Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Jason's original calc relied only on Zillow, which has lagged the other measures in finding drastic disinflation in rents. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Killjoys. The other day a sign on 295 said "Get your head out of your apps" https://t.co/LbR6sEjv8Y — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

What I think we can say is that measured inflation seems highly likely to fall considerably. Going to enjoy watching Rs claim that they deserve credit, because of their policy of ... investigating Hunter Biden 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Plus the narrower the index, the more it can be swayed by idiosyncratic stuff, like how you measure health insurance costs. And by the way, if true shelter inflation can surge and plunge the way it has, what is "core" anyway? 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Some people looking at inflation ex food, energy and shelter. But I've grown reluctant to look at indexes that exclude more and more stuff. Much risk of motivated reasoning — results can depend on exactly what you exclude 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Want to come back to this. Far too soon to declare victory over inflation. But good reason to believe that inflation will come down significantly even if there isn't a recession, as market rents get reflected in official shelter costs 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And I have a Mastodon site ready to roll 2/ https://t.co/ybVhwQfUJ4 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Again, if this site gets Musked into oblivion, you can find my columns and newsletters here 1/ https://t.co/uRW4KSfCMq — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @nytopinion: When crypto entrepreneurs, who are unregulated, “offer exceptionally good deals, investors must believe not just in their c… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

OK, if Twitter dies soon — suddenly looking like a real possibility — I do have a Mastodon account here https://t.co/ybVhwQfUJ4 And columns and newsletters can be found here https://t.co/LdPlUFybUk — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Actually not, especially when compared with wages. Avg price ratio to ordinary workers' wages, normalized to Sept. 2022: 2/ https://t.co/pQOdhVtFNz — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Catching up on Trump's speech — and noticing that they can't quit gas prices, even though they're not under policy control and have fallen a lot. "Gas prices have reached their highest level in history" 1/ https://t.co/fFIexsOPvr — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Thanks Jason! Was hoping someone would do this calculation, rather than having to do it myself. The obvious implication is that persistent inflation may be a data artifact, that the economy isn't all that overheated after all. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Biden's landmark climate legislation wasn't a major campaign issue, which is very good news https://t.co/EhMNSsroE8 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @nytopinion: Columnist @PaulKrugman responded to readers commenting on "Trump Is Weak, but the G.O.P. Is Weaker." Read their exchanges h… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Zillow is smoothed and seasonally adjusted, so this does say that rental inflation has fallen off a cliff. Will take months to show up in BLS shelter index, but core inflation is set for a major decline — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Happy William Tecumseh Sherman Day! The march to the sea began 158 years ago today. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Subtweeting aside, Warren offers a pretty clear agenda for the lame-duck. Will her party go along? — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So shouldn't the hard right turn of rural areas, where Rs now win by 50 or 60 point margins, create a similar effect? Is this just too small an issue to count, or am I missing something about the math? 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

As I understood it, the traditional pattern, while partly about gerrymandering, was also about racial geography: high concentration of Black voters in urban areas, where many of their votes were "wasted" in D supermajorities, while Rs won elsewhere with narrower majorities 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

OK, question for voting mavens. It seems the traditional R structural advantage, in which the GOP can take the House with a minority of the popular vote, has vanished. But why? Nate Cohn had an enlightening discussion, but I want more on one issue 1/ https://t.co/bB9CeaBuVh — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And no, it's not about freedom. We're not talking about lockdowns and restrictions at this point, just about lifesaving shots that DeSantis deterred people from getting. Truly awesome 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Why didn't DeSantis pay a price for this? Because Covid victims die out of the public eye, offscreen as it were. A resident of Florida is ~20X as likely to die gratuitously from Covid as a resident of NY is to be murdered, but crime makes headlines while other deaths don't 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Adjusted for population, the Florida-equivalent death toll was FL 59,170 CA 39,217 NY 39,551 So states that didn't have governors promoting Covid disinformation and anti-tax propaganda lost far fewer people — the equivalent of ~20K excess in FL 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

By state, deaths since then are FL 59,170 CA 70,565 NY 35,247 But CA has a much larger population than FL, NY a slightly smaller one. 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Here's how I get that number. Compare Covid deaths by state since Jan. 1, 2021 — roughly when vaccines became widely available. (2020 comparisons distorted by early carnage in New York areas when we didn't know it was airborne) 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Can Ron DeSantis effectively challenge Trump? I have no idea. But one thing I hope doesn't get forgotten in the horse-race coverage is DeSantis's major achievement as governor: the unnecessary death of around 20,000 Floridians 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Generic diagram 3/ https://t.co/4x7eXsYmX8 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

In other words more like a checklist than a model 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

It often feels to me like some of the business strategy literature, where you talk about how lots of things affect lots of other things, and congratulate yourself on how arrows you can draw connecting how many boxes 1/ — PolitiTweet.org