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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Let me be clear... as a life long New Yorker... I hope the Yankees get swept. It's cause I care. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NathanWurtzel I'm hoping for a quick elimination. Granted, I already have my rules set. If they lose, this is a legit season. If they win the whole thing, it doesn't count. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Follow anyone but me for analysis during the debate. There are far better people to understand what's cooking during it. I'll be waiting for scientific post-debate polling :). — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Conspiracy theories are both dangerous and dumb. I think a lot less of those who spread em. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I feel the same way about the Astros as Danny Glover felt about Tony Danza's character in Angels in the Outfield... They did their job in 2017 and 2019, and now I really care less what happens to them. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
This is from the Roper Archives... Trump's debate performances have generally been viewed as weak. We'll see if that changes tonight... https://t.co/zlkmDHJuC2 — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Chances are the average is right... but sometimes, of course, it isn't... Which way might the error go? Who knows. But what we can clearly say is Biden heads into debate 1 in much better position than Clinton did. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
What I mean by that is when you see Biden up say 9 or up 5 in a national poll, those results are perfectly normal and perfectly in-line with the average given a margin of error. If we weren't seeing it, then I'd be greatly worried. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
This is a simple chart plotting the distribution of Clinton's margin in the September national polls in 2016 (blue) and Biden's in 2020 (red). What should stand out here is a. Biden's lead is clearly bigger (7 vs. 2ish). b. But also those averages comes with a margin of error. https://t.co/g8lAf6YNcx — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Good fast, folks. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
BTW, I gathered about a dozen polls from September that asked the two-way and four (or five) way presidential race. On average, Biden's margin dropped by a point in the four way. Far less than the 4 points in the ABC/WaPo poll this AM. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Remember, Trump not losing ground isn't good enough for him. He's behind. Every day Trump is not making up ground is a bad day for him. Tough to imagine him making up ground on a day like today. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
And I don't wanna hear the refs stuff. The Refs had a horrible call early that turned the game completely, and that was clearly illegal contact anyway. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
3-0. Just the way the we drew it up. #billsmafia — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@JMilesColeman You might be underselling with Harrison is doing here!... Truly impressive given the prez topline and lack of real trend towards the Dems in the state at-large. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Arizona + Colorado + Maine + North Carolina. Democrats clearly have a lead in all four Senate races. They need a net gain of 3 for a majority if Biden wins... and they're there if the current numbers hold, even with a loss in Alabama. https://t.co/vhClh06wfv — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Back in 2016, Democrats couldn't believe Trump was competitive with Clinton. (So much so some often dismissed polls showing a competitive race.) This year it's clear that some GOPers can't believe Biden is clearly leading Trump. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
How Trump's base first appeals have backfired https://t.co/C1TlC5KXl6 You see it well in this AM's ABC/WaPo poll. He's doing much better with conservatives than in 2016, but doing significantly worse w/ liberals/moderates. The result? Losing by a lot more now overall than in 2016 https://t.co/mdfsK9aqqv — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Two new national polls out before the debate: NYT/Siena C. has Biden 49% to Trump 41%. ABC News/WaPo has it Biden +10 in the two-way & +6 in the four-way... averaging to an 8 pt Biden lead as well. Pretty clear what's happening here https://t.co/ViUNiHUxys https://t.co/LJrXNeCDIq — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@A_agadjanian party id has boomed or busted sometimes... As I said tho, i like to check both... So if Trump has more GOP support (which he does) now vs. 2016. I want to see that among conservatives. (He does) https://t.co/JQrs1FPGZh — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@A_agadjanian Must admit IDK what's shaking pre-2000... but at least over the past 20 or so years, ideology, at least on a year-to-year basis, has been pretty stable https://t.co/lLA7YxGWOA (Moderates perhaps have lost some ground to libs over long-term) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Party id is an attitude and not necessarily stable... and while ideology is also an attitude, it tends to be stabler. Any finding I find within a party id group (e.g. Trump doing better with GOPers) I try to confirm with its ideological sibling (e.g. conservatives in this case). — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NathanWurtzel Knew when i was typing it i was setting myself up... Just ordered poke. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NathanWurtzel Interesting. I like a crispy outside and a very wet inside. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NathanWurtzel Salmon is great. I like it very much close to the raw side. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Biden continues to eat into Trump's edge among Non-College Whites. Doing ~10 pts than Clinton did in pre-election polls. Biden's best path right now clearly is one of two maps (Clinton states + MI + PA + WI or Clinton states + AZ + MI + NE-2 + WI)... https://t.co/qyZtROqLxS — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@Nate_Cohn That would be a question I'd have no answer to if it were my building... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Heard a megaphone outside... The person behind it was urging people to fill out the Census. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I had forgotten that it was about a year ago that Bill de Blasio dropped out of the presidential race. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NathanWurtzel praying for some rain? — PolitiTweet.org
