Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Trump/Woodward: the initial reaction of the news media was weirdly muted. Blame the instinct to be "savvy": this stuff won't move the opinions of guys in diners, so it's not newsworthy, right? It's seeming as if it took around 24 hours for the outrage to kick in 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Of course, now I'm afraid that the movie won't live up to the expectations raised by that trailer. But I will not fear. Fear is the mind-killer; it is the little death that brings total oblivion. I will let my fear pass over and through me 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Previous efforts failed, if you ask me, because they condescended to the audience, figuring that the book was too subtle. It looks as if this adaptation didn't make that mistake, and everything looks the way I imagined it 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Reread the book last year, and it really is as good as I remembered. (I notice from the trailer that the Fremen "jihad" seems to have been renamed "crusade," but I get it). And the trailer looks and feels as if they got it right. 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

As a teenager, I was a total Dune fanatic; my friends and I used to have mock knife fights where the killing blow had to be delivered slowly to get through the other guy's personal shield, which means a lot if you've read the book 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Today's political revelations leave me almost speechless — and also in desperate need of distraction. So may I point out that the newly released trailer for Dune looks totally awesome? 1/ https://t.co/CmXciCx9lu — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

No matter how numbed we've become, the shocks keep coming. We need a term for a president who, for his personal convenience, deliberately misleads his nation in ways that cause tens of thousands to die. A mass manslaughterer? — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @GC_CUNY: Announcing a new online event series, CHANGE – register now for September programs: https://t.co/pL2Y9Z6DCe Feat. Ruth Wilson… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

What caused boats in the Trump Armada to sink? Trumpists immediately went all conspiracy theory; most reasonable people assumed that it was wind gusts. But it turns out to have been ... stupidity https://t.co/zGKrcbdWkM — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Having a bit of a dotcom flashback. But the usual three principles apply: 1. The stock market is not the economy 2. The stock market is not the economy 3. The stock market is not the economy https://t.co/jSayGR9Xgv — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @nytopinion: The simple fact is that over the past few weeks the lives of many Americans have gotten much worse, writes @PaulKrugman htt… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Anyway, hard times to model — but much better to try modeling than just go with your prejudices 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But then there's the overarching fact that Trump approval is highly resistant to events. Disapproval only dropped below 50 for a few days when he seemed to be taking Covid-19 seriously 4/ https://t.co/aMaGMzfxhv — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But then there's the overarching fact that Trump approval seems remarkably unaffected by events. Trump has been underwater all the way, with disapproval only dipping below 50 briefly during the few days when he seemed to be taking Covid-19 seriously 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

One thought, which I'm sure Morris and Silver have both had: the original Hibbs "fundamentals" model was "bread and peace", giving a substantial role to war casualties as well as growth. Isn't the coronavirus kind of like a war? 3/ https://t.co/eQaMIUOxWV — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

There has never been an election with this much discrepancy between economic performance over the prior year and the very short-term growth rate. My sense is that voters aren't buying the notion that Trump has made America great again again, but what do I know? 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Still noodling around on economics and the election. To give you an idea of how weird this year is, here's annual growth rates to the 2nd quarter v 3rd quarter growth in the past 9 elections (2020 # is an average of "nowcasts") 1/ https://t.co/GDm0pg5ojD — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And we're slashing investment in the future at a time when real borrowing costs are negative — basically, savers are begging the government to put their money to some productive use. In short, what's about to happen is stupid as well as cruel 5/ https://t.co/tIoWRdBhoW — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So think of the coming cuts as involving savage reductions in investment in the future: we'll have worse nourished, less healthy, worse educated children, who will become less productive adults, plus worse roads and other social capital 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

What, after all, do state/local governments spend on? Around 40% is education or infrastructure; a substantial part of the rest is spending on children 3/ https://t.co/HcxrDEH1HF — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Many people, including Fed officials, have emphasized the point that state/local austerity will delay recovery, the way it did in 2010-15. But the business cycle isn't the only issue. We're also gratuitously damaging our future 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

At this point, it seems a virtual certainty that Republicans will refuse to provide any significant aid to fiscally desperate state and local governments. And it's worth thinking about just how much folly that involves 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

PS: I didn’t do the MasterClass to make money, although that’s ok. I did it bc Helen Mirren did one, and anything good enough for her is good enough for me — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I should add that I hugely admire the effort. Especially compared with the empty gasbaggery that proliferates around elections — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Obv you’re working this hard. Props. But the worst slump in history followed by the fastest one-quarter growth ever is so far out of sample that God knows what it means — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I guess the point is that the economic fundamentals are weird; applying what one of my teachers called the principle of insignificant reason, a reasonable guess is that they will hardly matter at all 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I don't think history offers any answer, because nothing like this has ever happened. Or will voters judge Trump by the way things were in January? Seems unlikely, but what do I know? 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So we have an economy that experienced an unprecedented plunge early this year, and a bounceback that will still leave it far below January levels on Election Day. Is that good or bad for the incumbent? 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Or more precisely, over what time horizon? There's a pretty clear consensus that what matters is recent growth, not absolute level. But how recent is "recent"? That never used to matter much, but now we're living on Covid time 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So, I've been following the modeling wars between @gelliottmorris and @NateSilver538 with interest; I have no dog in this fight. But one thought: at least part of the disagreement has to do with the role of economic fundamentals. And my question is, *which* fundamentals 1/ — PolitiTweet.org