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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@DemFromCT Ipsos as well, which you know... but i'm still noting, lol. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
That is, you clearly see in the national polling that Biden's doing better than Clinton in the same pre-election polling among whites (both with and without a degree) and PA is quite white compared to the nation. Plus, MI+WI haven't been bad for him... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
This from Marist (+9 Biden) in PA is definitely on the high side for him given the averages, but as I pointed out yesterday I thought the PA polling perhaps has been low on Biden given what we've seen in national polls re: demographics. https://t.co/6etNc3SRGa — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
2. Swing state polling has been sorta scattered hit/miss, tho coming in more regularly. But Biden's national lead is evident & significantly greater than Clinton's at this point. If he wins by 7 or 8 (choose ur average) nationally, chance he loses e. college is basically nil. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I got two random thoughts... and here they are... 1. I'm still surprised by folks surprised by the Hispanic #s coming out of FL. Biden's struggles with Hispanics has been evident for months. I guess it took FL to drive it home? IDK. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I'm watching election night 2014... We all looked much younger. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@StuPolitics Next tweet said average, and the polls generally in FL have been better for Trump. But folks pay a lot of money for this stuff (media orgs), so i'm gonna give em their due with their own tweet. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The Florida stuff makes sense to me on the surface. If ur of the belief that Biden's strength relative to Clinton lies with white voters, then FL is a bad state. But PA (mostly white) polling is a little odd to me given MI/WI data, tho I might be making too much of it. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Be careful of the small sample sizes, but this is a pretty consistent picture we're seeing in plenty of polling... This is from FL comparing Marist's final poll in 2016 and their new 2020 poll. https://t.co/tmIMPNjlpz — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Of course, it's well worth looking at the averages, etc. And that will still have Biden ahead in what is a crucial battleground. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
This is... to put it mildly... a strong result for Trump. — PolitiTweet.org
Mark Murray @mmurraypolitics
New NBC News/Marist poll of Florida: Biden 48% Trump 48% Aug 31-Sept 6 of 766 likely voters, +/- 4.5% (This is our first 2020 poll of FL)
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@LoganDobson Winning groups doesn't matter. Winning voters is what matters. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@PatrickRuffini An article I'm literally working on! — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
If I ran a newspaper, there would be a page dedicated to dog birthdays. It wouldn't just be dogs who turn 1. it would be dogs who turn 1, 5, 10, 15, and 18. Obviously, there would be photos and a short blurb about each dog. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I wrote this 3 months ago, explaining that Biden was clearly underperforming among Hispanics. Meanwhile, Trump was overperforming. 3 months later, nothing has really changed except perhaps on the margins. https://t.co/QCrXuif8Qp — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Continues to be some pretty decent polling (relatively) for Trump coming out of PA. Another within the MoE result with Biden +2... Past week we've seen Biden +1 or +3 among LVs per Monmouth, +8 per Quinnipiac, and this +2. https://t.co/Yagzr5jV0O — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I'll also note the results are consistent with the idea that Trump is going to overperform with Hispanics in 2020 compared to 2016. Meanwhile, he'll underperform with white voters, if the polls are correct. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
This is right https://t.co/LaYcKHMp6Z . You could see it in that FL-13 result a few weeks ago too. That was a better result for Biden, but it too was much more consistent to an 18 than 16 FL map. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Back in 2018, a similar result in Miami-Dade was *just* enough for Scott/DeSantis to squeak out a narrow victory wh… https://t.co/BW7T5KZEBf
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Biden has been running for president for 501 days by count... He's been ahead of Trump for each of those 501 days. No challenger has ever led for that long. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NathanWurtzel it's a shanda — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NathanWurtzel essentially. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I just got sesame chicken... and it arrived without sesame seeds on it. Hmmmm... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
We're at the point now where I ask myself "did something occur today to change the direction of this race?" Cause any day where the answer is "no" is a good day for the leader in the polls (Biden). — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Given recent controversies, let's be clear. Trump would have lost in 2016 if not for his strong numbers w/ current/former military. Any degradation in support from them is v. bad news for Trump. Even a drop to Romney levels may have allowed Clinton to win. https://t.co/rNzslQvI1C — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I don't think any segment has ever devoted so much time to Nebraska's second congressional district https://t.co/6kUqGxp8I4 but it's part of a very real potential map for Biden of Clinton states + AZ + WI + MI and NE-2 to get to 270 EVs exactly. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@PollsterPatrick @MLCypher @DemFromCT Basically, to me, it's simple. If you look at my ratio of the polls look good for Biden vs. Trump... it's just not close. That said (look not a but!), I can recall pubbing this and getting RAKED. https://t.co/DLDOW6pBmj Rather be safe than sorry! — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@DemFromCT OH I know on the latter :)... People are disagreeing on what the fundamentals say. IDK myself, haha. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@DemFromCT It may not :)... (Not a bad idea for an article btw.) But I've learned, few care if the polls underestimate the leader, although the chance of under or overestimate is the same. (Assuming of course you don't expect tightening based on the fundamentals.) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@evansiegfried @NickRiccardi I'd pass on the heat, but I'll def take the Snow. For September 8th, an inch is fine. We'll build by month. 2 inches in October. 4 in November. 8 in December. 16 in January. 32 in February, 16 in March. 8 in April... and maybe another inch in May. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Hit a high of 97 at Denver International Airport... There's a winter storm watch effect for Tuesday. — PolitiTweet.org
