Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So, I hear something happened in the market today. Anyone who tells you they know why thereby proves that they have no idea what they're talking about. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Anyway, if we're in Trump's "super V", nobody told the Fed 5/ https://t.co/phqi2UNhf0 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Also interesting how much darker the tone is than in the corresponding report from 2012 4/ https://t.co/coiTlOosJ6 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

One interesting observation is that one thing holding recovery back is child care or rather the lack thereof 3/ https://t.co/hteFMMjNNZ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The current edition seems consistent with the scattered high-frequency data we're all looking at: after a few months of rapid recovery that still left us deep in the hole we're looking at a slow upward slog 2/ https://t.co/U0qyjMUNtC — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The Beige Book — economics by talking to people — is one of the Fed's more interesting institutions. It seems especially useful now, when conventional economic measures are having a hard time dealing with crazy times 1/ https://t.co/Zn9O9BakzX — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

A darker share of beige — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Anyway, important to realize that claims of urban anarchy are almost entirely fantasy. 8/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

As I mentioned in yesterday's newsletter, even some well-educated people I know believe that the brief episode of looting in the early stages of the NYC BLM protests left much of Manhattan a wreck; how many people think Portland 2020 is Newark 1967? 7/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

My favorite letter of all time was from a supporter of Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who insisted that us urban Northeasterners just didn't get what life was like for people like him. "How would you feel if New York was full of immigrants?" 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I haven't seen systematic polling about how rural and even some suburban Americans view life in big metropolitan areas. But my guess is that you'd find some remarkable misconceptions 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

One reason is that people live in bubbles. After 2016 there was endless reporting on how urban types don't understand the lives of guys in diners. But there's equal if not greater absence of comprehension going the other way. 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

As Pew had documented, we went through a quarter-century of rapidly falling crime — and all the way through, people declared that crime was rising 3/ https://t.co/OC0azyLqsy — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The political question of the day is whether Trump can win politically by hammering on a nonexistent crisis of order in America's cities. You would think not, but I'm not 100% confident 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I went for a belated NYC run this morning, and am sorry to report that I saw very few black-clad anarchists. Also, the city is not yet in flames 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

We'll get official #s Friday, and then one more job report before the election. I suspect that the net effect is that the economy per se won't matter much politically: Trump will claim super-V just around the corner, Dems point out that things are still terrible 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Reverse square root picture 2/ https://t.co/j6N3lC5oAp — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

ADP (unofficial private payroll estimate) has had a bad track record lately, but this latest looks like a lot of other data suggesting a reverse-square-root recovery: rapid gains for a couple of months, much slower since 1/ https://t.co/2ZLFrZGpdE — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And of course that's a good description of the tech giants whose stocks have soared most. So a good guess is that at least part of what's going on is that long-term pessimism has reduced interest rates, and this has *increased* the value of stocks issued by monopolists 7/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But this assumes that profits are a return to physical capital — which in some industries they are. But what if they're largely rents reflecting some kind of monopoly position? Then lower interest rates won't lead to investment that reduces these rents. 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Instead, the argument is that higher valuations relative to the replacement cost of capital will induce investment, which drives returns down over time. And markets will supposedly take those future effects into account, limiting the initial rise 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Now, traditionally we would expect the effect of low alternative yields on stock valuations to be dampened. Why? Tobin's q, which has nothing to do either with conspiracy theories or with this guy 4/ https://t.co/8B0F83KVoc — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

This interest plunge, incidentally, basically reflects long-term economic pessimism. So in a perverse way strong stocks may in part result from *bad* economic prospects 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

One key point for making (some) sense of stocks is the question, where else are you going to put your money? Interest rates, especially on inflation-protected bonds, have plunged 2/ https://t.co/oVXI6v05K8 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

There are few things less important for the future of America right now than the stock market. But the disconnect between rising stocks and everything else is still interesting. So a few notes 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Trump claims to know about a plane full of thugs all dressed in black. What he doesn't know is that they were the Elders of Zion, in full Hasidic gear. Also, the president of the United States has lost his mind https://t.co/qn3lUMRSKZ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @nytopinion: The Republican National Convention may have pretended that the pandemic was over, but the virus doesn’t agree, writes @Paul… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @BFriedmanDC: New @MilitaryTimes survey of active duty troops has absolutely devastating numbers for @realDonaldTrump. The Republican Pa… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

2 million dead? Scott Atlas shrugged — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The one strategy Trump never seems to have considered is that of taking the pandemic seriously and trying to save American lives https://t.co/TPgOs3wrPt — PolitiTweet.org