(((Harry Enten)))

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Today is national french fry day... Of course that is every day for me. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@xenocryptsite @Nate_Cohn Yes, you can find clips of it online... It flipped around 830ish... When the VA races started getting called... and the Dems were off and running. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

This isn't a profound statement by any stretch, but there really hasn't been a prez who has dominated news cycles like Trump... Trump views it as a strength, but if the polls are to be believe... Most are just exhausted by the whole thing. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@xenocryptsite @Nate_Cohn Def got loss... MO, IN, and OH were big states where the Dems were ahead or close in 2018... and it simply didn't end up being... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I have a professional Facebook account, but very, very, very, very rarely check anything on it. But someone who says they are from Holland just messaged to say I had nice colorful books in my video shot... One of the nicer messages I've received. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@StuPolitics I'd call it a swing state, not a bellwether. I consider those different. In the piece, I say as much. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Texas is a swing state in 2020. https://t.co/Nwg4bZgE6O — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@richardmskinner Could def be the case... I haven't looked too in-depth at it. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Unless Trump wins a second term (unlikely), "Historians will likely rank Trump as one of the worst presidents." This is based off how historians generally rate 1 term presidents as well as previous rankings of Trump's presidency. https://t.co/0YIi52QRH9 — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

and for those wondering, TX polls, unlike in some other states, has, if anything, been too friendly to the GOP over the last few cycles. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

8 polls in TX taken since June 1... Biden +0.3 pts... That includes 2 polls out this morning... One of which is Trump +1 and one that is Biden +5. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

1 thing that is interesting is that there was some discussion earlier this year "is AZ or WI a better bet for the Dems?" Based on the latest data, it's pretty clear WI is for the moment. Not that Biden isn't ahead in AZ. He clearly is in the avg, but lead is smaller than WI. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I just realized I forgot to say no broccoli in my order... This is a disaster. https://t.co/Ih9eev8XXt — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Was having a convo with someone and mentioned how I recalled Gore pulling out of OH in 00 (https://t.co/Su8Sv7RVkg)... I looked up how much Dems spent there. It was a lot. Meanwhile, they spent little in TN, which ended up with basically the same margin. https://t.co/zqV1XE7fFv — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

RT @LeeMiringoff: In class, I always try to impress upon my students that it’s not just about the presidential election. Congress matters,… — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

The 7 day rolling average for positive tests in Manhattan, NY is 0.8%. That's the lowest during since this whole thing started. We've been at 1.0% or below for 7 day rolling average since June 15. https://t.co/qUpV88PKvh — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

It's pretty clear to me that the Senate control is not a 50/50 proposition. It's pretty clear it tilts towards the Dems. (Not anywhere to the extent the prez race does.) But I'm gonna wait til all the fundraising is in before doing an update. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Senate Dem candidates reported raising a boatload of $$$. Why does that matter? In an tied race in June, a challenger who outraises the incumbent 2:1 gains 3 pts on average during the rest of the race. Now, multiple that by 5 tossup races. It's a huge deal https://t.co/3TT3Gavmmh — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

and now the waiting time to get back in touch with the place is long enough that I have heard the jazz music about 1k times... Good times. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I just had a Vandelay moment. Apparently, without realizing it, I gave a different (but still reachable phone number) to a repair place. They left a message with an update. Another person listened & deleted message halfway through cause they were like "I don't have a repair..." — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

This https://t.co/SF7UWjtCR8 reminds me of this https://t.co/j2R7d7hIIk The 2017 French polls were off by more than the US polls in 2016, but no one remembers. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

i almost did my poll of the week on this... It'll be part of a package later, but this is a big difference with 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Side note: Pretty much every mistake I've made in this business can be tied to trusting the polls too little, not trusting them too much. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Like use simple sense... You have a pandemic with mounting cases... An economy that by an average of metrics is below average... Plus, Trump is losing on race relations... This ain't a hard equation right now. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

For one thing, Trump's deficit to Biden like 2.5 to 3 times as much in the national polls. For another, the economy suggests Biden's gonna win, while it said no such thing about Clinton... Now this could change (4 months), but yea Biden's well ahead. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I wrote this piece on the eve of the 2016 election. Trump had a real chance of winning based on the polls. https://t.co/DLDOW6pBmj Where we are right now is just not even anywhere in the same ballpark. (1/?) — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@mWilstory :( — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@DanielStrauss4 Penn State weather camp... One week of fun! — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I went to weather camp back in the day and did a weather email for years... True. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

In fact of the about 350 polls that have asked about his Trump's performance on coronavirus, this one has the highest disapproval rating. The trendline (of all polls) overall is going in the wrong direction... — PolitiTweet.org