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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@EsotericCD Honestly more wondering what happens to the Iowa caucuses than what you said... because I think what you said is quite true & not really all that questionable. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
So is now the right time to note that Senate control will be determined by 2 runoffs in January in a state where Joe Biden currently leads in by less than 10k votes? — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I'll add this is the exact scenario a lot of folks were looking at when we said statistically Biden had a better chance than some other Dem candidates. It wasn't that he would run miles ahead. It was that in a tight election it would matter. Seems to have mattered. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Stats like this are going to be chewed over post-election, I feel. Currently, GOP House candidates lead Dem House candidates in PA by 128k (or 2 points) statewide. A small sliver of the electorate went GOP for House & Dem for president, and it made all the difference. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Biden had a view of the electorate (both primary and general) that many of his opponents did not share. That view,… https://t.co/zEGKiQZ6mY — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
While the margin was not what pre-election polls suggested, statistically it is quite the achievement for Biden. He beat a 20+ person primary field. Came back after losing IA+NH+NV. And then became the 1st man to defeat a sitting president since 1992. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
It seems to me that some people are screaming outside my window. I wonder why. Did something happen? — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Soft served chocolate ice cream, hot fudge, chocolate sprinkles, chocolate crunchies, whipped cream, and a cherry o… https://t.co/r1oFWR33d7 — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@ComedyCellarUSA I can't fall asleep on set. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Currently in PA, the GOP House candidates are winning by 2 points if you total it up statewide... Biden is beating… https://t.co/ErH8BKu4mj — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
One reason "shy Trump voters" doesn't make as much sense as you'd think as an explanation for polling errors this y… https://t.co/nSZkUWHXSg
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I gotta get some Popeyes. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@SeanTrende Not watching this ad with the sound on, but I think I know this one... And for the record, I love puppies. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NathanWurtzel House GOP did ridiculously good. Candidates matter. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
A look at the cumulative statewide House vote in states like GA, PA and WI suggests that the prez race in these sta… https://t.co/zoja3C1EaW — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@Nate_Cohn I wrote about this too https://t.co/QIMvlDWLAZ... There wasn't any great "insight" here. But it was part… https://t.co/yjuDHUrTXW — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I went on the air a couple of times in the closing days of the campaign with this graphic. It was just the 2020 pol… https://t.co/ZMjcqsmxVv — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Folks, you should think of % point and vote margins when trying to figure out if Biden's getting what he needs in s… https://t.co/0U7ozrCtn6 — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I'm drinking a hot cocoa, which is much better than coffee. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I got the hankering for a bagel. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
My own personal feeling is that most solid post-election analysis can be had when all the votes are counted and we… https://t.co/jnl7MrnIAI — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
In a number of tv segments, I noted that two telling bellwethers in PA were Erie and Northampton. These were Obama-… https://t.co/LaIlzdaZy1 — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The Ohio visit was an interesting one by Biden... but they knew their bread & butter was the Great Lake battlegroun… https://t.co/uRtEO8WwFz — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@BenjySarlin @PatrickRuffini Much better bettors than I am if that's the case... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
On the one hand, the betting markets suggested a fairly competitive race down the stretch. On the other, they went… https://t.co/d7eCNS5l8E — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
But to judge the extent of the polling errors we really got to wait until vote counts are more complete. I'll leave… https://t.co/tJnDdgHNCG — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@EsotericCD the national polls were off more than last time, but not OMFG type. And simply knowing Biden's break ev… https://t.co/8jrDZZw5OR — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@EsotericCD To me, the errors look very similar to 2016... The only difference may have been the polls roughly gett… https://t.co/SGl4qTr5Oa — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
It ain't a shy Trump thing if Susan Collins is beating her polls by a ton... That is, the problem doesn't seem to be Trump specific... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Would be quite something if Senate control came down to two runoffs in the same state in January. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@SeanTrende YES! — PolitiTweet.org
