Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

https://t.co/ZOzWGKBmbl — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

If you're of a certain (advanced) age, "supercore" makes you think of childhood TV 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Also really useful , but ... 2/ https://t.co/Aqcyrh1qVT — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Jason is doing an excellent service here. How I sort-of think about it too 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

It's almost as if the 2021-2 inflation surge was tr-tr-tr ... something that ends with "tory". 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

A month is only a month, and still better to focus on 3-month rates of inflation. But if you bear in mind the lagged effect of rent disinflation, this sure looks like underlying inflation under 4. 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Clearly, Biden's people saw this coming, hence the shot across the WTO's bow 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Sure enough, China is asking the WTO to rule against US national security restrictions on semiconductors 2/ https://t.co/lqILVP5NIq — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I wrote about the Biden administration's tough line on trade — and its blowing off of the WTO 1/ https://t.co/uS6xXfHWPT — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And worth noting that the most salient price, gasoline, is way down. So very little reason to believe that an inflation spiral is looming any time soon 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Surveys of inflation expectations aren't the most reliable indicators, since normal people don't really think in terms of a number. But for what it's worth, no sign of expectations losing their anchor 1/ https://t.co/vzjzOxS5lb — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Is the CHIPS Act the Children's Health Insurance Program or Creating Helpful Incentives for Production of Semiconductors ? Is the BIS the Bank for International Settlements, trying to stabilize world finance, or the Bureau of Industry and Security, trying to hobble China? 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Doing some background research on trade issues, but also having worked in other areas, I've discovered a looming crisis: we appear to be running out of acronyms. 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Some irony here: crazies on the right accuse Biden admin of being "globalists", but they're playing much harder hardball than previous admins 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Probably also related to the nationalist aspects of Biden climate policy, which were necessary for domestic politics; but they may invoke security if challenged by the WTO 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I assume that this is less about the substance of those particular tariffs than about principle. Biden is taking a much more aggressive stance toward China than most people realize 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Underreported story (more about it tomorrow). The WTO said Trump national security tariffs were illegitimate; the Biden administration (!) told the WTO to stuff it 1/ https://t.co/itVREn2akg — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The fact that there's still an FTX arena is the cherry on top 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Crypto has always been a combination of technobabble and libertarian derp. But the sheer scope of the scam continues to amaze 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Republicans have long insisted that governments shouldn't try to pick winners. So I guess they've decided to pick losers instead 1/ https://t.co/8rEY9LshxL — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Do we know that this is right? No. But rethinking along these lines looks to me like a better approach than trying to keep adjusting the core inflation Phillips curve to fit awkward data 11/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

That's pretty much what has happened — after they wrote this, so it counts as a successful prediction. And it suggests that the worsened unemployment-inflation tradeoff won't persist 10/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

What a model along these lines would predict is a jump in overall prices, with very high but temporary inflation in some sectors. Also a lot of churn as labor reallocated to expanding sectors 9/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Guerrieri et al basically assume a big shift in the composition of demand, plus sluggish reallocation and downward wage and maybe price rigidity. They worried a lot about optimal policy, but just focus on description 8/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So what if an aggregative Phillips curve is all wrong for the pandemic era? I was trying to think through a model, and realized that it had already been largely written 7/ https://t.co/7sNu3n9YZI https://t.co/Exr38aobD7 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Another anomaly: huge but temporary inflation surges in sectors usually included in core inflation, notably housing rents 6/ https://t.co/o0yipELiyo — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The deviations could reflect a surge in expected inflation — but there's no evidence of that happening. Or it could reflect a mysterious deterioration in the Beveridge curve. As I said, epicycles 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Here's what happened to a wage Phillips curve using ECI wages and salaries. The line is the fitted slope 2000-2020Q1; the red dots 2021-2022 (skipping the height of the pandemic disruption) 4/ https://t.co/lnsZWi8Crj — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But it feels more and more like Ptolemaic astronomy, relying on a growing number of epicycles to deal with the anomalies. Two examples of what I mean: 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Most policy-oriented macro ppl entered the pandemic using what we might call a core inflation Phillips curve — inflation depending on slack, but with volatile stuff carved out. And we're still trying to fit events into that framework 2/ — PolitiTweet.org