Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

A very wonkish and probably too long thread on inflation. Not predictions, but to talk about my sense that we (myself included) have been working with the wrong model given the current situation 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The experience with this site is deteriorating by the day. I am now on both Mastodon and Post: https://t.co/ybVhwQxvAC and https://t.co/6g0BRQxUye. Triple-posting will be a pain, but will try for a while at least. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Getting more and more promoted tweets, obviously a desperate attempt to increase revenue. But ludicrously badly targeted. Not just celebrity obsessed, but celebrities I’ve never heard of — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Meanwhile, gas prices down over the year. Remember when "$5 gas" was the main R talking point? The thing is, if inflation does come under control without a severe recession, Biden econ policy will look very good in retrospect 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Now, I'm not personally confident in that view; oddly, Wall Street economists are at this point more firmly Team Transitory than I am. Worried about wages, although open to arguments that worry is overstated. 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Odd that I'm seeing almost no commentary on this AM's PPI report. More or less in line with expectations, but core consistent with view that the inflation surge is mostly behind us 1/ https://t.co/SFwTFawcTc — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

In general, I'm coming to the conclusion that we — me too — have been way too quick to jump into data interpretation without thinking enough about wage and price dynamics in the face of disruptions. This time really is different 8/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

A further point: rapid slowdown in rent shows that fast rise in recent past was NOT an expectations-driven surge, in fact suggests inflation expectations still anchored 7/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Compare Zillow with BLS shelter and you see rents rapidly becoming a source of DISinflation. At a guess wages not there yet. But maybe coming? 6/ https://t.co/eWTd77AX2j — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The Indeed data from Nick Bunker is yoy growth; would be very curious to see 3-month nos if they can seasonally adjust. We know that the rent numbers are really striking 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Something similar although less drastic may be happening with wages: averages rising bc of a hot market some months ago, new wage deals up at a more moderate pace 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

At this point many observers are aware that rising official shelter prices largely reflect a surge in rents last year, largely driven (we think) by work from home. Recent market rent inflation is low, maybe even negative 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

In both cases, average market prices lag well behind new contracts: many apartments are leased and workers hired for a year, so market conditions take a while to show up in average measures 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

This is very interesting and reminds me to post something about an issue that's been on my mind: parallels between shelter and wage inflation 1/ https://t.co/53i5ClLq5A — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

FYI: I'm honoring the virtual picket line and not filing for the Times today — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

You know, if that last downward leg had happened a few weeks earlier, Ds would still control the House https://t.co/dKAEo15lsN — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And the ads are, in general, ludicrously badly targeted. No, I'm not interested in the real-life partners of actors I've never heard of 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Until about 2 days ago I didn't find the deterioration of this site very visible. I use the "latest tweets" view, which has basically meant only seeing the limited number of people I follow (and I rarely read replies). But now my timeline is filling up with ads 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @henryfarrell: Hemlock? https://t.co/80KYSNWfFi — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I'm in a room full of men in suits saying that today's wage print means higher inflation and interest rates. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury. ???? https://t.co/W8p217Rxd7 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Global Entry already uses facial recognition — you don't even scan your passport. Convenient but spooky https://t.co/fB3u0kSx7u — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

For now, we have to go with inflation pessimism. But now eager to see next month and — almost 2 months from now! — the ECI 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Some buzz to the effect that the data were distorted by a reduction in hours. I have absolutely no idea how seriously to take this. But when one month's data release upends what you thought was happening, probably a good idea to kick the tires 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Shocked by the comments here — I expected much more crypto bro outrage. Maybe this era really is ending https://t.co/wjEDv7JQ58 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

When the data don't tell you what you want to hear, you have to listen. I was a lot more optimistic about near-term inflation at 8:29 this morning than I am now — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Next newsletter probably about inflation target. Here's something I wrote early this year including new thoughts about the downside of raising the target https://t.co/yYTZlqfe6t — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Unbelievable, except not. Nobody is US politics is as delusional as "centrists" who refuse to believe that the GOP has become the radical party it is — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Omg. In case this happens to me, I'm also at https://t.co/ybVhwQfUJ4 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

One problem I had with Powell's speech yesterday was that all the charts were YoY, which probably miss much of the disinflationary news of recent months 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Specifically San Francisco and New York, which are ~30% of US pop and >40% of GDP. Overall, labor tightness seems to be easing 2/ — PolitiTweet.org