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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I wrote about this yesterday... but @natesilver538 is giving a good reminder. Time is of the essence for Trump. Polls start to get a lot more predictive soon & before any debating begins. https://t.co/y3UVrR73Zm — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Some good stuff in here from @JohnJHarwood on some differences between 2020 and 2016 https://t.co/gGmWECQp5j — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
As I noted https://t.co/rNzslQvI1C ... That's probably on its own worth about a point in the popular vote... and could make the difference in a tight election. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The Fox poll had a veterans crosstab (https://t.co/HUf9KNgA48). It's a small sample size... Trump ahead, but he's down ~10 pts from where he was in 2016. https://t.co/rNzslQvI1C — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@KSoltisAnderson @FoxNewsSunday Best dog ever or bestest dog ever? — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Definitely closer in the live interview polls than say it was a month ago... But the fact is that Biden still holds a clear advantage. https://t.co/h1PWNi9z65 — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NilesGApol Who believes this stuff? — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NathanWurtzel To be fair, it was a decade or more ago, lol. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NathanWurtzel Oh my... I once sat across from him at the California Pizza Kitchen in Scarsdale... That literally shut down this month. Time flies. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
This is a HUGE difference with 2016. Biden's net favorability is... actually positive. Clinton's was down in the dumps negative. https://t.co/vLMXfQguXj https://t.co/I4vhCWFOO4 — PolitiTweet.org
SienaResearch @SienaResearch
Biden Favorability Rating Outpaces Trump’s in All Four States - https://t.co/s22nKhChfr @JoeBiden leads… https://t.co/rHbQSd3sKS
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
"If nothing matters", Biden will win. He's clearly ahead right now. 2020 looks a lot more like 2018 than 2016 in terms of the electoral map and right down the candidate's favorability ratings. Trump is the one who needs something, anything, to "matter". https://t.co/I4vhCWFOO4 — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The clock is ticking for Trump. Polls will become far more predictive by the end of this month. While not perfect, the average difference between the national polling average 35 days out from an election & result is 3 pts since 1972 & 4 pts since 1940. https://t.co/y3UVrR73Zm — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
My reaction to the first batch of Times polls.. https://t.co/jykswjljOM — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Yea, it could definitely be the case that pollsters are missing Trump voters. But it's almost certainly not the case that Trump voters are somehow lying to pollsters. — PolitiTweet.org
Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende
that could cut against the idea of a hidden Trump vote. The idea is supposed to be it's hidden, right? You can tel… https://t.co/GNG89YqZGY
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Right or wrong, there have been 5 ME-2 polls since mid-Summer... Average is Biden +1. I doubt it'll be the tipping point, but ME-2 could play a pivotal role in a very close election. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@islivingston LOOK AT THEM!!!!!!!! — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@islivingston Should make up for it by posting more DOG — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
One interesting nugget in this otherwise fine poll from @pollsterpatrick is Biden's favorable rating has slid up... In-line with some other numbers I have seen... — PolitiTweet.org
MonmouthPoll @MonmouthPoll
NATIONAL POLL: #2020GeneralElection matchup for president: REGISTERED VOTERS: 51% @JoeBiden 42% @realDonaldTrump… https://t.co/dIxLfLTX9J
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@amyewalter This is why I don't talk with people. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Biden can win without Florida (though the map becomes narrower). Trump, otoh, would have less than a 5% shot without FL. So a Biden win would very likely be a knockout blow. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Taking into account all the polling, as I noted yesterday (and yes on Tuesday), Biden's advantage in FL is certainly down from where it once was... but it's still evident... Somewhere on the order of 2.5-3 points... A huge knockout blow if it held. (1/?) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Another day off the calendar, and another day where Trump was on the defensive in a news cycle. We're now inside of 55 days from the election, and Biden leads by 8 nationally and by 5+ in enough states to total 270+ electoral votes. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Why Biden's ahead in a slide... There are a LOT of these voters in the electorate... https://t.co/R2gPDeYDud — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@JohnBerman that doesn't look like cream soda. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
So where are we? I think we know where we are... Biden's up about 8 pts nationally. He's got 5-7 point leads in the states he needs for 270. His lead in Florida is more precious but clear in the averages at 3 points. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I didn't like camp much either. I just wanted to sleep late, play a few video games, watch some baseball highlight tapes, and eat. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
When I was a kid, I hated school more than anything else. I recall that when my Mom drove me to school that someone else had to sit with me in the back for fear I'd jump out the car when at a stop sign. (I had tried it on multiple occasions.) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Whispers: Texas is still quite competitive in the polls. Biden is much much closer to being up there if you believe the polls than Trump is in say Minnesota. Obviously tho, Minnesota is closer to where the national polls are. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@DemFromCT our* — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@DemFromCT I checked out data, fwiw... and didn't see the same thing... It's interested, tho :) — PolitiTweet.org
