receding fast, are on the verge of huge cutbacks 1/ https://t.co/RcW0ywbaJt — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Many people, myself included, praise the widely shared progress of the first postwar generation. But it was in large part a welfare state for white people https://t.co/NScVEymvFZ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

This was really hard to write. The gap between reality and the stories we tell ourselves still has the power to shock https://t.co/yB6A7bJ4dq — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Like I’ve been saying, it’s the hydroxychloroquine of economic policies — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So, have the Rs called Kamala Harris stupid yet? They do it to AOC, who's obviously smarter than the vast majority of her colleagues (which isn't hard, to be fair). They did it, God help us, to Obama. So you know it's coming. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So, if Trump delivers his speech at Gettysburg, it will be at Little Round Top and be a eulogy for the 20th Maine, right? https://t.co/WU0Sqr54aj — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @TBPInvictus: I have been privileged to be a part of this incredible documentary project on wealth and income inequality. Please click t… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Oh, and since I managed to get Harris's name wrong through sheer fat-finger incompetence, I guess I should sign off as Pual Kurgman 12/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

One thing is clear: we will adapt. That's what modern societies do, given even slightly competent leadership. Oh, wait 11/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

One thing I worry about is how much of a long-term blow we're delivering to the most effective mass transit system ever devised — the elevator 10/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

We'll also change the way we work. Still not clear how much remote work will take over; on one side it has received formidable infant industry protection, giving employers an incentive to make it work. But the downsides also becoming apparent over time 9/ — PolitiTweet.org