(((Harry Enten)))

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Engel nearly lost a seat in a much more racially divisive primary 20 years ago... As I pointed out before, one knock against Engel back then was that he lived in Maryland. 20 years later, the same issue may contribute to a potential defeat... https://t.co/AK7tmmiozA — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

State polls from Fox and Q-Pac have Biden doing on average 9 points than Clinton. Monmouth has Biden doing 9 points better than Clinton nationally. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

These are not good for Trump. I guess the Arizona result isn't as bad as it could be? But down in AZ, OH, and WI per Fox News. https://t.co/BsQ2RL7T4o — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Make it two high quality live phone polls this week that have Biden by double-digits. This one is 52%-41%. https://t.co/D8J1Yjde0h — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

There are a lot of unknowns in how the last few weeks will play politically... But history does suggest that incumbents usually are penalized in situations like these... https://t.co/6RZrB7hgN5 — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@JacobRubashkin You'll see the undecideds are lower on the excellent scale... but nets get you fairly close... Looks more to be 75/25 here. It's in that area. Again, it's approximation. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@JacobRubashkin I haven't written anything cause it is SUCH insider baseball, haha. I did some experimenting with it like 7? years ago. Not always perfect, but check https://t.co/LAArRZcUA4 vs. https://t.co/ZkOVxyQb8G — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Generally found that about 2/3rds of those who say fair will disapprove. 1/3 will approve. So converted from excellent/good/fair/poor scale... Say approximately, 25% approve/52% disapprove of Trump's handling of the protests in this poll. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Closing out May there's really just one thing to say: Biden's in one the best positions for any challenger since scientific polling began. He led in every poll this month. He's lead in every poll that called cell phones this entire year. https://t.co/HZPTYq7zt3 — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

It makes no sense. I think it all comes down to people thinking Trump's in a strong position... when he's clearly not. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

ABC/WaPo shows a pretty clear gap between Dems and GOPers on who is certain to vote... Monmouth and Selzer show no such gap. https://t.co/RMpMV8lztq — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@MrWalterShapiro THIS IS A GREAT FIND! — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

And where Biden has shown weakness (voters under 30, black voters under 30, Hispanics), Warren has shown no special appeal... And there are plenty of other well qualified folks... so why take the risk of losing a Senate seat? It makes no electoral sense. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

And while there is a lot of discussion of Biden having problems on his left, he's already doing significantly better than where Clinton ended up... Warren's other strong group (white college grad women) is another group where Biden's doing much better than Clinton. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Warren as Biden's running mate makes no electoral sense. You might lose a Senate seat if Biden wins, so you need really good reasoning. Warren has a net negative favorable among the Democrats who aren't already voting for Biden. https://t.co/mGPWQ7MhO1 — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I've written on the fact that a lot of things can still happen. We're 5 months away from election day... but Trump continues to poll worse than any elected incumbent at this point since scientific polling began. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

And in Wisconsin, basically no difference between RVs and LVs... So I really wouldn't run with that part of the ABC/WaPo poll. It's notable, but it doesn't have a ton of support from other publicly available stuff. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I will also note that while ABC/WaPo shows Dems less jazzed about voting... Fox showed Dems slightly more likely to say they were "Extremely motivated" than GOPers about voting in November. Monmouth showed Dems/GOP equal on "certain to vote". — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Live telephone polls released in May: Monmouth - Biden +9, CNN - Biden +5, Fox - Biden +8, Q-Pac - Biden +11, ABC/WaPo - Biden +10... I mean that friends is a very clear signal as to where the race is now... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@ZacBissonnette Happened this evening in NYC. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I have no idea what electoral effects this week will have on the polls. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

We have 158 days until election day. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

LOL. Notice a missing name? This is from the McLaughlin Group in 1992. https://t.co/U1FbXFrg2R https://t.co/y5r1ul1yN8 — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I'll have more on this... but I'm not really seeing that Biden's weak on the left in the publicly available data. Yes, his favorables aren't swell, but he's crushing Trump... which is ultimately the name of the game if you're a Dem. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Here's an interview I did with @mattseaton & @nybooks https://t.co/nxJcyBlXRQ ... As you can see, I've been growing a beard for about two months. There's also a lot of political talk in there. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Watching Election Night 1972... I think McGovern's not gonna make it... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@Nate_Cohn It should get a dog. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I'm really interested in seeing what Jack does. I know that the internships I got in college put me in a strong position to succeed when I entered the work force. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@NateSilver538 It looks like 1980. (not saying the outcome is the same.) — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Folks,, Trump is already winning on the economy. A majority approve of him on it, and he beats Biden on it. I'm skeptical that a v shape or checkmark shape rebound will help. https://t.co/VIlCEi9923 — PolitiTweet.org