Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And that recruiting people from as wide a pool as possible, and with the promise of decent treatment, is going to work better than brutalizing and hazing. But admitting that would undermine the whole RW world view 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

You don't have to be a military expert to see that while courage and endurance are as important as ever, a modern military also needs smart people who can act on their own initiative 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Even now you see people saying "a woke military is a weak military" — in the face of the definitely anti-woke Russian army's string of disasters . And how many times has Tucker Carlson declared that Russia is winning? 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Before Putin's war, lots of people on the right, from Ted Cruz on down, idolized bicep-flexing Russians who were supposed to be much tougher than our supposedly pampered service members 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Good roundup of the anti-Zelensky right, but I think it misses one additional point: the importance of the musclebound, thuggish Russian soldier in right-wing iconography 1/ https://t.co/XC1012RadA — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And here's dollars (both from IMF) 2/ https://t.co/I3MfL1113B — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Doing some work on China, and putting up for reference some US-China GDP comparisons. Here's PPP 1/ https://t.co/OzIUqSyU71 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

As 2022 winds down, everyone knows that the economy is in terrible shape — everyone except the public, according to the Conference Board Survey https://t.co/54OQWUa2g6 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @nytopinion: “I’m not shocked by the spectacle of Elon Musk’s reputational self-immolation. Fascinated, yes; who isn’t?” writes @paulkru… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

This is not the dystopia we were expecting https://t.co/8PIF2nNa9y — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

FYI https://t.co/AWEyyG3ZeG — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

More in forthcoming newsletter 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Definitions: Traditional Median Trimmed mean Supercore (traditional ex shelter) Superdupercore (super also ex used cars) Furman core (use market rents for shelter) 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Reupping this: current measures of core inflation tell you whatever you want to hear. 3-month rates annualized 1/ https://t.co/Vr3CnrlPlA — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Retweets still work. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So Twitter really is blocking Mastodon links — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @marie_donigan: @charles_gaba in the news! https://t.co/7TW5pE2gPN — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Trump was always both evil and clownish. But has he finally made the transition from scary evil clown to pathetic evil clown? PS: I'm cross-posting almost everything at https://t.co/ybVhwQfUJ4 because there are other evil clowns at large ... — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Here's what I get (using Zillow in place of BLS shelter) https://t.co/NqOFi4Zcm0 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

A quick note about "core" inflation. I'm aware of at least 6 measures: Traditional Median Trimmed mean Supercore (traditional ex shelter) Superdupercore (super also ex used cars) Furman core (use market rents for shelter) They all tell different stories! — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Yes. Or use market rents instead of BLS. But even "supercore" excluding shelter is running at 3.6% over past 3 months if you also exclude used cars. Still curb our enthusiasm time, although dire Volcker scenarios look ever less likely — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But if inflation isn't entrenched — and probably won't be, given low headline rates — isn't it likely that cooling demand will bring inflation down fast? 8/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Alternative notion of "underlying" is inflation caused by general excess demand rather than temporary disruptions. Wage data and most core measures show some of that 7/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

... one-year expectations elevated, but that's just lagged gas prices; medium-term not at all, and no sign future inflation seeping into price and wage setting 6/ https://t.co/7qVUF02P02 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Standard macro says that inflation can be self-perpetuating — that is, persist even in the face of above-normal unemployment — if entrenched in expectations. But ... 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

More substantively: many people trying to estimate "underlying" inflation. But less clarity about what that means, and this matters 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Maybe something similar on disinflation? Obv we don't know that, but past underprediction of inflation is no guarantee of future performance 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

That said, I find myself thinking about Dornbusch's Law — originally about currency crises: the crisis takes longer to arrive than you imagine, then happens faster than you imagine 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Thoughts about inflation. It should go without saying that we need to be cautious. Yesterday's good report came <2 weeks after a nasty negative shock on wages. Much too soon to celebrate 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @ChadBown: Even relatively internationalist policymakers, like officials in the Biden administration, aren’t sure about trade making the… — PolitiTweet.org