(((Harry Enten)))

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@richardmskinner Mom likes her... I agree on the grandfather. Time since + migration + different lines... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@richardmskinner Biaggi is the interesting endorsement. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@richardmskinner I can remember it SO well. The day of the 06 election. I was talking with Engel outside of 141 and mentioned Ford in TN... Engel thought he was still running for the House... Flagg then drove up in her sedan. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@richardmskinner Jessica Flagg (iirc)... She was a realtor... Drove around in a sedan... https://t.co/1hi3zIKZsD — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@richardmskinner My Mom doesn't even know who Bowman is, though my buddy in DC does... Would love to see a poll... I feel lost, haha. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@richardmskinner It's one of the things that makes me skeptical... Like with Klein (who represented part of the district), he had a clear firing offense (i.e. IDC). What is Engel's in the minds of voters? Not being there enough? I don't think ideology is the play knowing the distrct. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@richardmskinner @mattmfm @daveweigel Never thought my home CD would get so much coverage. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I like that statistical/chance of winning forecasting is taking shape. https://t.co/RU5TQMZvx3 https://t.co/GmIoaZqC6S These both generally look right to me overall... Biden is favored, but plenty of time for a Trump comeback. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@nymetrowx Make it stop. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Biden's path may be more of a northern battlegrounds than sunbelt path than I may have thought. That is if the data holds etc. Especially considering he seems to be doing better with whites w/o a coll. degree per @nate_cohn. https://t.co/QCrXuif8Qp — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Joe Biden looks like he's underperforming Hillary Clinton by double-digits among Hispanic voters. (He's basically holding with black voters & vastly outperforming with white voters). This could have significantly implications for his electoral map strategy https://t.co/QCrXuif8Qp https://t.co/AtKqezWwR3 — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Here's the fact: Trump's re-elect is in tremendous trouble. No serious analyst I know of believes he's anything but an underdog. His chance of winning is something like 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 based on history... It's quite possible he pulls it off, but it's bad. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@jbouie Not 1 but 2 great theme songs. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I'm trying to figure out what to get from McDonalds. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

From @VeronicaStrac and me, "Trump campaign demands CNN apologize for poll that shows Biden leading." https://t.co/Nc9SoFRAEo — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@jbview I guess technically Nadler represented the old 17th had Nadler for 2 months. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@jbview https://t.co/9UqfJcLTeb was the old district... Extended into the BX. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@jbview Bingo. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

My childhood home has had two congressmen in my life... Ted Weiss (for a very short period) and Eliot Engel. Weiss passed in 1992 just to give you an idea how long Engel has been arounnd. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@Nate_Cohn Well as much as one can in a pandemic/massive protests etc. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@Nate_Cohn That's a good one. You shouldn't throw out the book with Trump. You should stick to it more than ever. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

For me, the lesson of 2016 was that I was relying too little on polling. I should have paid more attention to Trump's primary lead, for example. From 2017-2020, polling showed Dem take back of House early + Biden's primary lead. And now has Trump in major trouble. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Bush is very well liked... https://t.co/E3ckgtprmK https://t.co/9bq9xv9OmA — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Biden builds his largest lead of the year in the average poll, 10 pts. P.S. No proof I can see that this is because of nonresponse bias. https://t.co/ZKRx4t4A5a — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

There were six (by my count) national polls released today of differing quality... All but one had Biden up by double-digits. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Massive media coverage helped Trump in the 2016 primary. (Makes sense in a massive field in which ideological differences tend to be small.) More media has since hurt him. This is quite clear looking at the data. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I simply don't get it. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Trump has been DOMINATING media mentions over the last 3 months... This has resulted in him falling further behind. So the strategy is now to have hold rallies in order to get more media attention. I don't get it. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I'm doing this but with cream soda. https://t.co/aFRbrgTbTK — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

For those wondering, the party id in CNN's current poll with leaners allocated featured an 8 point Dem advantage among voters. Last month it featured an... 8 point Dem advantage. — PolitiTweet.org