Judd Legum

Judd Legum @JuddLegum

RT @curious_founder: This argument from @JuddLegum is spot on: “The political media has substituted polling analysis, which is something o… — PolitiTweet.org

Judd Legum @JuddLegum

I'm also cross-posting everything to Mastodon, if you are interested in a Twitter alternative. https://t.co/Mb1Mt85SwD — PolitiTweet.org

Judd Legum @JuddLegum

Here is the link to @alexeheath's report for The Verge, which is genuinely disturbing. The company’s chief privacy officer, chief information security officer, and chief compliance officer all resigned https://t.co/WajvgZPGSr — PolitiTweet.org

Judd Legum @JuddLegum

I honestly don't know if Twitter is going to survive. Right now, things aren't looking good. To stay plugged into my reporting and research, please subscribe to my newsletter. https://t.co/TfpCItdVSo https://t.co/aEG3ylEF44 — PolitiTweet.org

Judd Legum @JuddLegum

NOTE: Republicans have not yet won a majority in the House. It could happen and more races have been called for Republicans. But Democrats also have a chance. Votes are still being counted. — PolitiTweet.org

Judd Legum @JuddLegum

RT @sewellchan: “Prediction-based coverage comes at a high cost because it crowds out the coverage that voters actually need. To make an in… — PolitiTweet.org

Judd Legum @JuddLegum

11. These results suggest that Trafalgar isn't actually a better pollster than its competitors. In 2022, another pollster will be the "most accurate." If you have a lot of pollsters producing a variety of results, someone will be the closest. https://t.co/8NeI2Q81FB — PolitiTweet.org

Judd Legum @JuddLegum

10. Trafalgar and similar outfits, however, do not "adhere to industry standards for transparency or data collection." Is Trafalgar really more accurate? Its latest poll for the NH Senate race showed Maggie Hassan trailing by 1.3 points. Hassan won by 10 points. — PolitiTweet.org

Judd Legum @JuddLegum

Clearest explanation I've seen of the state of play in the House. — PolitiTweet.org

Judd Legum @JuddLegum

9. Since Trump outperformed expectations in 2016 and 2020, the "most accurate" pollsters were partisan Republican firms like Trafalgar Group Their "success" means they are highly rated by aggregators and had resources to conduct a ton of polls https://t.co/8NeI2Qp4HB — PolitiTweet.org

Judd Legum @JuddLegum

8. BTW, the amount of horse race coverage is growing even as the quality of pollsters is getting worse. https://t.co/8NeI2Q7tQ3 — PolitiTweet.org

Judd Legum @JuddLegum

7. I don't know what's going to happen with Twitter. But Popular Information isn't going anywhere. To get accountability journalism that doesn't treat politics like a game, subscribe. It's free to sign up. https://t.co/TfpCItdVSo — PolitiTweet.org

Judd Legum @JuddLegum

6. The political media has substituted polling analysis, which is something only people managing campaigns really need, for substantive analysis of the positions of the candidates, something that voters need. https://t.co/8NeI2Q81FB — PolitiTweet.org

Judd Legum @JuddLegum

5. While outlets ran story after story about the red wave, the Republican pledge to use the threat of a global economic collapse to try to force benefit cuts to Social Security and Medicare went virtually ignored https://t.co/8NeI2Qp4HB — PolitiTweet.org

Judd Legum @JuddLegum

4. Prediction-based coverage comes at a high cost because it crowds out the coverage that voters actually need. To make an informed decision, voters need to know the practical impact of voting for each candidate. https://t.co/8NeI2Q81FB — PolitiTweet.org

Judd Legum @JuddLegum

3. All of these forecasts, and many similar predictions published in other outlets, turned out to be wrong. But even if media predictions were correct, they represent a style of political reporting that is dysfunctional. https://t.co/8NeI2Qp4HB — PolitiTweet.org

Judd Legum @JuddLegum

2. "Democrats’ Feared Red October Has Arrived" — @nytimes, 10/19/22 "Democrats, on Defense in Blue States, Brace for a Red Wave in the House" — @nytimes, 10/25/22 "Red tsunami watch" — @axios, 10/24/22 "Why the midterms are going to be great for Donald Trump" — @CNN, 10/26/22 https://t.co/C9dMvgq987 — PolitiTweet.org

Judd Legum @JuddLegum

1. Political media is broken Major outlets spent weeks PREDICTING there would be a "red wave" and EXPLAINING its causes It was all based on polls, which are unreliable This kind of coverage is not just pointless, it's harmful 🧵 https://t.co/8NeI2Q7tQ3 — PolitiTweet.org

Judd Legum @JuddLegum

3. The measure passed overwhelmingly even though Republicans spread misinformation about it. The Arizona GOP sent a flier falsely claiming it “would create a new tax for certain business activities" https://t.co/7qM75A9kVD — PolitiTweet.org

Judd Legum @JuddLegum

2. Proposition 211 requires any group making 50K or more in expenditures in a statewide race to disclose donors of 5K or more. Pretty basic stuff. — PolitiTweet.org

Judd Legum @JuddLegum

1. Arizona is swing state, with roughly equal numbers of Republican and Democratic voters. But Proposition 211, which requires more disclosure for political spending RECEIVED 73% OF THE VOTE TRANSPARENCY IS POPULAR — PolitiTweet.org

Judd Legum @JuddLegum

@jbouie There is also no reason why mail votes take LONGER to process. Most arrive before election day and can be processed/counted in advance. Mail in elections can be quicker than in-person. — PolitiTweet.org

Judd Legum @JuddLegum

@ryangrim He already conceded — PolitiTweet.org

Judd Legum @JuddLegum

Chris Cillizza nails it again https://t.co/ZUr0KtGgXq — PolitiTweet.org

Judd Legum @JuddLegum

The plan to let people buy blue checkmarks is going well so far. — PolitiTweet.org

Judd Legum @JuddLegum

RT @AGoldmund: This fake twitter account is impersonating twitter corporate with a newly purchased check mark and gotten 34k rts. This is g… — PolitiTweet.org

Judd Legum @JuddLegum

IDEA: Media outlets should wait until AFTER the election before writing dozens of articles about why one party performed poorly — PolitiTweet.org

Judd Legum @JuddLegum

Wow, so brave. Youngkin uses the assault on Paul Pelosi to crudely attack Nancy Pelosi during a campaign rally Then, Youngkin leaks that he apologized THE DAY AFTER THE ELECTION — PolitiTweet.org

Judd Legum @JuddLegum

https://t.co/HhWG7SrJzO — PolitiTweet.org

Judd Legum @JuddLegum

Flashback to yesterday afternoon... — PolitiTweet.org