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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
America watching the Yankees... https://t.co/5kzeYf2QXq — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
One way to not feel nostalgia for that summer vacation is to not take one. https://t.co/P1wXbVbtfm — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Biden's lead over Trump has, since January, been steadier than any prez candidate's in any campaign since 1940. It's only rivaled by Obama 2012, and unlike that campaign, the GOP candidate this year is pretty never leading in any polling this year. https://t.co/ALu4FZRqxZ — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Post-convention polling seems to show Trump's law & order push isn't working. He's losing to Biden on the law & order question in a number of polls. And his overall support among white voters is lowest for a GOP prez nominee in over 20 years. https://t.co/e3DzxZbTEB — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
No clue what effect if any stories like this have on Trump's polling https://t.co/eRqKahYZBT but what I will say is that Trump wants the focus to be on Biden, not him. This is the opposite of that. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NathanWurtzel I was legit just watching that... and legit just looked up Sam Rockwell. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
It hasn't been polled by a non-partisan group yet, but Nebraska 2 is key in a number of very close electoral vote scenarios. Here's one of them where NE-2 gets Biden to 270 EVs... and there are a bunch more... https://t.co/WdFMTfOV5F https://t.co/FGhIrsiU75 — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
There seems to be a lot of changes going on underneath the hood in the live interview polls this year, even as Biden's lead compared to Clinton's (while evident) is fairly modest. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Some of this is MoE, but plenty of it is not... Our CNN poll this week had Biden +8 among RVs. Four years ago, Clinton +3 among RVs. Among Whites: Biden +2. Four years ago: Trump +17. Among Ppl of Color: Biden +28. Four years ago: Clinton +53. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
BTW (and I can't believe I have to say this), it's completely conceivable that the most pro-Trump or the most pro-Biden poll results end up being correct. It's just that the average ends up being correct most often. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@nymetrowx SHUT UP :) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
One of 2020's biggest difference with 2016: Trump loses the honesty debate https://t.co/TFimqq8dp3 — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Just had a convo with someone. Them: "Tomorrow is a holiday." Me: "Wut?!" Them: "Yea, it's Early Labor Day." Me: "That's not a holiday." Them: "It is where I work." TBH, I don't know what to do with days off anyway. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@DavidLauter @CarrollDoherty @aedwardslevy Great piece on this https://t.co/UicG4eYySr — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Every single Florida presidential election has been decided by 6 points or less since a lot of you folks were born (1992). No other state has a streak that long I believe. No sign that will be any different this year. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
What you should be doing... https://t.co/DnCLJyis71 — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I got a piece going on very close electoral maps, and it's pretty clear to me that in those ultra close scenarios that NE-2 could be pivotal. if you're of the belief that NE-2 is going to race left (I think there's a strong argument), it gives Biden extra paths. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
We are, in 35 minutes or so, 2 months away from Election Day 2020. The President is down by about 8 nationally and trailing by say ~5 in the tipping pt state. The last 3 presidents trailing after the conventions went down to defeat. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I haven't seen a new poll in 35 minutes. — PolitiTweet.org
John Berman @JohnBerman
maybe time to shut-up about a lack of polls for a while.
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I still have no idea what the heck the betting markets are/were doing. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@galendruke Already said that Fox reminds me of Tails from Sonic, so this fits. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@aedwardslevy @bryanbennett85 Jumping in here... This makes a lot of sense to me. Usually, the old CBS scale is also lower cause they explicitly offer similar options to NBC/WSJ. That is, an undecided and don't know/haven't heard enough. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Someone said it yesterday, but this data looks a lot more like 2018 than 2016 to me. A clear, but not ginormous split between the popular vote & majority of seats (or electoral college). And with the Democrat up nationally in the high single digits. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
This fits the historical curve quite nicely and makes some good sense to me. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote by X points: 0-1 points: just 6%! 1-2 points:… https://t.co/W5znXGwwxU
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NateSilver538 Funny, I legit was just looking at this EXACT map. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Monmouth PA poll is arguably Trump's best poll in months, imho. Of course, he's still earning a lower percentage of the vote than Biden in the poll, though within MoE etc. etc. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NathanWurtzel I haven't gotten a good night of sleep in 2 months. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NathanWurtzel @PatrickRuffini Yea it's 90+ if Biden wins... Closer to like 30-40 Biden wins, even if he loses FL. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Meteorological autumn begins today. This isn't just a great moment for me. It's a great moment for all of humanity. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@SeanTrende Sherman looks tired and needs rest. He will also find that love reunited is quite enjoyable :). — PolitiTweet.org
