Glenn Greenwald

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

@notTheViashino Why would that give me pause? US institutions hate right-wing populism. That's why the CIA invented Russiagate against Trump, while -- as TIME admitted -- most establishment forces were united behind Biden. Of course the Biden Admin prefers Lula to Bolsonaro. — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

@_TimBarker No. The impeachment of Dilma was largely driven by neoliberal and establishment forces (which is part of why I opposed it). The point was to replace her with her austerity-fixated Vice President, Michel Temer. But PT's governance was far from left-wing populism: more like US Dems — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

(Just to correct one point in this thread. At least 7 of Bolsonaro's Ministers were elected to Congress -- meaning either the House and Senate -- and not to the Senate as one of these tweets stated). — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

@tomgara I think both Trump's 2016 win and Brexit count as populist wins. And Trump -- with as many possible barriers as an incumbent could have -- came close in 2020. France and Macron are the best counter-examples, though you do see it there, too. But I agree Anglo world is more immune. — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

@samstreetwrites I absolutely think Tebet will endorse Lula (not sure how much it will matter in terms of what her voters do). Bigger question is what Ciro will do. I know him well, but I really have no idea what he'll do. — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

@tomgara That's reasonable and fair, but you could certainly argue that populism has become far more dominant in the GOP than Romney/McConnell-style establishment conservatism, and populism had a chance to do the same to Dems in 2016 had the DNC not (ahem) intervened. — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

Here's the article I wrote after Bolsonaro's 2018 win. I'd change a few things 4 years later, but the core perspective about why Brazil - long a center-left country - suddenly embraced right-wing populism still applies. And not only for Brazil: https://t.co/4vTzk6bWsJ — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

Very few of the explanations for the growth of Bolsonarismo are Brazil-specific. We see the same dynamics throughout the democratic world, and in the US. In sum: the damage wrought by establishment neoliberalism fosters valid rage, then channeled into right-wing populism. — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

Then there's the more important question of why Bolsonarismo – even with COVID, widely viewed as mismanaged, and all its harms – is growing, even if Bolsonaro himself loses. Beyond his party now being the largest in Congress, 7 of his Ministers were elected to the Senate. — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

Same thing happened in 2018 in Brazil, with polls missing the wave of Bolsonarismo. We've of course seen Trump's support under-counted by polls in 2016 and 2020. Polls are broken. They are under-counting right-wing support. And it's vital this be fixed to maintain credibility. — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

As the NYT noted, the huge polling errors were wholly due to under-counting of support for Bolsonaro and his movement. It wasn't just at the presidential level but throughout the country, in many of the key races. Having credible polls are important. Who would believe them now? https://t.co/qWk4JVMR7t — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

The polling errors were so bad even NYT last night acknowledged Bolsonaro and his supporters were "proven right" when they insisted the polls can't be trusted, that they were clearly under-counting support for Bolsonaro and his movement. Read these:👇 https://t.co/j3qAnmvGkp https://t.co/odtVbSoF5W — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

While polling for the presidential race was less terrible, the most mainstream and prestigious polls had Lula winning by between 13-18 points. Lula won by 4 points. Most had Bolsonaro with 34-37%. He ended with 43%. Just an awful performance. https://t.co/e235VlInch — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

In the other big state – Rio de Janeiro – the incumbent Governor, a Bolsonarista (Castro), was predicted to finish first by 9 points (44-35%) over his left-wing opponent, requiring a run-off. Instead, the Bolsonarista destroyed him, winning in the first round by *31 points*! https://t.co/t70dAPqoQb — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

That's a 31-point error! Polls under-counted the Bolsonarista candidate's vote by *20 points*! Something similar happened in the SP Governor's race: the left-wing candidate (Haddad) was predicted to finish 1st (39-31%). The Bolsonarista won by 42-35%. They'll have a run-off. https://t.co/DoYDuG1p9I — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

I'll just give you a couple of examples to illustrate how severe it was. In the Senate race in São Paulo, the left-wing candidate was predicted to win by 17 points over the Bolsonarista candidate (47-30%). Instead, the Bolsonarista candidate won by 14 points (50-36%)!👇👇 https://t.co/SGXBNLRFDU — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

One vital point: it is hard to overstate what a disastrous night this was for mainstream polling. I have never polls be so radically wrong. They didn't just pick the wrong winners. In some of the most important races, they were off by *20-30 points*, always in the left's favor. — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

The biggest loser of the night was the long-time dominant establishment party: the center-right PSDB. It all but disappeared. As we have seen in western democracies, the stodgy center-right has been almost entirely replaced by right-wing populism, represented by Bolsonarismo. — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

It was by no means a disaster for the left (as it was in 2018). The Congressional candidate with the most votes nationally was a 26-year-old Bolsonaro fanatic, @nikolas_dm, with 1.4m. But the 2nd-highest vote-getter was @GuilhermeBoulos, long viewed as a rising left-wing star. — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

Despite Bolsonaro's 2nd-place finish, bolsonarismo had an extremely good night: far better than polls predicted. Bolsonaro's party will now have the most seats in both the Senate and the House. A Bolsonaro ally won Governor of Rio, and another is favored to win in São Paulo. — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

🇧🇷 Some key points on Brazil's election. First, president: Lula finished ahead of Bolsonaro by 5 points – 48-43% – which means the two will face-off in an Oct. 30 run-off. Lula is the favorite to win, but by no means guaranteed. PT was hoping for a Lula win in the 1st round. https://t.co/q07v3ZjZZd — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

@Chris_arnade I'm going to write about it, but I think it's similar to why they did so well in 2018, though with a lot of new caveats needed. https://t.co/4vTzk5UTqJ — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

@LuanaSTLima Vou dar daqui a pouco. Ele estava melhorando muito, mas então tinha uma semana difícil, mas espero e acredito que ele ta voltando ao caminho da recuperação de novo. — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

@CobraGandhi Uma vez que ficou óbvio que só Molon poderia vencer Romário, mas Ceciliano não, você acha que um endosso de Lula a Molon teria feito a diferença? — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

Se quer gritar "vote útil!" para todo mundo para exigir que votem em um candidato diferente daquele que preferem, não pode ser usado para beneficiar só um partido. Tem que ser usado mesmo quando significa que o PT tem que abrir mão de seus candidatos. Isso não aconteceu no Rio. https://t.co/HLWURkNO4e — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

3) Se a presunção em (2) estiver correta – os eleitores de Ciro pertencem a Lula – então Lula vencerá o 2° turno. 4) Pelo seu raciocínio, é culpa do PT que Romário seja senador pelo Rio e não Molon, já que a recusa do PT em abandonar Ceciliano causou a derrota de Molon.👇 https://t.co/ZfbVziskcF — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

Para aqueles que culpam Ciro por ter um 2° turno, tenho 4 pontos: 1) É responsabilidade do candidato convencer o povo a apoiá-lo, e não a desistência de todos os outros candidatos. 2) A presunção de que todos os eleitores de Ciro seriam de Lula, sem Ciro, é bem duvidosa. — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

@padler1785 @Estivel @jameslynch32 Are you trying to claim that if the United States of America, the richest country on earth, wanted to count all votes on Election Day, it couldn't? It has nothing to do with filibusters. Many blue states, like California, take weeks or longer to count their voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

@Estivel @jameslynch32 Even individual states take weeks or even months to count their votes, including their presidential primaries and governors' races, so this excuse makes no sense. And there's obviously no reason why the Electoral College should make voting counts go weeks or longer in the US. — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

@_Zac_Langdon_ If you only know how profoundly stupid your comment was, there's a good chance you would never want to show your face in public again. — PolitiTweet.org