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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
RT @JohnBerman: BREAKING!!! Wikileaks Founder Julian Assange arrested and in custody in London. Deals on @NewDay shortly. @CNN — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@GerryDales OMG. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I'll further note that I think there is enough evidence out there to suggest that Biden DID lose some favorability among Dems over the last few weeks. It does NOT seem to have hurt his top-line. Some folks who weren't voting for him don't like him. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I think this is somewhat instructive from St. Anselm New Hampshire poll out tonight. I looked at top 5 candidate's best group among moderates, somewhat liberals or very liberals. Suggest a bit of a clown car in the very liberal lane... leaving Biden along w/ moderates. https://t.co/1EowZMXfTH — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
RT @ShaneGoldmacher: New (small sample) NH poll from Saint Anselm College Biden: 23% Bernie: 16% Buttigieg: 11% Warren: 9% Harris: 7% O'Ro… — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
That Sanders number is something else. — PolitiTweet.org
Matt Viser @mviser
Beto O'Rourke's campaign, which previously announced they had 218k contributions in first quarter, tells me that ca… https://t.co/kRcvS7d91Y
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NathanWurtzel I thought they were pretty good. I used to them to tell multiple folks that Bibi was gonna serve another term as PM. IDK what people are talking about... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Still my favorite story about something I wrote over the last month... RT saying I was getting "roasted" on this platform after proving with polling that Twitter was not representative of the larger Dem electorate. https://t.co/pCV90szttW https://t.co/HSDOHvtJQ1 https://t.co/t4n1fs5VIA — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Currently 31 and heavy snow in Minneapolis. I am so incredibly jealous. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
BTW, the numbers from Wisconsin are pretty consistent: Trump would probably lose there if the election were held today, BUT (!) the state looks to be to the right of the nation. Good news for him if you have a tight national race a la 2016. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The $6 million Warren raised is not a disaster, as I think some thought the fundraising would be. I mean it's not great, but the money raised at in the final week of Q1 is a bright spot. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
It's not a pure horserace, but numbers from others confirm that Wisconsin is a good state for Sanders. He crushed Clinton there in 2016. — PolitiTweet.org
Nick Riccardi @NickRiccardi
Sanders doing better in Wisconsin than he has in national polls https://t.co/UTUU6ML0eE
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Everything I learned about black holes is from the movie Eddie https://t.co/dglYqn5P7e — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
My general thought is not to sleep on anyone... We have a long way to go... — PolitiTweet.org
Garrett Haake @GarrettHaake
Don’t sleep on @ewarren - this is the second cattle-call event in two weeks where she’s been VERY warmly received:… https://t.co/QPpYdbiPBr
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@aedwardslevy I've seen other question wording that seems to confirm the general findings from Harrisx/Hill and Morning Consult... but yea wording will def matter as to the degree... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
And here is the disconnect I think sometimes occurs. Many voters aren't electing a policy book. They are electing a person. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Wanna jump back into that Q-Pac poll from CA for a second. They have a good question on there about whether you want a prez candidate who has good policy ideas or who you think makes a good leader. Dem/Dem leaners say good leader by 14 pts. https://t.co/3ROWGfoSg2 — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@MonmouthPoll What time are we expecting this to drop Patrick? :) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@LoganDobson It turns out the black hole is black. News at 11. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Liked this piece https://t.co/8kvmAttv3P (Granted, it doesn't hurt that Amy mentioned me a few times, haha... but seriously, it's a good read!) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@KSoltisAnderson Make sure you give Wally lots of treats. It's hard work having to pose for so many photos! — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Even among Democrats, they think it was bad. Still, Ocasio-Cortez is favored for re-election. 61% of Dems say they would vote to re-elect her. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Voters in AOC's district, NY-14, thought by a 57-32 margin that it was a bad thing when Amazon cancelled its plans… https://t.co/UrCxrR7vj3
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Forecasting snow is hard... Also can I move there? https://t.co/hgwvVfAgwT https://t.co/5nBnqIHbv6 — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Always looking for good counterfactuals... So here is 1... YouGov asked this question in the middle of March & this week "who do like more: Biden or Sanders". Among Dems, Biden was up 23pts on that question in March. Today up only 11. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
But when I see polls like we have seen in California and Massachusetts this week where the home state senators are running 3rd to Biden/Sanders (admittedly Harris far closer to 2nd than Warren), it suggests particularly Biden's standing isn't all about name id. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Was literally just about to tweet about this. This is after a week of bad news for Biden. Most Dems don't care. He is leading on the strength of electability in Harris' home state of CA... 26%-18%-17% over Sanders and Harris. Buttigieg/Warren at 7%. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
In it's poll of Democratic voters in California this morning, Quinnipiac asked Democrats who they think is most ele… https://t.co/560OZeZ2jk
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Tip at least *20%*. Yeesh. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I also think this crosstab on tipping is quite illuminating. Those who make more say they tip more at restaurants. For example, 61% of those who made 75k or more said they tipped at least 20%. Just 30% of those making less than 30k said they tipped at least 30%. https://t.co/06mNkN3Ffy — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
or at least the voices that came into my feed, haha. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Polling shows most people leave tips of about 15% or less. Most people on Twitter apparently leave tips of 20% or more... https://t.co/ZmD81J9zPU https://t.co/C8XsNJCqsJ — PolitiTweet.org
Derek Summerville @D_Summerville
Companion piece to the Dems on Twitter vs. Dem Electorate article: Tipping Standards on Twitter do not reflect Tipp… https://t.co/BOQRQx0VVi