Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

After a lull, the international conference circuit, now virtual, has also picked up. Something is lost in doing them online, but not doing those 4-day trips to Asia is a big plus 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I'm now doing weekly quarantine briefings, much more informal. But in particular people who liked the MasterClass might want to check in 2/ https://t.co/svcuYWKriz — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

A bit of self-promotion: almost two years ago I taped an online "MasterClass"; I hadn't heard much from them since, and assumed it wasn't doing well. But I was wrong! Lots of people watching it, and the royalties are coming in 1/ https://t.co/qdVKLln4qy — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @nytopinion: "A million jobs gained is better than a million jobs lost," writes @paulkrugman. "But there is often a disconnect between t… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Wasn't the economy supposed to be Trump's big advantage, however unjustified? If it's a wash, what does he have to run on? https://t.co/cXjEmyAmjX — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Not actually my implication. I actually think it's problematic for everyone that the last official snapshot we'll have of the job market will be from 2nd week in September, when lots of stuff, good or bad, can and probably will happen between then and the election. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Like I said, not enough coffee. In reality, I don't think October is going to be a great month for jobs. But in any case we won't have official numbers pre-election. "September" — which is actually *this coming week* — will be the last official word — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

@DeanBaker13 I read it wrong. Last year's schedule. So next report will be the last pre-election — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

@ernietedeschi You're right. Read the release schedule with too little coffee in my bloodstream, and didn't realize it was for last year. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Yes, I got it wrong. Reading last year's release schedule. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Ernie Tedeschi corrects me. I accidentally called up last year's schedule. This means that the next report will be the last one pre-election. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Hmm. This is unusual. BLS usually releases employment reports on the first Friday of each month. But it will release the October report on Sunday Nov. 1. I guess that's being dictated by the election. https://t.co/mPUfL3dMbJ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

For those not getting the reference — and yes, it was mainly storms that did the damage in 1588 2/ https://t.co/M5N39gYjMR — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Omigod, it really is like the Spanish Armada 1/ https://t.co/c0YiX0Pojm — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Biden is talking to the right people. That's actually a pretty big deal. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The political implication is that the economy won't save Trump. I don't know whether it will be a net negative or a net positive, but any effect will be swamped by other things — Covid, race relations. Oh, and whatever October surprise he tries and whether it backfires 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And the one report remaining will probably (not certainly) be weaker 3/ https://t.co/qA12hWx6O1 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

This matters, because Friday's report was a glass half full/glass half empty story; some good numbers (although that plunge in unemployment was implausible) but enough troubling numbers to cast shadows 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

In an otherwise excellent article, Philip Bump makes one small error: there is only one more job report before the election, not two (the report for October will be released Nov. 6) 1/ https://t.co/IZD73paqJv — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Given these reports, isn't it a bit puzzling that Trump shows so much affection for Confederate generals? After all, they were losers — literally https://t.co/vyAM5fVtB5 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

We may get some clarity next month — which will be the last report before the election. The next rpt will also show some effects of benefit cuts. But right now this looks like an economy slowly clawing its way back but still a long way from recovery. 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

When economic data don't seem to match the story you're getting from other sources, the odds are higher that the data are for whatever reason misleading. Important: you DON'T want to say that because you don't like what the data say. That's not the point 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But there was a big fall in the unemployment rate. How is that possible? Well, it's a different survey — one of households. And it's generally considered less reliable; maybe especially so now, with Covid depressing response rates 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And this number, by the way, was pretty much consistent with what other indicators, from credit card data to the Beige Book, were saying: growing, but rapid snapback is over 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

To be more precise, the payroll number, based on a survey of employers, was meh. ~1 million jobs when you take out the temporary census hiring, which would be great in a normal economy but not when you're still 11 million down from Feb. 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I was out of the loop when the employment report came out, so a belated take: overall, given where we are, it was "meh." 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Violence mainly comes from right-wing groups and police overreaction; property damage has been confined to small areas. The real anarchy is in the right-wing mind 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And here's a quantification. The vast majority of demonstrations have been peaceful 2/ https://t.co/fJMIsjfCuV — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I write about the disconnect between Trump's fantasy of urban hellscapes overrun by anarchists and the much less troubled reality 1/ https://t.co/d9lWMUJ9Gv — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @nytopinion: There isn’t a wave of violence other than that unleashed by Trump himself, @PaulKrugman writes. "But can voters be swayed b… — PolitiTweet.org