Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Always good to see smart people admit having been wrong, and analyzing why. Also good, though far less important, when they say that I was right https://t.co/hJ6Ri6d6SG https://t.co/HHZETPk9Ue — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Not to say that overheating is a non-concern. But why buy into doctrines that have failed again and again? Anyway, back to it: miles to go (around 40) before I sleep 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And huge emphasis on monetary aggregates, which have been totally useless at predicting inflation (Milton Friedman got this repeatedly wrong in the 1980s) 3/ https://t.co/r85PyBfJiO — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Intense hatred for the very idea of transitory inflation, which has been one of macro's greatest empirical triumphs, helping avoid repeated overreactions 2/ https://t.co/lAycDvyZB1 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Slow start today on bike trip, which has been a bit harder than my priors and very hard on my posterior — but I'm doing OK. Anyway, quick check on my inbox, which is full of inflation panic. Funny thing: most correspondents obsessed with one or both of 2 failed doctrines 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Decision made https://t.co/BcviZfUyWB — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Hi folks. I'm off on my first postpandemic bike trip this week. No columns or newsletters. I might tweet occasionally after a hard day's ride. Or I might just have a beer. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But markets do tell us about the views of people literally putting their money where their mouths are. And today's inflation hawks would be more credible if they had made some accounting of why they were so wrong back then. 5 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Now, markets aren't always right — that 2009 rise was basically a bet on a V-shaped recovery, which didn't happen. And economists who say markets are wrong — like those of us predicting a long slog back then — are sometimes right 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But it prompted pieces like this classic in the WSJ 3/ https://t.co/63asHKsmOB — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

There was in fact a rise in rates during early 2009 — driven by expectations of recovery that proved premature 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

This is especially remarkable if you remember 2009, when every uptick in rates was seen as proof that markets feared inflation/debt crisis. Not stated as opinion — reported as fact 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @nytopinion: Dumb nationalism is out, but uncritical globalism isn't back in, writes @PaulKrugman.  https://t.co/QL9pho9F0x — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @JWMason1: I am confident that if bond yields were going up, we'd see all kinds of stories about how this proves that an era of high in… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

There will be no bipartisan infrastructure deal; the GOP just doesn't build stuff https://t.co/cGBjeyC9Iu — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Really hope Jason is right. If he isn’t we’re withdrawing aid too fast — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But that means a long slog to make up the still huge job gap 10/ https://t.co/joc25noz4G — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Possible interpretation: *all* of the stories we're telling, including childcare, fear, you can take this job and shove it, and UI, may be marginal; there's just a natural speed limit 9/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But if we look at the vaccination recovery, it's kind of in line with the norm, 500-600K a month job gains 8/ https://t.co/WsW8FrWpKU — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Of course, you'll notice that I'm truncating pre-pandemic, when crazy things happened 7/ https://t.co/dxzLPy29Ah — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Change in employment-pop ratio also seems to have a ceiling 6/ https://t.co/3yTHLvFvzm — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

My version: nonfarm employment growth seems to have a max ~5%, which would be ~600K/month 5/ https://t.co/A7dZMt94KW — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Here's their key figure, showing similar rates of unemployment decline across many recoveries, regardless of how deep the previous recession 4/ https://t.co/AsU91497g7 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Link to paper 3/ https://t.co/qdrTVnczrn — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Their paper suggests — my interpretation — a sort of speed limit on employment growth due to job matching, unless we're recalling workers from temporary layoffs 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I wrote this the other day about job growth as we recover from the pandemic, and Peter Diamond suggested I look at some work by Hall and Kudlyak that passed me by 1/ https://t.co/8nKjwsFV4S — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Why people say "Gee" when they hear about the G7 https://t.co/XjY0GpkINo — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

For example https://t.co/ouDeoxEFEh — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But they’re all sold out — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Also note 180-degree change in philosophy from previous admin — from cutting taxes on corps in the hope that maybe they won't book everything in tax havens, to cracking down on the havens 3/ — PolitiTweet.org