Zack Beauchamp

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@JeffreyASachs buddy you've got like 2.5 hours till sundown up there — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

RT @smsaideman: really good analysis by Zack on the state of play in Ukraine and how we got there — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

These less tangible factors, morale and logistics, have significantly offset Russia's advantages in manpower and materiel. The result is a conventional fight that is far closer than almost anyone expected — one that Russia could still win, but not easily https://t.co/LVIeho2EQL — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

Second, morale. It's a tricky thing to quantify, but virtually everyone I spoke with suggested that it was playing a massive role in shaping the course of the war https://t.co/jokSSNlG14 — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

Corruption is an intrinsic part of the Russian political model, but until I started reporting I didn't realize just how severely it hampered their military procurement, maintenance, and logistical systems. It's truly wild https://t.co/9SU9GKe6C8 — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

Why did things work out that way? I outline many different reasons in the piece, ranging from Putin's disastrous initial strategy to the shoddy state of the Russian air force. But I want to highlight two underdiscussed ones here: corruption and morale https://t.co/LVIeho2EQL — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

This does not mean Russia is destined to lose the conflict in conventional terms. It does mean that they are extremely unlikely to achieve their initial war aims and are some risk of outright defeat https://t.co/9i8uWxLczF — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

Russia's early advances, it turns out, were a little bit deceiving. The Ukrainians were trading space for time, ceding some territory in order to fight at the time and place of their choosing. Russian forces have had trouble adapting to their tactics https://t.co/pmiWS84Saj — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

For a 30,000 foot view, take a look at the comparison between these two maps of Russian control — March 9 on the left, March 17 on the right. You'll notice very little in the way of change. https://t.co/WRnmEfU4d9 — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

I spoke with analysts like @KofmanMichael and @OlyaOliker, scholars like @jaylyall_red5 and @drfarls. I looked at maps tracking Russia control from @TheStudyofWar, read dispatches from the front, and reviewed war footage. It revealed disaster for Russia. https://t.co/LVIeho2EQL — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

I spoke with analysts like @KofmanMichael and @OlyaOliker, scholars like @jaylyall_red5 and @drfarls. I looked at maps tracking Russia control from @ISW, read dispatches from the front, and reviewed footage from the war. It revealed disaster for Russia. https://t.co/LVIeho2EQL — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

I want to talk about how I came to the conclusion in this piece. When I started reporting this earlier in the month, I expected to write a piece about how Russia was still heavily favored to triumph in conventional terms. That wasn't what I found. https://t.co/LVIeho2EQL — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

The past week of developments on the ground in Ukraine have convinced me that Russia may very well be losing this war https://t.co/AdU4vKpTs4 — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@ggreenwald That’s the February 24 speech. Wright is linking to coverage of the February 21 speech. More broadly, both speeches in full and the subsequent conduct of the war do not support the “NATO as primary cause” theory. — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

To Wright’s broader point, there is significant evidence ranging from the timing of the invasion to the war aims that NATO wasn’t the primary cause. There’s a whiff of ideology in the vehement denials — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

I read the speech multiple times and covered it at the time. It discusses NATO for a while at the end, but it is clearly a secondary grievance in the address — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

In terms of frontline correspondents in Ukraine writing about the military situation, the work of @yarotrof and @raghavanWaPo has been particularly excellent — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@DanielLarison this is genuinely broken-brained in so many different ways — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

RT @Yair_Rosenberg: 1. Today is the Jewish holiday of Purim, a day of costumes and celebration. Longtime followers know I like to tweet pho… — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@DanielLarison is this some kind of joke — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@SWGoldman Well yes he’s a liberal, I’m just subtweeting the NYT editorial’s philosophical confusions — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

For example, and apropos of nothing, Mill is a utilitarian whose chief philosophical inspiration, Jeremy Bentham, called the notion of rights "nonsense on stilts." The idea that his critique of conformity entails some kind of "right" against public shaming is odd indeed. — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

The free speech debate would better if everyone actually read On Liberty, as opposed to parroting what they think it said — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@emilyvdw @JeffreyASachs makes this point a lot in his work on campus free speech, it's a really good one — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@blakehounshell https://t.co/F2RRecegDk — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

We all know she means "Jewish," she might as well just say it at this point https://t.co/7qxUUAGMHN — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@shadihamid @EmmaMAshford @speechboy71 I don't think that's true, since the skies above western Ukraine are still "above Ukraine" — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@shadihamid @EmmaMAshford @speechboy71 That's not an arbitrary number, there was a poll and that's what it found https://t.co/LmNhu3fDYC — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

@shadihamid @EmmaMAshford @speechboy71 I mean, we all make judgment calls on that. But the fact that 93 percent of IR scholars would not support it is, I think, more than a little telling — PolitiTweet.org

Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

This is happening in five minutes! If you're interested in the fate of democracy in America and around the world — which, if you follow me, I bet you are — these are some of the experts you most want to hear from — PolitiTweet.org