(((Harry Enten)))

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

My own personal belief is that in an 8 person field in which we never got a one-on-one, voters might have benefitted from getting a direct comparison. What do you all think? https://t.co/2Jpd8TYW3D — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@ForecasterEnten @taniel by this I mean, the NYT editorial board as a "voter" should know that voters are complicated because they are too. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@Taniel one thought... The Times endorsed both Garcia and Bragg... Voters are complicated, and while I think the crime issue helped Adams... It's not a straightforward story. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@freedlander Amazing! — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

That moment when someone u know and respect tweets something into ur timeline that u wouldn't see otherwise, drags you down, you think of sending an email, but decide against it because... Why bother? — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

This points out something I'm not sure I comprehended in real time. A campaign about Covid became one about crime. Hurt Yang. https://t.co/eIP8gmhHmk — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

By my math, Adams is winning 57% of the vote in majority Black Assembly districts. That is in a field with double-digit contenders. Wiley is a distant second with 22%. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

This is true. Gotta go back to I believe 1989 for a turnout this high. I will admit I was surprised to a degree. https://t.co/ohNdVrAurW — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@jodyavirgan I think i know those 4 people. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Turnout was highest for a NYC mayoral primary this century. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I'm going to close up here, but two quick thoughts. 1. It's not about being the perfect candidate. it's about being the right candidate for the moment. 2. Candidates don't tell the electorate what they want. The electorate tells candidates what they want. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Betting against the voting choice of Black women 45+ in a Dem primary in NYC or the U.S. for that matter is a bad proposition. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@ryanmatsumoto1 I'd argue a *great* night. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

BTW, you know how many times a candidate leading 10 points or greater in round 1 has lost in a ranked choice US election this century? 0. History isn't a perfect predictor, but Wiley/Garcia gotta hope the absentees shrink Adams lead to have decent shot. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@ForecasterEnten To be clear here, I'm talking about initial preferences. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Folks, there are a bunch of absentee ballots out there not in this count. I'd be surprised if it moves too much in mayoral (besides flipping 2 and 3 where it is close), but in like Manhattan DA... Gonna need some time to see what those ballots have. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Polls look pretty darn good right now in NYC initial preferences. We'll see what happens. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Election Day Update: Currently raining here in Manhattan. Thank you. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@Slade Look 35 to me. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

IDK if I mentioned it on here (I may have), but NYC Dem primary polls have a history of undershooting candidates backed by Black voters. (Kinda reminds me of southern Dem primaries in a way...) Obviously, past != future here. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@Taniel Still counting on a VERY large election day turnout to get to 900k. We'll see... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

This definitely looks like a Yang fade to me, tho not in all of the polls... Not really sure what to say about the rest, but Adams looks favored to me... (The ranked choice doesn't look all the different in the polls that have it...) https://t.co/f4z1wRaC24 — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@nymetrowx YESSSSSSSSSSS — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Vaccinated Republicans are going out far more than vaccinated Democrats... https://t.co/nom862LckY — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@ForecasterEnten Process arguments are usually (not always) ones that won't hold if the shoe is on the other foot... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

There hasn't been a single poll this month that had Adams losing in initial preferences... There have been polls that have him losing in the final round of ranked choice voting... I mean we all get this, right? — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

This is by far the least predictable NYC mayoral primary since 77... Frontrunner is below 25% & we have ranked choice voting. Adams is the favorite, but if Garcia (especially), Wiley or Yang won I wouldn't be surprised. https://t.co/ur55INzT67 — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I don't drink regular soda anymore, but I gotta be honest... I never could taste the difference between Coke made with cane sugar and Coke made with high fructose corn syrup. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I swear different shapes of pasta taste different. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

How Trump turned Russia into a partisan issue. "47% of Democrats saying Russia [is our greatest enemy] and just 6% of Republicans saying the same thing." https://t.co/zn8brLWTME — PolitiTweet.org