Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So if you're shocked by what's happening now, you just weren't paying attention. Denial of reality has been central to modern conservatism for a long time 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And before that it was a party that embraced the notion that climate change was a hoax perpetrated by a vast global scientific cabal 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

If you're shocked that only 1 in 10 Congressional Republicans is willing to accept the election results, bear in mind that this is a party that dismissed mass deaths from Covid-19 as fake news 1/ https://t.co/GPUS7I8j6A — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And let's not forget this https://t.co/PVsS4NqXPj — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

For some reason I haven't seen many people noting that we've passed a milestone — 7 day average Covid deaths, more meaningful than daily rates, have now passed their April peak. So much for claims that we were just testing more https://t.co/ZuClVtkUMZ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The moral here is that if Democrats take those Senate seats in GA, Biden should go ahead and spend on his priorities, ignoring deficit scolds. In the economy we have now, deficits are good 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So what did go right? As I've been saying, inadvertent and unadmitted Keynesianism: big increase in cyclically adjusted deficits, driving demand 3/ https://t.co/NfXyna5OoH — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And here's trade: 2/ https://t.co/t89pHGWutS — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The paradox of the Trump economy: the economy did pretty well even though his two main policy initiatives — cutting taxes on corporations to encourage investment and tariffs to reduce trade deficits — were busts. Here's business investment: 1/ https://t.co/8LZE9Cx76F — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Gov. Murphy of NJ is not being polite to people who willfully endanger others. You got a problem with that? https://t.co/hA1cmTmsLr — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So there's a lot of communicating and persuasion to be done. I wonder if any of Biden's economic advisers understand all of this? Oh, wait 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Unfortunately, aside from GOP sabotage, I don't think enough policy-adjacent people get this. I've been getting the same impression of failure to comprehend that, it seems, Jason Furman is getting 2/ https://t.co/NRhNMt1JQe — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I'd say it's a combination of slow growth in working-age pop and lack of investment-driving new technology, but it doesn't matter that much; the point, as you say, is that we're awash in excess savings, and resources aren't scarce 1/ https://t.co/LmDKtg5tNy — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

This tells you part of the stakes in the GA runoffs: if Rs hold the Senate, they will try to reverse this stimulus to cripple the Biden economy 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The federal govt was providing roughly as much stimulus in 2019, with 4% unemployment, as in 2012, with 8% unemployment. The stimulus was badly designed — in particular, corporate tax cuts didn't boost investment. But still 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Looking back at the Trump economy, what's striking is how Keynesian policy was in practice. Look at the cyclically adjusted budget deficit, a rough measure of fiscal stimulus 1/ https://t.co/dqrhTBtPHd https://t.co/bySyKp2f80 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The truly terrifying thing is that millions of people think that Trump was a great president, and that zombie Hugo Chavez stole his much-deserved reelection 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Meanwhile, the virus was supposed to go away; instead, 200,000 more people have died, with high likelihood that another 100,000 or more will die before Trump leaves office 3/ https://t.co/kPt2Lb6SSB — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

This was supposed to lead to rapid economic recovery; in fact, after a few months the recovery slowed and has now effectively stalled, with the US still ~10 million jobs down 2/ https://t.co/BDYF6ieNiT — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So, I was too busy to comment on the jobs numbers this AM. But let's step back: you should see where we are in the context of Trump's decision, back in April, to stop fighting the virus and in fact bully states into relaxing restrictions 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @nytopinion: . @PaulKrugman responded to readers commenting on his column "Learn to Stop Worrying and Love Debt." Join the conversation… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Oh, and since someone will surely bring it up, none of this has anything to do with MMT; it's pure mainstream analysis, but reflecting the reality of low interest rates 10/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

As I see it, at this point alarming long-run projections involve an element of unintentional bait-and-switch. They look as if they're being driven by the unsustainability of entitlement programs, but they're actually reflecting dubious assumptions about interest rates 9/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Without the assumed rise in rates, projected deficits would be much lower, debt considerably lower, and real interest payments much lower than CBO projects. The long-run budget outlook wouldn't look especially scary 8/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Well, it's all about interest rates, which CBO assumes will rise back to mid-2000s levels. Obviously this could be true — predictions are hard, especially about the future. But not clear why we should believe this 7/ https://t.co/mREhtsPPQr — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And it's not mainly bc of rising debt: CBO projects debt/GDP doubling, but interest/GDP rising by a factor of 5. Why? 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Actually, though, the biggest component is a huge assumed rise in interest costs 5/ https://t.co/b82Hv8VSYr — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

CBO projects a big rise in spending as % of GDP, and if you don't look under the hood you might well assume that this is driven by fundamentals, especially the aging population 4/ https://t.co/sCECy9RjhQ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But while I respect CBO's integrity, those long-run debt projections are much more questionable than people probably realize. Realistic projections, I (and many sensible economists) argue, are much less alarming 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Now, many people will surely start waving around frightening-looking projections, like those of the CBO 2/ https://t.co/J2XjDKa90L — PolitiTweet.org