Glenn Greenwald

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

I'll just give you a couple of examples to illustrate how severe it was. In the Senate race in São Paulo, the left-wing candidate was predicted to win by 17 points over the Bolsonarista candidate (47-30%). Instead, the Bolsonarista candidate won by 14 points (50-36%)!👇👇 https://t.co/SGXBNLRFDU — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

One vital point: it is hard to overstate what a disastrous night this was for mainstream polling. I have never polls be so radically wrong. They didn't just pick the wrong winners. In some of the most important races, they were off by *20-30 points*, always in the left's favor. — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

The biggest loser of the night was the long-time dominant establishment party: the center-right PSDB. It all but disappeared. As we have seen in western democracies, the stodgy center-right has been almost entirely replaced by right-wing populism, represented by Bolsonarismo. — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

It was by no means a disaster for the left (as it was in 2018). The Congressional candidate with the most votes nationally was a 26-year-old Bolsonaro fanatic, @nikolas_dm, with 1.4m. But the 2nd-highest vote-getter was @GuilhermeBoulos, long viewed as a rising left-wing star. — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

Despite Bolsonaro's 2nd-place finish, bolsonarismo had an extremely good night: far better than polls predicted. Bolsonaro's party will now have the most seats in both the Senate and the House. A Bolsonaro ally won Governor of Rio, and another is favored to win in São Paulo. — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

🇧🇷 Some key points on Brazil's election. First, president: Lula finished ahead of Bolsonaro by 5 points – 48-43% – which means the two will face-off in an Oct. 30 run-off. Lula is the favorite to win, but by no means guaranteed. PT was hoping for a Lula win in the 1st round. https://t.co/q07v3ZjZZd — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

@Chris_arnade I'm going to write about it, but I think it's similar to why they did so well in 2018, though with a lot of new caveats needed. https://t.co/4vTzk5UTqJ — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

@LuanaSTLima Vou dar daqui a pouco. Ele estava melhorando muito, mas então tinha uma semana difícil, mas espero e acredito que ele ta voltando ao caminho da recuperação de novo. — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

@CobraGandhi Uma vez que ficou óbvio que só Molon poderia vencer Romário, mas Ceciliano não, você acha que um endosso de Lula a Molon teria feito a diferença? — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

Se quer gritar "vote útil!" para todo mundo para exigir que votem em um candidato diferente daquele que preferem, não pode ser usado para beneficiar só um partido. Tem que ser usado mesmo quando significa que o PT tem que abrir mão de seus candidatos. Isso não aconteceu no Rio. https://t.co/HLWURkNO4e — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

3) Se a presunção em (2) estiver correta – os eleitores de Ciro pertencem a Lula – então Lula vencerá o 2° turno. 4) Pelo seu raciocínio, é culpa do PT que Romário seja senador pelo Rio e não Molon, já que a recusa do PT em abandonar Ceciliano causou a derrota de Molon.👇 https://t.co/ZfbVziskcF — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

Para aqueles que culpam Ciro por ter um 2° turno, tenho 4 pontos: 1) É responsabilidade do candidato convencer o povo a apoiá-lo, e não a desistência de todos os outros candidatos. 2) A presunção de que todos os eleitores de Ciro seriam de Lula, sem Ciro, é bem duvidosa. — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

@padler1785 @Estivel @jameslynch32 Are you trying to claim that if the United States of America, the richest country on earth, wanted to count all votes on Election Day, it couldn't? It has nothing to do with filibusters. Many blue states, like California, take weeks or longer to count their voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

@Estivel @jameslynch32 Even individual states take weeks or even months to count their votes, including their presidential primaries and governors' races, so this excuse makes no sense. And there's obviously no reason why the Electoral College should make voting counts go weeks or longer in the US. — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

@_Zac_Langdon_ If you only know how profoundly stupid your comment was, there's a good chance you would never want to show your face in public again. — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

@Soccerfit247 In order to win without a run-off, one candidate needs more than 50% of the valid votes cast, and Lula did not get that. — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

RT @jameslynch32: It took four hours to deliver final results in a country with compulsory voting for over 200 million people. — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

@clarksthockey One would be tempted to think that most of those are Lula votes but I'm not so sure. There will definitely be lots of abstentions. Also questions about how many Lula voters won't show up. Like I said, Lula is the clear favorite, but not definite. — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

Final vote has Lula in front 48-43.5%: closer than predicted. Lula will be the favorite to win the run-off but it's by no means guaranteed. There will be lots of questions. Bolsonarismo itself had a solid night in key governorships, Senate seats, a big Congressional presence. https://t.co/s5VvoIo8bx — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

A corrida presidencial foi um pouco melhor para as pesquisas, mas ainda significativamente defasada, e novamente a favor da esquerda. Isso requer uma explicação do Datafolha e de outros serviços de pesquisa sobre por que isso aconteceu e o que pode ser feito para corrigi-lo. https://t.co/xWE9MElRQf — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

E tb: Alguns erros são esperados. Mas estes são enormes e devem ser explicados. https://t.co/ZkAHFtjkCs — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

A menos que algo mude radicalmente nos votos restantes, as pesquisas erraram significativamente nas disputas para governador e senador em SP, e também na disputa para governador no RJ (todo em favor da esquerda). Só fatos. Isso não cria confiança nas pesquisas. https://t.co/ujxjVYeWi5 — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

Despite this, one of Brazil's leading polling firms -- Datafolha -- says neither Lula nor Bolsonaro will win tonight, meaning neither will get more than 50% of valid votes. The two will face each other in a run-off. Big disappointment for PT, which was hoping to win tonight. https://t.co/2aHzshHLKy — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

With 70% of the vote in, Lula takes his first lead of the night over Bolsonaro https://t.co/oUJHYIbOK5 — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

Just over 50% of the vote: Lula really closing in on Bolsonaro’s lead now, with still some big pro-Lula states with a lot of votes not yet in: https://t.co/FE3GaOxcM4 — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

41% of the vote in: Lula has cut Bolsonaro's lead to just under 3 points: 47-44%. (Note how fast the votes are being counted: only 7:30 pm local time and we're getting to 50% of the votes counted) https://t.co/hOyXR1TEiT — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

@OmoikaneSolitar Hard to say for sure but my guess is most go to Lula in the second round, though not overwhelmingly. Many will abstain. — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

@TVietor08 Even before 2020, we had this problem. But either way, there is absolute no reason that the United States shouldn't be able to count all votes in one night the way many other countries do. — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

20% of the vote total in. Bolsonaro 48-43% over Lula so far. I still think there's more conservative districts/regions in the bigger states counted so far, but we'll see. https://t.co/tq59MNprfq — PolitiTweet.org

Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

PT passou meses gritando "VOTE ÚTIL" para todo mundo. Será interessante ver se a recusa do PT em trocar Ceciliano por Molon, muito depois de ficar claro que só Molon poderia vencer, levará à perda dessa cadeira no Senado do RJ para Romário e bolsonaristas. Ainda é cedo. Vamos ver https://t.co/KVOdJz8MAh — PolitiTweet.org