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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The double haters (those who hate both major party nominees) is down from 2016, while the share of non haters (those who don't dislike either one) is up considerably https://t.co/ZBWhMZZ7wr — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The special elections across the board haven't been anywhere near as good for Dems in 2019-2020 as they were from 2017-2018... but at least for federal election special elections are much more predictive in midterms than prez years. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
This is the pattern you'd expect in a referendum election. If you dislike Trump, you're for Biden. If you don't, you're for Trump. Suggests that Trump would better off raising both his and Biden's favorables. Instead, looks like he's going negative. https://t.co/ZBWhN0gInZ — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Biden's crushing among double haters (those who dislike both major party candidates), but their % of the electorate is down from 2016. Meanwhile, Trump is crushing among non haters (those who dislike neither), & their % is UP compared to 2016. https://t.co/ZBWhMZZ7wr — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
No one ever emails when their side is winning in a poll... Only when they're losing. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Our national poll is another that shows Biden's lead ticking down. — PolitiTweet.org
John Berman @JohnBerman
CNN Poll: Battlegrounds tilt for Trump, but Biden leads nationwide - CNNPolitics https://t.co/Z4t1xvxNsl
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@EsotericCD It's nice that u like to talk with people. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Make that THREE high quality polls in Georgia over the 45 days or so that have the prez race within a point or two. This one has Biden up 1. Also has a 2 pt race in the LONG seat (Perdue) for Senate. https://t.co/sMUsg68VWA — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Ordered a spicy chicken, regular chicken, and a large fries from Wendy's. I've never been happier. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@HotlineJosh @GerryDales @SteveKornacki One where it's really clear is 68. Nixon would have won more easily without Wallace. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@Nate_Cohn Already read the piece. Thanks tho. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Also of note, the briefings ended right around the time the Reade allegations got a lot of press. Those coming in duo could certainly shift things in Trump's direction against Biden... especially if you believe less press is better theory https://t.co/oDYwVgFhsb — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Temporary or not: 538 aggregate on April 28th had Trump's net approval among voters at -10. Now, it's -7. Of note, late April is when Trump stopped doing his daily coronavirus briefings. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@Nate_Cohn https://t.co/oXp5QTTsVF — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I meant Tuesday! Even better :). — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Interested in the Marquette poll on Wednesday... We'll see. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
This is right. The pool right now is 10-15% depending on the poll. They are overwhelmingly more Dem than GOP. A big difference with the double haters in 2016. — PolitiTweet.org
Will Jordan @williamjordann
Right...put the other way, both candidates are winning more support from voters who also like them compared to 2016… https://t.co/R5S25tEyMX
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Seems pretty obvious to me on Biden's edge being off a smidge... Doesn't mean it's permanent or large... Also of note, RCP is down to 4.4, which somewhat incidentally is the same as the now column here... I say incidentally cause we're using somewhat different polls. https://t.co/KEBBdCo6qm — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Biden's a little leaky if you look at the recent polls... Like Monmouth was really good for him, but the online stuff over the last week has been decidedly mediocre... Still ahead, but the lead down like 2 pts. Could be noise, but happening on a number of polls. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
RT @romanmars: This! Day! In! Esoteric! Political! History! @jodyavirgan! @ForecasterEnten! Together Again! https://t.co/xIesyVzAae — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
RT @jodyavirgan: Very fun to speak into microphones with @ForecasterEnten again! He’s the guest on the next three episodes of @thisdaypod,… — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
If I f up in this world (and I have on more than one occasion), it ain't cause I was raised poorly. It's cause I f-ed up. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
It's been over 40 years since started medical school... and Mi Madre is still practicing medicine... And in a crazy turn, I've run into a few colleagues who were either a. patients or b. parent of a patient. All had glowing things to say... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
He asked her "do you think it's fair that you'll take the spot of someone else, when you're likely to get married, have kids, and stop practicing medicine?" Without missing a beat, my Mom "I don't believe you're allowed to ask me that, and this interview is over." — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
She gave me one answer... and later call me back... "Gotta be honest,.. Spite. I wanted to prove to them that I could do it..." When she was interviewing, she ran into a school administrator who wasn't exactly "forward" looking... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
She decided to go back to school... Medical school, in particular... Keep in mind this was in the 1970s... Women weren't exactly a common sight at medical school... Especially women in their 30s... I asked her what motivated her to do it... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
My Mom has zero clue what Twitter is, but I'll tell you a little about her... After her 1st marriage, she was in her 30s... She went back home to Monticello, NY... and was unsure of her future... It would have been easy to lie down & give up... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Biden's lead is the steadiest on record dating back since at least 1944. Up by 6 since April 1. Up by 6 since Jan 1. Up by 6 since Jan 1, 2019. Also, early steadiness does seem correlated with less fluctuation as we get closer to E-Day. https://t.co/0GB1GZSxuK — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
should be worse*, not worst*. Granted, it is the worst he's been in all year in the swing states... at least in the data we've seen recently. Should be more stuff this week. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
On the question of whether Trump's declining... The answer is that in most national polls he's where he's been for a while... However, not a lot of high quality stuff lately... In swing states, there is evidence he's in worst position. But again, need more data. — PolitiTweet.org
