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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Joe Biden hits a milestone Hillary Clinton never did from June onward: 50%. Unlike four years ago, Trump will likely need to win back voters who are already backing the Dem nominee. https://t.co/c0IQcTdPyM — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
What Trump seems to be doing is ensuring the floor doesn't fall out (so far so true), but at the same time he is limiting his chance to expand his support... and thereby limiting his chance to actually win. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Trump's got more GOP voter support at this point for any Republican nominee since at least 2000, which makes his base first strategy silly. He can't move up anymore. Meanwhile, he has less Dem and indie support than any GOP nominee since at least 00. https://t.co/FShnVp4skZ — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
It's a bad insurance plan. https://t.co/e3EptftSNd — PolitiTweet.org
Alex Burns @alexburnsNYT
2020 polling over the last week: ABC/Post: Biden +10 Monmouth: Biden +11 NBC/WSJ: Biden +7 Fox: Biden +8 This can… https://t.co/Il0Mm3mTWp
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@TheAmishDude @NathanWurtzel I came here to say this. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
In fact, the polling during Nixon's time was among some of the most accurate I've seen for any era. It accurately portrayed Nixon's "silent majority". And it's very likely accurately portraying Trump's lack of one. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
In other words, Nixon had the majority on his side... Trump clearly does not. I'll further add there was no sign during Nixon's time (or during Trump's time) that the polling is underestimating them... Folks aren't being "silent" to pollsters... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Trump used the phased "silent majority" this week. When Nixon used it to rally folks around his Vietnam policy, polls indicated 60% approval of him on Vietnam. When Trump used it this week, 32% of Americans approved of his reaction to George Floyd's death. https://t.co/03t0NZIdax — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
In Aug 1963, Gallup asked folks who had heard about the March on Washington that was about to take place whether they had a favorable or unfavorable view of it. Just 23% said they had a favorable view. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Still amazing to me that the lesson after 2015-2016 was to... dismiss the long term national polling leader... — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Still should be a wake-up call that the candidate who led in polls for all of 2019 won the nomination and yet someh… https://t.co/Di1x9JNWi3
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@Taniel Seems to me the left has a chance for a big night, but also potential for disaster with Diaz etc. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@richardmskinner I was looking this one up... R-Dale hasn't been represented by a non-Jewish rep since 72. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NathanWurtzel Now u see what i was doing... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
If you take all the polling in aggregate, it's pretty clear the protests and Trump's reaction to them haven't helped his cause. Americans overwhelmingly disapprove of Trump on it, and Biden's numbers against him are steady if not up a little. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Per polling, majorities are pro-police, pro-protest and anti-Trump. There is that key portion of the electorate that thinks the cops are doing okay, thinks the protests are good and dislikes Trump, which just isn't captured here. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NathanWurtzel :) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I'd have some Sbarro right now. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Live telephone polls over the last month: Biden +8... 50% to 42%... All polling has it a little closer: Biden +6.5... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Here's a Marist poll with Biden +7... and at the 50% mark. (He leads big on handling race relations 52% to 35% among voters.) https://t.co/93lCcX6V6C — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Bill de Blasio ran for president. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
What happened in 2016 shouldn't have been that surprising. The tipping point state's margin was about 3 pts different than the national margin. Historically, the average dating back to 1856 is 2. Something greater than 5 would be well outside the historical bound. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Folks, the electoral college is not gonna save Trump if this keeps up https://t.co/e3EptftSNd Based on history, Trump needs to be within 5 nationally to pull off an electoral college win. Clearly outside of that now. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
RIGHT?! Trump's best shot is a getting stronger economy. Most swing voters won't care how we got there. — PolitiTweet.org
Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende
If Republicans were smart they'd back another massive stimulus and take 10% Q3 growth into the November elections.… https://t.co/HKm23nrodX
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Worth noting that Trump has had a positive net approval rating on the economy throughout this. (Stands at +6 today per RCP https://t.co/Lj1mJyCWjK) While it is certainly plausible good econ news can shift overall picture, it's far from clear. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The easiest thing to do is trust the data when it conforms to your priors and/or worldview. Harder to do when it conflicts with either one. Seeing that play out among some this morning. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@kyletblaine I had to rush home with fast food the other day under a similar circumstance. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
In September 1997, Democrats in NYC by a 63% to 23% margin preferred Giuliani to Sharpton to be mayor. I wonder what that margin is today. https://t.co/UwuxPp0Yzg — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Comparing Monmouth from mid-June 2016 and now... Trump's polling better now than then. But Biden's polling much better than Clinton. Trump had a lot of room to grow with GOPers then. Only at 79% then vs. 93% now. And 37% of indies were third party/undecided then. Today, it's 15%. https://t.co/VQ0IZBvpRU — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I just spoke to a long time voter in Engel's district who is relatively well informed and who has requested an absentee ballot... I asked this person who they are voting for. Answer "Don’t know who is running other than Engel." — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
You can see the problem right here in any Trump base story that tries to make the case for him in the general... Trump's got 86% approval from the GOP... but 92% of the Dems (a larger bloc) are against him. And don't forget indies who are also against him https://t.co/4GPWSZRwGE https://t.co/NXAwzCHXtc — PolitiTweet.org
