Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So sending most people $2K checks isn't great policy, but it's not a "big mistake". And it's politically popular, so it makes sense for Dems to highlight R refusal to do it 10/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

In a secstag economy you actually want the government pushing up demand with deficit spending, even when there isn't a crisis. Better if that spending takes the form of public investment, but as with extended UI, that's not on the table right now 9/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Wait, there's more. While I'm optimistic for the 2nd half of 2021, there's good reason to believe that the economy was suffering from persistent weakness of demand pre-pandemic. It's called secular stagnation, an idea pushed by ... Larry Summers. 8/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And everything we've seen over the past 20 years says that the short-run Phillips curve is pretty flat — that is, low unemployment pushes inflation up very slowly. So the inflation risks if the economy runs somewhat hot for a year are small 7/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Increasing the checks from $600 to 2K would be a fiscal stimulus of <2% of GDP — and a fairly low-multiplier stimulus, bc many will save their checks. So yes, it might give an already high-employment economy extra fuel, but not that much 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Larry appears to be worried that across-the-board checks will overheat the economy, leading to inflation. Again, I agree that the economy is likely to recover fast once there's a vaccine, so that demand-side stimulus won't be crucial. But inflationary pressure? Not a worry 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Maybe Ds should have fought harder for more weeks of UI, but I don't see the harm in borrowing some more money at negative real interest rates; at least some of it will go to people who need it 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

LS should always be listened to, but I think he's wrong here. I agree that across-the-board checks are not an ideal policy — much better to extend enhanced unemployment benefits until the economy recovers — but that's not politically on the table 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

One is whether $2K for most Americans is a good idea. Even some Democrats, notably Larry Summers, don't think so 2/ https://t.co/EWmGiQJt3G — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Why has Trump apparently blown up the economic relief deal? I don't care, and neither should anyone else. In 24 days we can stop worrying about this terrible person's motives, and focus on the GOP backed him all the way. But there are more interesting questions 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Notice that it's not just Trump. Rs could either override or accept 2K. (Stripping foreign aid would be disastrous policy) Ds are being responsible, Rs not. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

John Cheever on destruction of the old Penn Station: “Through Pennsylvania Station one entered the city like a god. Perhaps it was really too much. One scuttles in now like a rat.” Finally undoing some of the damage. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Republicans will do anything for Trump, but they won't do that — where "that" means anything that's actually populist https://t.co/n5jhJy6pI2 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Maybe it's just me, but my sense is that everyone involved has basically made a dreariness and called it peace 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I'd feel better about this if I thought Britain would use its freedom of action wisely, which it won't; I'd feel worse about it if the EU were living up to its promise of building a solidly democratic Europe, which it isn't 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Long run Britain will be a few percent poorer than it would otherwise have been. But it won't be all that obvious, probably lost in the statistical noise. In return, Britain will get some ability to make its own rules on immigration etc 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Wrong to be apocalyptic here: traffic flows pretty smoothly at the border between the US and Canada, even though we only have a free trade area. But there will be some costs — probably highest in the next few months, when business is still adjusting 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

This is better than no deal, although tariffs were never the important issue; the serious costs of Brexit were always going to come from red tape and border checks, which are impossible to avoid unless you have a full customs union 2/ https://t.co/JHt1bvwgB5 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

OK, so we're apparently getting more or less a UK-EU free trade area for goods, although service trade will de facto face new protective barriers 1/ https://t.co/U0rZ7flx7G — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Also, btw, he was notable as an American economist who actually thought globally — that is, was willing to learn from experiences abroad — at a time when the US profession was pretty insular 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The methodology — quantitatively comparing events in multiple instances across time and space — has become a fundamental tool for understanding things like financial crises 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Oh my. Cooper was a fine scholar and policymaker; I remember in particular his seminal paper on devaluations 1/ https://t.co/6IBidD3ALA — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Politicians who demagogue foreign aid are contemptible, even when they aren’t denouncing their own leader’s proposals. It’s always a cynical attempt to exploit ignorance and xenophobia — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I didn’t see much backlash until Biden won. Aggressive Fed only bad with a D in WH — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The real Kraken, released https://t.co/7EgA88oezw — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

What I’ve been saying for a while. The unemployed desperately need aid now, but spending by the affluent will drive fast recovery once vaccination is widespread — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Aha. I've been thinking about how the move to work-at-home is in a way restoring the putting-out manufacturing that was replaced by factories in the Industrial Revolution. These authors have more detail https://t.co/Y0KjKEn0sh — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Except that when poor people buy groceries with food stamps they don't also spread a deadly virus. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

To be honest, it's kind of a relief to be criticizing bad analysis rather than raw, malevolent dishonesty. And I don't blame Ds for going with the flow. But this really isn't the right answer to our current situation 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But couldn't you say the same thing about Universal Basic Income? Indeed you could. The math on UBI has never made sense. Either it won't be enough to live on or it will be impossibly expensive. Unfortunately, it sounds good and has hijacked energy better spent elsewhere 5/ — PolitiTweet.org