Zack Beauchamp

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

RT @juliaioffe: This is the Russia we’ve known for a decade. Now it’s on steroids that are themselves on steroids. — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

RT @smsaideman: Once again @zackbeauchamp talks to smart political scientists like @naunihalpublic and @EricaChenoweth to suss out whether… — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

RT @joelmmathis: You know, @zackbeauchamp is doing really good work right now. https://t.co/GaeJabBA2G via @voxdotcom — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

There is a lot more detail in the piece, including insights from really smart Russia scholars like @bdtaylor_SU, @adam_e_casey, and @PostSovietGraf. Give it a read https://t.co/NNi0I7vlnf — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

The bottom line? We need to hold two opposed thoughts in our head: 1) Putin's regime is extremely entrenched and is unlikely to be toppled 2) The Ukraine invasion is the biggest blunder of his career, one that has materially raised the odds of his downfall https://t.co/2QQ8j0wYBf — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

Another key point in the research on non-violence is that protest tactics really matter. Strong and creative organizers can beat repressive states. But Putin has spent years identifying the people who could threaten his rule and ruthlessly persecuting them https://t.co/jc2zMjW4qg — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

What about a popular uprising? Here I consulted @EricaChenoweth, a leading authority on non-violent movements. They believe that Russian history supports the idea that an uprising could happen, but cautions that it would be hard to organize https://t.co/4ywMNSjnrD — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

But that doesn't mean a coup is likely. Singh's research finds that coups are at heart coordination problems between elites in the security establishment — and Putin has done a very good job making it hard for them to plan anything https://t.co/jhqxC4U7Ko — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

One of the leading experts on coups, @naunihalpublic, told me that a coup has become more likely because the war poses a direct threat to top generals' personal security. When a war goes poorly, authoritarians look for someone to punish. That gives them an incentive to coup. https://t.co/nDzPcCeYNB — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

There are, broadly speaking, two ways that an authoritarian like Putin might fall: through a coup or a popular uprising. The war has made both of them more likely, but Russia experts note that Putin has spent a long time preparing for them https://t.co/oMhQhfx4wI — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

My new feature examines whether Putin's massive blunder in Ukraine could lead to the end of his regime. The answer is that it's indeed possible, but still very unlikely. This thread explains why. https://t.co/NNi0I7vlnf — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

I agree the Putin regime is evil. You can tell because it tortures detainees by waterboarding them, a practice Thiessen has long celebrated https://t.co/wMtkFPa2cf — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@tabouchadi He’s peddling a talking point I’ve previously only heard from alt-right trolls with Pepe avatars — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

RT @adam_e_casey: I recently spoke with @zackbeauchamp at @voxdotcom about the prospects for a coup against Putin, and his article brings t… — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

RT @jaylyall_red5: Could Putin actually fall? @zackbeauchamp speaks with experts like @adam_e_casey, @naunihalpublic & @EricaChenoweth on t… — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

There has been a lot of speculation on whether the Ukraine war could end with Putin's downfall. Here's what the best evidence we have says about how that could happen — and whether it's likely https://t.co/NNi0I7vlnf — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

There has been a lot of speculation on whether the Ukraine war could end with Putin's downfall. Here's what the best evidence we have says about how that could happen — and whether it's likely https://t.co/NNi0I7vlnf — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@D_Shariatmadari thank you for catching, you are of course right and i knew that. this was introduced by mistake during the editing process and is being corrected — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@SevaUT @adam_e_casey you're about to get a million "what about the iraq war" replies from people who did not read the article — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

RT @SevaUT: looks like the FSB provided terrible intel on Ukraine because they were worried about angering the boss and told Putin exactly… — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@dylanmatt The third Harry Potter movie — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@jaylyall_red5 There’s still time — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@jaylyall_red5 I hope you keep reusing this line, it’s a good running gag — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

Straightforward from here: https://t.co/MXedu7Hus5 — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

Pretty remarkable when a piece manages to contradict itself within a single sentence: "A no-fly zone would not make NATO a direct combatant, making its implementation the fastest and the best solution to protect civilians from Russian aerial attacks." https://t.co/Z9UcTphIeN — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

This list from @DanielSerwer is depressingly plausible https://t.co/kAFpcdkdEt https://t.co/gS7e6hkC0e — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@BeijingPalmer obviously it depends on how much worse things get, new zealand and hong kong suggest things are likely to get worse in mainland but obviously i could be wrong — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

Between the disastrous Ukraine war and Covid rampaging across China, the case that authoritarian states are more effective than democracies is looking pretty thin https://t.co/ZkVbydcNuH — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@NotoriousRBF @smotus @dandrezner @OliviaMesser oh wordle today was hard too, but i got it. worldle, the geography one, was truly absurd — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@smotus @dandrezner yes thank you, i was so angry — PolitiTweet.org